psuhoffman Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 2 hours ago, stormy said: You're such a lucky fellow, why should you worry? Be thankful you don't live in D.C. where that Democratic mayor (Muriel Bowser) suffers from??? Threatening people with 90 days in jail and a $5000 fine for leaving their homes!!!!!! Back to the here and now, my yard is at 38% for March. But, I am heartened this morning since my 48 hr. 5 model blended qpf has increased from .22 yesterday to .38 this morning. That is a step in the right direction to ameliorate my 2.35" deficit for March. Oh, by the way for PSU, the county hasn't zoned those corn and soybean fields to mandate that they properly utilize available moisture!!! Hilarious!!!! At least this time the map agrees with your point. But a 30 day anomaly over such a relatively small geographic area isn’t that significant. If that kind of pattern were to continue another 60 days or so it would become a problem. My guess is it won’t. These things tend to naturally balance out. These short term anomalies aren’t even really anomalies. The mean is just a bunch of anomalies averaged together. You are missing the forest from the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: At least this time the map agrees with your point. But a 30 day anomaly over such a relatively small geographic area isn’t that significant. If that kind of pattern were to continue another 60 days or so it would become a problem. My guess is it won’t. These things tend to naturally balance out. These short term anomalies aren’t even really anomalies. The mean is just a bunch of anomalies averaged together. You are missing the forest from the trees. OK, you are a smart person regarding climate cycles and weather patterns. I'll give you that much. Will you please give it your best shot to explain why this hopefully short term anomaly has occurred? The 00z ECMWF believes it will continue for at least the next 10 days though the precipitation hole does shift a little northeast. For at least the past month, if the GFS, ECM or GEM sees a break coming, it always repeats as we get to 2 - 5 days before showtime. Please give me an educated and reasonable explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 On 3/31/2020 at 12:39 PM, stormy said: OK, you are a smart person regarding climate cycles and weather patterns. I'll give you that much. Will you please give it your best shot to explain why this hopefully short term anomaly has occurred? The 00z ECMWF believes it will continue for at least the next 10 days though the precipitation hole does shift a little northeast. For at least the past month, if the GFS, ECM or GEM sees a break coming, it always repeats as we get to 2 - 5 days before showtime. Please give me an educated and reasonable explanation. PSU : I am waiting patiently. Please don't disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 The 06z GFS believes the next 10 days will be an instant replay: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 9 hours ago, stormy said: PSU : I am waiting patiently. Please don't disappoint. Split flow progressive pattern with lack of phasing (until OTS). Southern stream moisture stays south. Northern stream races by to the north. It happens. But it’s unlikely to persist forever. Especially as we move into Summer patterns when different factors become more critical to our precipitation prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Split flow progressive pattern with lack of phasing (until OTS). Southern stream moisture stays south. Northern stream races by to the north. It happens. But it’s unlikely to persist forever. Especially as we move into Summer patterns when different factors become more critical to our precipitation prospects. Thank you! I I have been thinking too much zonal flow that puts us in the shadow of the western mountains and too much repetitive high pressure surface and aloft over Virginia that simply dries out systems trying to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 1 hour ago, stormy said: Thank you! I I have been thinking too much zonal flow that puts us in the shadow of the western mountains and too much repetitive high pressure surface and aloft over Virginia that simply dries out systems trying to move in. You are describing the micro effects of the macro pattern I discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 17 hours ago, stormy said: PSU : I am waiting patiently. Please don't disappoint. You’re still odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 9 hours ago, Round Hill WX said: You’re still odd. I'm odd in the respect of being concerned about a recurring pattern that has resulted in less than 50% rainfall for a large portion of my immediate region during the past month. I'm odd in the respect that I am very sensitive to the hardship that will be created for many people engaged in agricultural pursuits if this pattern repeats and persists during April and May. Reasonable people would have the attitude, hey, I hope you folks down in the central valley do better with rainfall during April than you did during March. Unfortunately, you don't seem to be in that reasonable category. I agree with PSU in believing that we will see a change during the next month or two. If we don't, things will be bad for a lot of people. Have A good day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 EURO WB 10 day precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 14 hours ago, Weather Will said: EURO WB 10 day precip. I'm sorry Will but as I explained last week, 10 day precip. maps almost always dry up recently. To dry from 2.56 to .85 is the same old story, but that will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 WB 18Z GEFS still signaling a storm next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 17 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS still signaling a storm next week. I'll take about 8 - 12 inches of wet snow. Wonderful moisture additive. 49 years ago today, my area received 8 - 10 inches of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 WB EURO thru next Monday....hopefully some well needed rains on the way for the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 17 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB EURO thru next Monday....hopefully some well needed rains on the way for the MA. I have received .39" of much needed rain during the past 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 On 4/8/2020 at 8:18 AM, stormy said: I have received .39" of much needed rain during the past 24 hours. A 6 am 3 model blend (GFS/ECM/GEM) gives Augusta County 1.68 rain late Sunday through Monday. If this verifies, it would be the greatest event rainfall since January 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 I received 1.33" of rain during the last 16 hours. Wonderful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted June 13, 2020 Share Posted June 13, 2020 Portions of northern Virginia, Maryland and southeastern Pa. are getting very dry . The next 10 days are marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted June 14, 2020 Share Posted June 14, 2020 I’ve picked up about 2 and a half inches of rain in the past six weeks. Not the best start to the growing season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 14, 2020 Share Posted June 14, 2020 A few areas of 'abnormally dry' have developed in the region. None in VA btw. This will likely become more expansive over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted June 14, 2020 Share Posted June 14, 2020 30 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: A few areas of 'abnormally dry' have developed in the region. None in VA btw. This will likely become more expansive over the next week. Northern Virginia is quite dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 14, 2020 Share Posted June 14, 2020 The source of the map I posted is the US Drought Monitor, and the map was released on June 11. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted June 14, 2020 Share Posted June 14, 2020 The last 30 days have averaged less than 50% rainfall in the Hagerstown/Martinsburg area and Dale City/Fredericksburg region. The next 10 days looks like well below normal rainfall on the 00z Euro. My earlier short-term deficits have shifted northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 This thread could start getting active if current forecast pan out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 I have greater odds of getting struck by lightning while holding a winning Powerball ticket in one hand and a winning Mega Millions ticket in the other, than Southern Maryland does of ever having a drought in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: This thread could start getting active if current forecast pan out Stop it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 7 hours ago, WxUSAF said: This thread could start getting active if current forecast pan out Seems like a change is in the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 Nice little anti-thesis of the recent cold via Arctic ice melt accelerate displacing cold in the start of warming season/opposite lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 You probably aren't allowed to respond, in another dimension or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 If this pattern doesn't soon change, the Valley may witness the driest May since at least 1979. Only .18" the first 16 days of May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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