yoda Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Maybe we get lucky and that area of "enhanced accumulations" down in C to S VA moves north like 50-75 miles. Nah, who am I kidding? But still, an inch of snow is better than nothing looking at this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I wonder who the NWS thinks is going to get screwed out of this one? And I moved to the Shenandoah Valley because we get more snow out here. It does... just not this winter. Playing the averages you made a good choice. Best choice for our region outside the obvious mountains is N. MD. They don’t miss too much usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I wonder who the NWS thinks is going to get screwed out of this one? And I moved to the Shenandoah Valley because we get more snow out here. I hope you don't take this the wrong way, I don't want to rub salt in your wounds its sucked out there lately, but you will absolutely destroy the DC area the next time we get a winter with a lot of STJ action and only marginal temps. And even years where temps are cold you will do as good if not a little better. The same things that are causing your downslope problems now with systems from the west will pile up snow when systems come up to southeast. And there will be a year again where you get several wet snow thumps while DC is raining. It WILL happen. That said, you live in a big time feast or famine area. Your average is higher because of big boom years. But because of the shadow effect nickel and diming doesn't really work well there. So in a bad year it can be just as bad or worse then DC. One reason I picked where I live now (other then its close enough to commute to Baltimore) is also that it kind of has the best of both worlds. You can beat me by some with coastals like 1996/2010/2016 but I usually end up close if not the same most of the time. Usually I am just far enough NW and high up to avoid too much rain with coastal huggers. And in years with nickel and dime northern stream stuff Parrs Ridge upslope usually helps me eek out at least an inch or two if not sometimes more from these things. So I avoid the total absolute dreg crap years most of the time and even in a bad pattern can fight my way to 20" or more 90% of years. That was a big deal to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budice2002 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 It coming down good at the West Virginia and Maryland boarder http://www.chart.state.md.us/video/video.php?feed=90006ca901fa00b10052fa36c4235c0a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I hope you don't take this the wrong way, I don't want to rub salt in your wounds its sucked out there lately, but you will absolutely destroy the DC area the next time we get a winter with a lot of STJ action and only marginal temps. And even years where temps are cold you will do as good if not a little better. The same things that are causing your downslope problems now with systems from the west will pile up snow when systems come up to southeast. And there will be a year again where you get several wet snow thumps while DC is raining. It WILL happen. That said, you live in a big time feast or famine area. Your average is higher because of big boom years. But because of the shadow effect nickel and diming doesn't really work well there. So in a bad year it can be just as bad or worse then DC. One reason I picked where I live now (other then its close enough to commute to Baltimore) is also that it kind of has the best of both worlds. You can beat me by some with coastals like 1996/2010/2016 but I usually end up close if not the same most of the time. Usually I am just far enough NW and high up to avoid too much rain with coastal huggers. And in years with nickel and dime northern stream stuff Parrs Ridge upslope usually helps me eek out at least an inch or two if not sometimes more from these things. So I avoid the total absolute dreg crap years most of the time and even in a bad pattern can fight my way to 20" or more 90% of years. That was a big deal to me. You are generally right. But I chose to live on a ridge to the NW of Winchester because I can get some LE streamers in here in normal years as well. And I usually dont get robbed by the mountains in all reality. It has just been one of those two year stretches where everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. I still think I have a legit chance of an inch from this. And I will most likely beat DC with this event as well. But I wouldnt bet on it. East seems to be the place to hedge your bets this year. And the real kick in the nuts is Richmond is now going to smash me two years in a row unless we get a coastal in February. Richmond beat my total ONCE in the previous 12 years I have lived here prior to last snow season. I am happy for DC to get good snows because usually if they snow I do as well (not this year) but Richmond beating me pisses me off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 It's so close....but don't think it will make it to me before drying up. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lwx&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 56 minutes ago, Cobalt said: DT's first call map I hope he's right... after the trends today I'm not even confident in 1" for areas between I95 and the bay at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Ukie dried up a little as well. We haven't been paying much attention to it, probably because it has been saying we're not getting much snow, but it has been consistent over the last several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, lpaschall said: It's so close....but don't think it will make it to me before drying up. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lwx&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=no It is a lot of virga anyways right now. Radar returns have been over me for about 30 minutes now and nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Richmond beat my total ONCE in the previous 12 years I have lived here prior to last snow season. I am happy for DC to get good snows because usually if they snow I do as well (not this year) but Richmond beating me pisses me off Yup -- I'm pretty much in the same boat re location, move choice, and the really rough patch the last 2 years. I'm used to watching the bigger mountains to the west get frequent smaller snow events while we don't, and watching NE win is to be expected as well.....but watching multiple big snows to the south and east as well is just a bit much. Good thing I am committed to never being reaped! Maybe we can will that little 0.3-0.4 QPF blob that's northeast of us on the NAM down our way? Problem is I think PSU has already been trying to pull it his direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, cae said: Ukie dried up a little as well. We haven't been paying much attention to it, probably because it has been saying we're not getting much snow, but it has been consistent over the last several days. We have pretty solid consensus now. The northern and southern edges have the best chance and everybody in between needs to just accept what falls and move on. There isn't anything lurking in the background that can suddenly change the personality of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 That dry slot that keeps showing up on the HRRR just west of DC scares me. Could make a pretty meh event even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 48 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I wonder who the NWS thinks is going to get screwed out of this one? And I moved to the Shenandoah Valley because we get more snow out here. I had high hopes that I could double my yearly total with this and get over 4 inches for the year.....now, nope. Guess it is back to the nickel and dime show. 2.1 inches for the year so far....2.1 inches. That is 17% of SEASON TO DATE snow, not overall yearly average. Terrible winter out here. I'll enjoy the white ground for another day. Oh, right, it is a event thread..... currently high clouds with the sun poking through and 34.8/23.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 EURO is even more of a disaster but it probably doesn’t matter at this point. I’ll root for my .25”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Euro is pretty much another disaster run for just about 95% of the sub. Northern neck of VA and just south of Emmitsburg PA are the only places that get an inch until you get west of HGR My 1-3" call has about a 1% chance at happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 LWX following the trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We have pretty solid consensus now. The northern and southern edges have the best chance and everybody in between needs to just accept what falls and move on. There isn't anything lurking in the background that can suddenly change the personality of this one. Yup. Euro is drier yet again. I can tell ya I wont be up at 3am looking for pixie dust falling from the sky lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: LWX following the trends Pretty soon the whole map will be white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 Ouch. Yeah that sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 40 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Yup -- I'm pretty much in the same boat re location, move choice, and the really rough patch the last 2 years. I'm used to watching the bigger mountains to the west get frequent smaller snow events while we don't, and watching NE win is to be expected as well.....but watching multiple big snows to the south and east as well is just a bit much. Good thing I am committed to never being reaped! Maybe we can will that little 0.3-0.4 QPF blob that's northeast of us on the NAM down our way? Problem is I think PSU has already been trying to pull it his direction. I am but if I somehow get the .3-.4 stuff down to me it probably pushes the .1-.2 that's over me now down to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Too early for post mortem of course but this event has been really hard to model. The back and front side ridging putting the squeeze on the trough from above played some havoc with models. MANY timing adjustment at short leads. At first, the constant slowing and amplification of the front looked good but in the end it ended up hurting not just here but right up through the entire 95 corridor. Many areas of the urban corridor north of us who are going to get pretty good precip are going to get rain and non-sticking snow. The amplification is driving the northern wave/low on a nearly due N trajectory for a time. The onshore flow in front of it really does a number on the surface and mid levels. The NC/SVA folks are the only lucky ones. Yea, N CT, MA, and NW of NYC are going to do well but that part always looked pretty good. The corridor isn't going to benefit much from this event pretty much anywhere. Personally, I'm glad the NC folks are doing well. You guys think WE have a lot to complain about...try chasing snow along the NC coastal plain and piedmont for 10 years and get back to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Steady light snow going to waste here with the midday sun angle and 32.1 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is pretty much another disaster run for just about 95% of the sub. Northern neck of VA and just south of Emmitsburg PA are the only places that get an inch until you get west of HGR My 1-3" call has about a 1% chance at happening. Yeah, I think we are seeing exactly what PSUHoffman (and others?) was expressing worry about concerning being "stuck in the middle". That possibility was always on the table I suppose, and unfortunately we're looking right at it as a reality. The 1-3" call you made I honestly thought was realistic and reasonable, and would easily be a good bet through at least the DC-Balt corridor. Unfortunately, like I said, we got the scenario we *didn't* want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 15 minutes ago, Cobalt said: LWX following the trends I would be very surprised if I get 2" out of this in Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is pretty much another disaster run for just about 95% of the sub. Northern neck of VA and just south of Emmitsburg PA are the only places that get an inch until you get west of HGR My 1-3" call has about a 1% chance at happening. I will admit this one hurts some. No reason to cry about it and act like a baby though. But it was a decent setup in general and I set my expectations reasonably and even after adjusting then down several times now looks like a total fail anyways. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Its the theme of the winter. Narrow streaks of sw-ne aligned precip that has a hard time hitting us. Unless that area currently along tx/la gulf coast can get it together somewhat and become a bit circular, we get zip . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 This one was easy to let go for me. An inch or so that would have disappeared in 24 hours, if not less. We've already had a number of those. Finding a way to squeeze out some snow is always nice, but we've had numerous events like this already. Give me a snowstorm already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 LOL. It is literally snowing 3 miles from my house according the the Virginia traffic cams. Maybe some of it will make it to me before it shuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: LOL. It is literally snowing 3 miles from my house according the the Virginia traffic cams. Maybe some of it will make it to me before it shuts off. Links to the traffic cams? Just curios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Links to the traffic cams? Just curios. www.511virginia.org. Look at the traffic cam in the farthest NW corner of VA US522. It is the only snow you will see in the state right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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