MillvilleWx Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I got a whopping .50" over the weekend. Drought remains. I really do feel bad for you man. I've driven through the area, and I can see how you get that shadow effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Strong nino I know. Was just pointing out that precip anomaly wasn't rain. Not the same setup by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 16 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: '83 was a very dynamic storm. Very heavy snow over MD, DC and NoVa during the height with thundersnow across the area. It was a moisture bomb, so the snow consistency was a bit on the wet side, but it was a higher ratio at its height when best lift was centered over the area. My Father told me he ended up with 23" at the end of the storm with over a foot in a 4 hour span. Thundersnow woke him up and visibility was below 100 yards at one point. Great storm. You should go read up on it. One of the best the area has had in last 50 years. Heard about it, and only read about it in a CWG article. Reminds me of what I saw while browsing through the Snowpocalypse 2009 thread where a poster from Long Island had gotten 21" in 7 hours. Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Also, I'm guessing the storm was a very fast mover? Unleashing that amount of QPF in 1 day is pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 5 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I got a whopping .50" over the weekend. Drought remains. 7 day map had you over an inch http://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php?analysis_date=1518393600&lat=38.9337750000&location_name=MD&location_type=state&lon=-77.2668460000&precip_layer=0.75&product=observed&recent_type=today&rfc_layer=-1&state_layer=0.75&hsa_layer=-1&county_layer=0.75&time_frame=last7days&time_type=recent&units=eng&zoom=7&domain=current Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 7 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: '83 was a very dynamic storm. Very heavy snow over MD, DC and NoVa during the height with thundersnow across the area. It was a moisture bomb, so the snow consistency was a bit on the wet side, but it was a higher ratio at its height when best lift was centered over the area. My Father told me he ended up with 23" at the end of the storm with over a foot in a 4 hour span. Thundersnow woke him up and visibility was below 100 yards at one point. Great storm. You should go read up on it. One of the best the area has had in last 50 years. Temp was around 14F out here. 32" in 16 hours. Thundersnow in the afternoon. 5"/hr rates for a time. You could literally look outside and watch it pile up. It was truly an epic event here. #2 all-time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Temp was around 14F out here. 32" in 16 hours. Thundersnow in the afternoon. 5"/hr rates for a time. You could literally look outside and watch it pile up. It was truly an epic event here. #2 all-time. That's completely insane. Can't imagine 5" per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 hour ago, yoda said: 7 day map had you over an inch http://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php?analysis_date=1518393600&lat=38.9337750000&location_name=MD&location_type=state&lon=-77.2668460000&precip_layer=0.75&product=observed&recent_type=today&rfc_layer=-1&state_layer=0.75&hsa_layer=-1&county_layer=0.75&time_frame=last7days&time_type=recent&units=eng&zoom=7&domain=current That includes the 2 events. My total was under 1" for both. Not exactly drought-busting rains. It has been notably wetter this month, but when you've had 30% of normal precip since early fall, even 1" in a week is a drop-in-the-bucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: That's completely insane. Can't imagine 5" per hour. It's the only time in my life I've seen it. 1996 was a bigger storm, in the prime of low-sun season, and much colder afterwards, so I give it the edge, but for intensity nothing could match that 1983 storm. I got 37" (1996) over almost 36 hours. Imagine getting 32" in just 16 hours. It averaged 2"/hr. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 7 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: I really do feel bad for you man. I've driven through the area, and I can see how you get that shadow effect. You'd think the Rockies were to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: It's the only time in my life I've seen it. 1996 was a bigger storm, in the prime of low-sun season, and much colder afterwards, so I give it the edge, but for intensity nothing could match that 1983 storm. I got 37" (1996) over almost 36 hours. Imagine getting 32" in just 16 hours. It averaged 2"/hr. Incredible. That's absolutely insane. Didn't measure properly, but I'm guessing the Blizzard of 2016 hit about 28" here, and Feb 2010 was probably in the same ballpark, but I can't imagine getting more than 36". That's almost biblical levels of snowfall. Really makes me wanna move towards Western VA (out near Winchester) when I'm older. After all, big events like those are a once in a half decade thing, so it's almost like you can't miss them. Also, how much snow did you get on March 5th, 2013? Feb 5th 2010? Just curios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: That's absolutely insane. Didn't measure properly, but I'm guessing the Blizzard of 2016 hit about 28" here, and Feb 2010 was probably in the same ballpark, but I can't imagine getting more than 36". That's almost biblical levels of snowfall. Really makes me wanna move towards Western VA (out near Winchester) when I'm older. After all, big events like those are a once in a half decade thing, so it's almost like you can't miss them. Also, how much snow did you get on March 5th, 2013? Feb 5th 2010? Just curios. I got 9" in the March 2013 storm, and 27" from the Feb 2010 storm. Be careful what you wish for in coming west; I got 3" from the Feb 9, 2010 storm. (All these totals we're discussing were when I lived in Front Royal; moved to Stephens City in summer 2010). You're best bet is to move north of Winchester, or the higher terrain of eastern and southern Warren Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I got 9" in the March 2013 storm, and 27" from the Feb 2010 storm. Be careful what you wish for in coming west; I got 3" from the Feb 9, 2010 storm. (All these totals we're discussing were when I lived in Front Royal; moved to Stephens City in summer 2010). You're best bet is to move north of Winchester, or the higher terrain of eastern and southern Warren Co. Yeah, my idea was to move to Winchester, or at least somewhere close to there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Yeah, my idea was to move to Winchester, or at least somewhere close to there. Avoid Stephens City.... at all costs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Easy come, easy go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Quote 000 AXUS71 KLWX 151508 DGTLWX DCC001-MDC003-005-025-027-031-033-510-VAC013-059-061-107-153-179- 510-600-610-683-685-222300- Drought Information Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1000 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS AFTER RECENT RAINS... SYNOPSIS... As of February 13th 2018, the U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that significant improvement has occurred in drought conditions, with improvements in status of one to two categories in most areas. There are no longer any D2 (Severe Drought) conditions denoted across the mid-Atlantic region. D1 (Moderate Drought) conditions are now designated only for a small -- but significant -- portion of the area, including the District of Columbia, Baltimore City, parts of Harford, Baltimore, Howard, Anne Arundel, Montgomery and Prince Georges Counties in Maryland, and parts of Fauquier, Stafford, Prince William, Loudoun, and Fairfax Counties in Virginia, as well as all of Arlington County and the cities of Manassas, Manassas Park, Falls Church, Fairfax, and Alexandria. The D1 area covers 11 percent of our service area, versus 55 percent last week. Most of the rest of the area, east of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains, is now designated as D0 (Abnormally Dry). This also includes the cities of Harrisonsburg, Waynesboro, and Staunton west of the Blue Ridge. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... State and Local Declarations: A Drought Watch has been declared by the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) for all of northern Virginia, except for King George County, Highland County, and communities whose water supplies come from the Potomac River or Occoquan Reservoir. A Drought Watch has been recommended for Highland County but has not yet been declared. A Drought Watch has also been declared by the Maryland Department of the Environment (MDE) for its Central and Southern regions, which include Frederick, Carroll, Harford, Charles, Calvert, and Saint Mary's Counties, as well as portions of Montgomery, Howard, Anne Arundel, Prince George's, and Baltimore Counties that are not serviced by WSSC or Baltimore City water systems. Both of these declarations date back to before the recent rainfall. No other state or local declarations are known as of the time of this statement. Hydrologic Impacts: Soil moisture remains below normal in portions of the area, but with some improvement due to recent rains. The rain has finally put a stop to the persistent downturn in groundwater levels, and in fact, many have seen a multiple foot water level rise since the beginning of February. This even includes the groundwater monitoring well in Orange County, Virginia, which is now above the prior record lows, having risen a few feet in the last week. Some municipalities implement voluntary or mandatory water restrictions when streamflow levels drop. Please check to see if your community is included in these water restrictions. CLIMATE SUMMARY... For the first time in months, we can finally say that recent conditions have been wet. For the first half of February, rain (combined with melted snow, where appropriate) amounts have ranged from around two inches in the Potomac Highlands to 3-4 inches in most areas, with a swath of 4-6 inches extending either side of a line from Charlottesville VA to Fredericksburg VA to Annapolis MD. These amounts are above normal across the board, and more than four times normal in the heaviest locations. These rains have largely eliminated winter precipitation deficits, and have started to eat away at rainfall deficits from the fall. Generally speaking, we still need to make up 1-3 inches of steadier rain that can permeate into the subsurface, in order to completely break out of the drought in the areas where drought remains. Some statistics for the major cities in the D1-designated area: (Statistics are preliminary and subject to correction.) WASHINGTON REAGAN NATIONAL (DCA) Data ending 2/14/2018 -------------------------------- Timeframe Total Departure % of Normal ---------------------------------------------------------------- Month to Date 3.90 inches +2.58 inches 295 percent 2018 to Date 4.84 inches +0.71 inch 117 percent Last 30 Days 4.20 inches +1.42 inches 151 percent Last 60 Days 5.05 inches -0.45 inch 92 percent Last 90 Days 5.43 inches -3.25 inches 63 percent Last 120 Days 8.53 inches -3.35 inches 72 percent Last 180 Days 11.84 inches -6.79 inches 64 percent Last 365 Days 37.54 inches -2.20 inches 95 percent 1/2017 - Today 40.44 inches -3.43 inches 92 percent 1/2016 - Today 72.14 inches -11.47 inches 86 percent BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL (BWI) Data ending 2/14/2018 ---------------------------------------- Timeframe Total Departure % of Normal ---------------------------------------------------------------- Month to Date 3.82 inches +2.39 inches 267 percent 2018 to Date 4.82 inches +0.34 inch 108 percent Last 30 Days 4.18 inches +1.17 inches 139 percent Last 60 Days 5.24 inches -0.76 inch 87 percent Last 90 Days 5.96 inches -3.47 inches 63 percent Last 120 Days 9.49 inches -3.13 inches 75 percent Last 180 Days 13.68 inches -6.15 inches 69 percent Last 365 Days 39.95 inches -1.93 inches 95 percent 1/2017 - Today 43.10 inches -3.26 inches 93 percent 1/2016 - Today 83.62 inches -4.62 inches 95 percent PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... The active weather pattern of the first half of February looks to continue in the second half of the month. Rain is expected tonight (February 15) and Friday (February 16), with another system bringing rain -- and perhaps a period of ice or snow on Saturday (February 17). After a break on Sunday (February 18), there is at least a chance of rain every day in the following work week (February 19 through 23). Rainfall totals during the first week of the outlook period, through February 21, look most likely to be between 1 and 2 inches, but with some potential for significantly higher amounts, especially in the Potomac Highlands. Temperatures for the first week of the outlook period look to be generally above to much above normal, with highs today (February 15) and Tuesday/Wednesday (February 20-21) expected to be near or above 70 degrees. Temperatures that warm this time of year often promote heavy rainfall. The 8-to-14 day outlook for week two from the Climate Prediction Center favors continued above normal precipitation, and strongly favors continued above normal temperatures. Brief colder snaps can be expected during the two week period, but are not expected to be the prevailing weather condition. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... Streamflows are near normal to above normal. Given the expected continued rainfall, these conditions are likely to continue. Recent rains have also improved reservoir levels in the Upper Potomac. Bloomington Lake remains about three feet higher than the early January lows; Savage River Reservoir is up around ten feet since early January. Streamflow, groundwater, and soil moisture should all continue to improve over the next week, given the forecast for rain. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... The next scheduled issuance of the Drought Statement will be Thursday, February 22nd, 2018. && RELATED WEB SITES... Additional information on current drought conditions may be found at the following web addresses... US Drought Monitor...http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu NWS Drought Page...http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/drought Climate Prediction Center (CPC)...http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION... National Weather Service...http://water.weather.gov US Geological Survey...http://water.usgs.gov ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... The drought monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA's National Weather Service and National Climatic Data Center, the USDA, state and regional center climatologists, and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites, State Cooperative Extension Services, the USDA, USACE, and USGS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... If you have questions or comments about this Drought Information Statement...please contact... National Weather Service 43858 Weather Service Road Sterling, VA 20166 Phone: 703-996-2200 [email protected] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Droughts tend to dissipate in winter so this comes as no surprise. It remains that we are ill-prepared for the warm season. Maybe some beefy heat domes over the Midwest or even more east than that. Something we haven't seen really since maybe 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Droughts tend to dissipate in winter so this comes as no surprise. It remains that we are ill-prepared for the warm season. Maybe some beefy heat domes over the Midwest or even more east than that. Something we haven't seen really since maybe 2010. Is this a cow manure joke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Another gutter-cleaning downpour last night. Almost .04". Better head to Lowes and get the sand-bags! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 Noticeably dry here in the past week. Soil getting a bit dusty for the first time in months. I think the last big event was a couple weeks ago with the 2 part deal in late March- mostly rain/sleet here for part one and the heavy wet snow for part 2. Been really nothing significant since then. 0.11" for April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: Doesn’t matter. Just normal variation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 Nina is typically dry here. We've had a two year Nina. It's ending now. We probably transition to a wetter long term pattern soon. It is typical cyclical variation. If this were to continue dry another 6-12 months then things would get serious and it would be a historically significant drought. I doubt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 9, 2018 Share Posted April 9, 2018 3 hours ago, mattie g said: Doesn’t matter. Just normal variation. We’ve had so many really light events that it didn’t dawn on me that we were headed back under climo. Mowed the lawn, mostly to pick up the late winter leaves, and there was much more dust than I expected. Soil a few inches down seems fine, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 9, 2018 Share Posted April 9, 2018 i wondered if we were dry recently. It figures. i had put down a weed killer and hoped ma nature was going to do the watering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 9, 2018 Share Posted April 9, 2018 11 hours ago, MN Transplant said: We’ve had so many really light events that it didn’t dawn on me that we were headed back under climo. Mowed the lawn, mostly to pick up the late winter leaves, and there was much more dust than I expected. Soil a few inches down seems fine, though. It's a little surprising that it's been that dry in the last month, but in no way do I think we should be thinking too hard about any long-term effects. If we're still parched come July or so, then I think we can start talking about issues. I need to get the dethatching rake out to pick up the holly leaves that came down this winter. The dryness and cold did a number on the holly in my front yard - it lost at least 1/3 of the leaves by the time the windstorm finished. Those leaves choke the life out of a lawn since they don't break down easily. Once I get those up, I'll probably get to mowing for the first time this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted April 9, 2018 Share Posted April 9, 2018 I got a whopping 0.91" for March. 2.25" for the "wet" Feb. 1.67" for Jan. .40" for Dec. 1.10" for Nov. Drought has been constant here since the fall. Hell, it's pretty much never-ending here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 6 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I got a whopping 0.91" for March. 2.25" for the "wet" Feb. 1.67" for Jan. .40" for Dec. 1.10" for Nov. Drought has been constant here since the fall. Hell, it's pretty much never-ending here. But that's pretty typical of a Nina winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: But that's pretty typical of a Nina winter. Here, it's pretty typical of every winter. I think my point was more how local the dryness has been. Most of the region has received significantly more, especially in Feb and Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 20 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Here, it's pretty typical of every winter. I think my point was more how local the dryness has been. Most of the region has received significantly more, especially in Feb and Mar. On 2/20/2018 at 8:12 AM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: The snow events in the desert are a special kind of thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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