nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Mdecoy said: Gonna be honest, I don't know how to determine times on the HRRR. It says valid 6:30UTC, do I subtract 6 hours from that like the models? Based on it's track record this year, I wouldn't worry about it. But we are 5 hours off UTC right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Mdecoy said: Gonna be honest, I don't know how to determine times on the HRRR. It says valid 6:30UTC, do I subtract 6 hours from that like the models? UTC is easy. Subtract 5 hours during winter and 4 hours during DST. And you need to know military time conversion as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Meso models continue to troll me, with NAM, 3k NAM and RGEM all greater than 0.20" liquid here. Judging by radar, precip may start reaching the ground soon which would be ahead of schedule. Currently 28/23 with calm winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Great post PSU. Thanks for that. One of the things I noticed yesterday is that the precip seems to shut off when the winds at around 850 mb near us start coming from the west For example, here are the base reflectivity and 850 mb streamlines from last night's Euro run. You can see how the dry air pushing in from our west has shut off precip in this area. It looks like the front has been pulled through more quickly in our area, causing the bend in the 850 mb streamlines from southerly (to our south) to westerly (near us). Do you know what is causing this bend to occur? Does the developing coastal from the first wave effecitvely pull the front through faster around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The thing about this event is it isn't a "wasted" opportunity. Some general longwave features are briefly turning favorable to make something happen but this period isn't a "window". Not even close honestly. Small details are causing us to minimize the potential as well. It happens everywhere. Tables will turn eventually. They always do. Looking at each event individually is good for learning how all the intricate details work. PSU's post earlier was excellent. Sometime in the future we'll be posting about how things are breaking in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, cae said: Great post PSU. Thanks for that. One of the things I noticed yesterday is that the precip seems to shut off when the winds at around 850 mb near us start coming from the west For example, here are the base reflectivity and 850 mb streamlines from last night's Euro run. You can see how the dry air pushing in from our west has shut off precip in this area. It looks like the front has been pulled through more quickly in our area, causing the bend in the 850 mb streamlines from southerly (to our south) to westerly (near us). Do you know what is causing this bend to occur? Does the developing coastal from the first wave effecitvely pull the front through faster around here? Yes its the wave. The circulation around that wave is going to interfere with the frontal boundary. It turns the flow just west enough behind it (west/southwest vs south/southwest) to cut off the moisture convergence along the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yes its the wave. The circulation around that wave is going to interfere with the frontal boundary. It turns the flow just west enough behind it (west/southwest vs south/southwest) to cut off the moisture convergence along the boundary. Great, thanks for the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The thing about this event is it isn't a "wasted" opportunity. Some general longwave features are briefly turning favorable to make something happen but this period isn't a "window". Not even close honestly. Small details are causing us to minimize the potential as well. It happens everywhere. Tables will turn eventually. They always do. Looking at each event individually is good for learning how all the intricate details work. PSU's post earlier was excellent. Sometime in the future we'll be posting about how things are breaking in our favor. Good points... We get down when we aren't the ones things are breaking right for. But each storm, and pattern sometimes, only is going to end well for a relatively minor area of the country or area we look at. The problem is we only care if its snowing here. Every few years we get lucky and the repetative pattern puts us under the bullseye over and over. The rest of the time we wait for that 1 or 2 times a year that we get "lucky". And unfortunately luck isnt on our side and a couple times a decade we have a complete dud year. Thats our climo. But we arent being particularly screwed above and beyond that. As you go north your chances increase for snow. Simple. For where we are latitude wise we are doing about as well over the long term as expected. Places at our latitude across the CONUS dont get snow constantly and consistently. They get their times and go through their pain also. We have our 2010s, 2014s, 2015s, and then we have the years in between where we pay for it. And sometimes we get lucky with a January 2016 in what would have been an otherwise crap year. And other times we dont like 2017. But sooner or later we will get a decent snowfall again. And judging by some of the indicators for February it might be sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Sigh...GFS trimmed totals as well. I’d probably cut my O/U numbers for most of us in about half from last night. MBY: 0.6” BWI and IAD: 0.5” DCA: 0.3” hoffman/mappy: 1.7” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Sigh...GFS trimmed totals as well. I’d probably cut my O/U numbers for most of us in about half from last night. MBY: 0.6” BWI and IAD: 0.5” DCA: 0.3” hoffman/mappy: 1.7” Some of the guidance still places the tail end of the banding close enough to my northwest that I have one eye on it just in case but it's bleeding the wrong way every run and experience tells me let it go and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Last night's fv3 had an interesting solution compared to the gfs op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 So basically most of us will wake up tomorrow with flurries and a 2-hour school delay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 35 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Meso models continue to troll me, with NAM, 3k NAM and RGEM all greater than 0.20" liquid here. Judging by radar, precip may start reaching the ground soon which would be ahead of schedule. Currently 28/23 with calm winds. Was just looking at traffic cams...looks like flakes falling just west of HGR. Anything there yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Here are the last two 00z runs of the GFS and the FV3 (GFS-in-training). GFS on left and FV3 on right. FV3 continues to be more generous with snowfall, and both bumped up snowfall overall last night. ETA: Ninja'd by BTWRx! I'll leave the image here because it also shows the previous night's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, cae said: Here are the last two 00z runs of the GFS and the FV3 (GFS-in-training). GFS on left and FV3 on right. FV3 continues to be more generous with snowfall, and both bumped up snowfall overall last night. ninja'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, smokeybandit said: So basically most of us will wake up tomorrow with flurries and a 2-hour school delay? That’s kind of bullish. Maybe it will go that way if it over performs but I think we need to ratchet down expectations. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: That’s kind of bullish. Maybe it will go that way if it over performs but I think we need to ratchet down expectations. Just my 2 cents. How do you overperform with flurries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Was just looking at traffic cams...looks like flakes falling just west of HGR. Anything there yet? Flakes just started reaching the ground. Hasn't really affected visibility yet, as its still very light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, cae said: Here are the last two 00z runs of the GFS and the FV3 (GFS-in-training). GFS on left and FV3 on right. FV3 continues to be more generous with snowfall, and both bumped up snowfall overall last night. ETA: Ninja'd by BTWRx! I'll leave the image here because it also shows the previous night's run. I think that is the only model then that shows DC with more than 1 inch of snow...maybe it can score a coup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Sigh...GFS trimmed totals as well. I’d probably cut my O/U numbers for most of us in about half from last night. MBY: 0.6” BWI and IAD: 0.5” DCA: 0.3” hoffman/mappy: 1.7” My baseline is a half inch and a 2-hour delay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Like I said last night. The trend was drier and drier... and it continues on the 12z runs. As the front slows, it gets robbed of it's QPF... as others have pointed out. Remember a couple of days ago, we were asking the snow gods to slow the front down. Be careful of what we wish for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: My baseline is a half inch and a 2-hour delay. My baseline is just waking up tomorrow. As long as I do that then everything else is gold. I know. I know. Banter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 It doesn't even look like good rates anymore. The Kuchera is less than the 10:1 output for Baltimore City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Jeez RGEM is pretty brutal too for the metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: It doesn't even look like good rates anymore. The Kuchera is less than the 10:1 output for Baltimore City This seems like it'll be on par with the "blizzard" for our region. That was about 1/3 of an inch of snow for me and then some breezy conditions and cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: Jeez RGEM is pretty brutal too for the metro areas. Right on que the WWA goes out: https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=18458592 Is it spring yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 More snow West, South, and North of us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Right on que the WWA goes out: https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=18458592 Is it spring yet? Well it will be during the morning commute... so the WWA warranted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 " WHAT...Snow expected. " I agree, what snow expected? That should all but guarantee a two-hour delay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 LMAO! you just cant make this stuff up anymore out here. It is snowing literally 8 miles from me right now. And that is going to miss my area AGAIN. Followed by a dry patch and a coastal taking over to rob all of the moisture to my south. I would kill for an inch at this point. I am just sick of this pathetic winter. Might need to take a break for a while. The RGEM and just about everything else folded to the Euro like a cheap suit. Disregarding the Euro when it shows fail is a lesson that should be learned for all of us. It is Dr. No for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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