cae Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Swiss high-res model has cut back as well. It looks similar to the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, clskinsfan said: LMAO! you just cant make this stuff up anymore out here. It is snowing literally 8 miles from me right now. And that is going to miss my area AGAIN. Followed by a dry patch and a coastal taking over to rob all of the moisture to my south. I would kill for an inch at this point. I am just sick of this pathetic winter. Might need to take a break for a while. The RGEM and just about everything else folded to the Euro like a cheap suit. Disregarding the Euro when it shows fail is a lesson that should be learned for all of us. It is Dr. No for a reason. Wasn't the EURO the one that went super in on this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Wasn't the EURO the one that went super in on this event? I believe there were two decent Euro runs, 12z Friday had a nice area-wide 4-7 inches and then 12z Sunday had 2-3 inches but a nice smattering of EPS big hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Wasn't the EURO the one that went super in on this event? Last couple of runs have been dry as a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Jeez RGEM is pretty brutal too for the metro areas. CMC drier as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Rule number 1: We just don't do complicated very well-----even marginally complicated doesn't usually go well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Wasn't the EURO the one that went super in on this event? It had a couple nice runs. Canadian did too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: LMAO! you just cant make this stuff up anymore out here. It is snowing literally 8 miles from me right now. And that is going to miss my area AGAIN. Followed by a dry patch and a coastal taking over to rob all of the moisture to my south. I would kill for an inch at this point. I am just sick of this pathetic winter. Might need to take a break for a while. The RGEM and just about everything else folded to the Euro like a cheap suit. Disregarding the Euro when it shows fail is a lesson that should be learned for all of us. It is Dr. No for a reason. But how do you know which version is right? It threw out both our best and worst case scenarios in alternating runs over the 3 days leading up to the event. That is why its been unhelpful to making a valid forecast. Yea one of its progs turned out to be right but when its showing every possible outcome what good is that? I guess you could validly argue that once it settled in on multiple runs of "crap" at very close leads that it became believable but by then all the other guidance was headed that way and even without it we would have seen the writing on the wall and what good is a global that only settles on a stable solution 24 hours out? I guess given the pattern we should just assume the worst case scenario runs are the accurate ones but persistence forecasting is lazy and risky because eventually the exception will show up and you will bust badly just assuming every storm will repeat. Patterns don't give you advanced warning when they are about to flip. Frankly even this event isnt really the status quo as the last few events screwed over some places of interior northeast that are getting nailed by this one. Those using persistence up there would have failed this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 DT's first call map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: LMAO! you just cant make this stuff up anymore out here. It is snowing literally 8 miles from me right now. And that is going to miss my area AGAIN. Followed by a dry patch and a coastal taking over to rob all of the moisture to my south. I would kill for an inch at this point. I am just sick of this pathetic winter. Might need to take a break for a while. The RGEM and just about everything else folded to the Euro like a cheap suit. Disregarding the Euro when it shows fail is a lesson that should be learned for all of us. It is Dr. No for a reason. The GFS was never in this event more than a frontal passage. The Euro was all over the place. I guess we all wear rose color glasses some times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: DT's first call map That map tells our story quite nicely. I still think it’s over done for RIC but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: That map tells our story quite nicely. I still think it’s over done for RIC but we shall see. Obviously a bit of bias there, but GFS did suggest 6" for just West of that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Sun trying to break through the overcast and up to 31.1/22.9 here. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: Obviously a bit of bias there, but GFS did suggest 6" for just West of that area. Yeah I saw that. It’s not the first event where RIC stomped us. I remember an event some years back it started snowing in the metro area and then poof it collapsed on itself and RIC got slammed. Coastal robbed the moisture. Sure this will happen same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: Yeah I saw that. It’s not the first event where RIC stomped us. I remember an event some years back it started snowing in the metro area and then poof it collapsed on itself and RIC got slammed. Coastal robbed the moisture. Sure this will happen same way. Didn't they get a decent event out of March 6 2013? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I have to say. I was not expecting a complete meltdown to the negative today. I thought we would hold steady 1-2. After the info we got over the last 4 hours, you truly begin to think if this will now be a complete miss. Talk about trend not your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Didn't they get a decent event out of March 6 2013? Yeah that might have been it. ORF and RIC...money locations so far..who would have called that one back in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Didn't they get a decent event out of March 6 2013? Yes, h5 was closed off to the west of RIC and the SLP did a SE jog off the coast instead of east. The Euro was the only model showing the SE jog but it still busted with QPF here. The dynamics went off the rails down by RIC and west of town and it took all the punch out of the WAA part of the storm here. Then the CCB got robbed due to the really unusual SE jog of SLP off the coast. All models blew the QPF part. That's something we almost always see with closed ULL systems. There are ALWAYS surprises. Some good and some not good. It's the nature of the beast. Math can only predict so much when it comes to closed off/energetic storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Maybe we will get lucky with this one. At this point anything more than a dusting would be considered lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yes, h5 was closed off to the west of RIC and the SLP did a SE jog off the coast instead of east. The Euro was the only model showing the SE jog but it still busted with QPF here. The dynamics went off the rails down by RIC and west of town and it took all the punch out of the WAA part of the storm here. Then the CCB got robbed due to the really unusual SE jog of SLP off the coast. All models blew the QPF part. That's something we almost always see with closed ULL systems. There are ALWAYS surprises. Some good and some not good. It's the nature of the beast. Math can only predict so much when it comes to closed off/energetic storms. That storm was a confluence of so many fails at once. The qpf didnt bust HORRIBLY but when dealing with marginal temps the difference between heavy snow and 32 degrees vs light/moderate snow and 35 degrees is HUGE. Had we been 5 degrees colder it still would have been a 5-8" snowfall based on qpf so a minor bust given predictions but not the total fail it became. Furthermore if the upper low had been a little north, or the surface low not sunk southeast for some reason, or the convection not robbed the moisture transport....so much conspired to go wrong. Sound familiar? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 For us folks 25 miles and further south of DC, our only hope is to get into a northern-most band from the coastal. The limit as how far north that will be on most models is just south of Fredericksburg. A 30 mile adjustment isn't far fetched, but I think the writing is on the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That storm was a confluence of so many fails at once. The qpf didnt bust HORRIBLY but when dealing with marginal temps the difference between heavy snow and 32 degrees vs light/moderate snow and 35 degrees is HUGE. Had we been 5 degrees colder it still would have been a 5-8" snowfall based on qpf so a minor bust given predictions but not the total fail it became. Furthermore if the upper low had been a little north, or the surface low not sunk southeast for some reason, or the convection not robbed the moisture transport....so much conspired to go wrong. Sound familiar? LOL I'd take the same setup again any day. No two storms do the same thing. That one conspired to do everything in its power to hurt but other ones do pretty well. Vday 14 comes to mind. The mixing/lull and drip was well modeled but the progression worked great for some. I got 3.5" from the ULL pass for a total of 16.5". That storm broke in my favor. March 13 did not. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 JMA is still with us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 That original high of 41 IMBY seems quite a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 59 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Right on que the WWA goes out: https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=18458592 Is it spring yet? LWX seems to think different in their quick morning AFD update: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 11 AM UPDATE: A steady light snow continues over northwestern Maryland. 12z model guidance trickling in has raised confidence enough to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory for central Virginia (higher amounts/better forcing) and the metro areas (impactful for the Wednesday morning commute despite lighter amounts around 1 inch). The central Shenandoah Valley appears it will be in a bit of a snow shadow in the lee of the ridges, and this is showed nicely in latest hi-res guidance. Therefore, left those areas out of the advisory for now with generally around an inch expected tonight. Meanwhile, patchy freezing fog is being observed over the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay, but this should abate as temperatures warm above freezing through about noon or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I wonder who the NWS thinks is going to get screwed out of this one? And I moved to the Shenandoah Valley because we get more snow out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'd take the same setup again any day. No two storms do the same thing. That one conspired to do everything in its power to hurt but other ones do pretty well. Vday 14 comes to mind. The mixing/lull and drip was well modeled but the progression worked great for some. I got 3.5" from the ULL pass for a total of 16.5". That storm broke in my favor. March 13 did not. lol Oh I agree. People are sometimes too IMBY focused when the meso scale features that determine if you win or lose are often up to chance and chaos. The rain snow line setting up 10 miles the wrong way is NOT a pattern problem. The upper low missing you by 30 miles and robbing moisture is bad luck. That same general pattern again could be a 10" snowstorm easy. People that focus on IMBY sometimes miss how much chance factors into the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yes, h5 was closed off to the west of RIC and the SLP did a SE jog off the coast instead of east. The Euro was the only model showing the SE jog but it still busted with QPF here. The dynamics went off the rails down by RIC and west of town and it took all the punch out of the WAA part of the storm here. Then the CCB got robbed due to the really unusual SE jog of SLP off the coast. All models blew the QPF part. That's something we almost always see with closed ULL systems. There are ALWAYS surprises. Some good and some not good. It's the nature of the beast. Math can only predict so much when it comes to closed off/energetic storms. March 6, 2013......We got like 6-8" in Spotsylvania where I lived at the time. Talked to family up toward DC and it was just White Rain, that was a crazy day. Snowed pretty heavily for a time. Doubt this is similar around Fredericksburg, but down to the West of Richmond looks ok. I think I might be to high with my guess of 1.2" at EZF.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'd take the same setup again any day. No two storms do the same thing. I agree. If this plays out as currently modeled, we got some bad luck with this one. But the setup was close to something better with just some small shifts. As the Euro showed, there was a chance we could get some help from the second wave to make this a good event. The GFS seemed to be trending that way but then stopped at 06z this morning. C'est la vie. If nothing else, this has been a fun event to track. Watching all of the pieces come together has certainly been an education for me, and as usual I really appreciate all of the posters here who help explain to the rest of us what's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: JMA is still with us I always liked the JMA. Euro is trash this year. GFS is quirky. NAM cant ever be trusted. But then there is the JMA. The JMA is due for a coup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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