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Jan 16/17 Event Obs/Disc


mappy

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26 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I can't see how this low throws any precip back our way.  It exits stage right as soon as it forms and no model has precip getting anywhere near us.  

What we are searching for is the trough being in a position to be able to influence the surface low earlier in the evolution where it can draw the low back towards the coast while in the process of going for the capture. Though it still has a ways to go the NAM suite made a good move in that direction. The GFS? Not so much. 

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Based on spotter reports the “jackpot zone” was basically eastern HoCo/northern AA up through northern Bmore city and southern Bmore county up into central Hartford county. One spotter report of 2.2” in Perry Hall. Most of that area had around 1.5”. 

Of course the second jackpot zone was up in northern Frederick and Carroll counties and points westward.

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39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Based on spotter reports the “jackpot zone” was basically eastern HoCo/northern AA up through northern Bmore city and southern Bmore county up into central Hartford county. One spotter report of 2.2” in Perry Hall. Most of that area had around 1.5”. 

Of course the second jackpot zone was up in northern Frederick and Carroll counties and points westward.

Same old, same old. lol  But congrats to them for the millionth time! ;)

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

The closed low looks good as far as proximity goes but look at the midlevel winds. The circulation is extremely compact. We would need hp to the n-ne to drive easterly midlevel flow. 850mb winds like this act like a precip Pac Man on the NW side. 

gem_mslp_uv850_neus_4.png

Thanks for this. I always wondered what exactly drove precipitation to go in certain directions in certain cases. While I am sure this is not a complete treatment of the subject it is certainly helpful to someone like me who doesn't fully understand weather. It seems like a lack of HP to the north has been a problem with us getting precip this season in general. 

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4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Received a piddly 0.3”. Total on the year: 5.8” plus a glaze of ice. As boring as a trip to Pittsburgh.

just stop at seven springs on your way there.  i've only visited pitt as a kid, but i remember going through the tunnel and then all of a sudden the city shows up.  kinda cool.

0.5" is about what fell here.  a true coating.

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This looks to be a overperformer in the tidewater area and lower eastern shore. Coastal low is much closer then modeled. HRRR Now has snow till 9pm with decent rates. Radar looks great aswell. AKQ gonna bust bad calling for a half inch in accomack and Northampton co.

Screenshot_20180117-125924.png

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Based on spotter reports the “jackpot zone” was basically eastern HoCo/northern AA up through northern Bmore city and southern Bmore county up into central Hartford county. One spotter report of 2.2” in Perry Hall. Most of that area had around 1.5”. 

Of course the second jackpot zone was up in northern Frederick and Carroll counties and points westward.

yeah, I need to go find radar for overnight to see where the bands went. I was a bit surprised to see how "low" I was compared to all around me.

 

must be how some of you "southerners" feel sometimes ;) 

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5 minutes ago, Beachin said:

This looks to be a overperformer in the tidewater area and lower eastern shore. Coastal low is much closer then modeled. HRRR Now has snow till 9pm with decent rates. Radar looks great aswell. AKQ gonna bust bad calling for a half inch in accomack and Northampton co.

Screenshot_20180117-125924.png

This winter has been nice to them.

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hmmm. really need LWX to update their map

the bolded "Bentley Spring" is probably a Parkton resident, I am the low Bentley Spring spotter. 

I swear... if mr map under measured.... 

...Baltimore County...
   2 E Perry Hall         2.2   915 AM  1/17  Trained Spotter         
   1 N Middle River       1.8   957 AM  1/17  Trained Spotter         
   5 SSW Bentley Spring   1.5   958 AM  1/17  Trained Spotter         
   1 SSE Catonsville      1.5   830 AM  1/17  Trained Spotter         
   1 NNE Perry Hall       1.5   939 AM  1/17  Trained Spotter         
   1 ENE White Marsh      1.5   835 AM  1/17  Trained Spotter         
   1 NNE Upper Falls      1.3   900 AM  1/17  Trained Spotter         
   1 ESE Reisterstown     1.0   842 AM  1/17  Trained Spotter         
   1 SW Glyndon           1.0   857 AM  1/17  Trained Spotter         
   Cockeysville           0.9   700 AM  1/17  Broadcast Media         
   1 E Bentley Springs    0.6   700 AM  1/17  Trained Spotter 
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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

yeah, I need to go find radar for overnight to see where the bands went. I was a bit surprised to see how "low" I was compared to all around me.

 

must be how some of you "southerners" feel sometimes ;) 

Contrary to what many believe, we actually do pretty well most of the time. The only thing that can screw us from time to time is the marginal storms where mixing can become an issue. Which is typically 30-40% of the time.

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3 hours ago, 87storms said:

Nice coating. I do see wet main roads tho. Parking lot did well. Let’s not sugarcoat it though...we need a legit advisory level snow here. This is the last coating I’ll accept lol (it is a nice scene out tho).

It's literally a sugar coating here. Maybe .2 at best

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20 minutes ago, mappy said:

yeah, I need to go find radar for overnight to see where the bands went. I was a bit surprised to see how "low" I was compared to all around me.

 

must be how some of you "southerners" feel sometimes ;) 

I’m surprised at your low total. I’ll tell you I went to bed expecting virtually nothing. Radar looked like hot garbage around 10pm last night. 

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m surprised at your low total. I’ll tell you I went to bed expecting virtually nothing. Radar looked like hot garbage around 10pm last night. 

I'm never having my husband measure for me again. :lol: 

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12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m surprised at your low total. I’ll tell you I went to bed expecting virtually nothing. Radar looked like hot garbage around 10pm last night. 

It really did. Between the mesos and the radar, it looked like they were all synced up on giving us almost nothing. I was really surprised when I woke up and looked out the window. Ended up with around 1.5 inches here.

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20 minutes ago, WVsnowlover said:

Congrats to everyone that got snow. Not even a dusting out here. Still waiting on the first inch of the season here in Charles Town.

Yeah that's pretty surprising how narrow the bands were, we have a solid coating on everything up on the mountain (maybe 1/4").....but if you look out towards Charles Town it's all brown.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m surprised at your low total. I’ll tell you I went to bed expecting virtually nothing. Radar looked like hot garbage around 10pm last night. 

Was definitely one of the bigger snow surprises when I woke up in recent memory. I expected pretty much nothing, perhaps a trace at best. It was a solid inch+ even on the roads.

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