stormy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Qaanaaq said: It is not mundane to those it affects directly : if you live in a rural area reliant on groundwater, or you are a farmer, or your reservoir has stopped overflowing Thank you my friend!!!!! You live in the real world instead of dwelling in fantasy!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Qaanaaq said: Duly noted : abnormally dry - thanks I am being flippant because I think he is going too far with this. Yes we are in a low level drought. And I don't mean to be rude towards farming interests and other areas where it is having an effect. But right now what we're experiencing is part of typical cyclical weather. And it's an effect not a cause when we discuss snow. The Nina pattern among other things is causing both the lack of snow and precipitation. Droughts are an effect more than a cause. If droughts caused drought then we would never get out of them. Droughts tend to persist as long as the pattern causing them persists and then it ends and so does the drought. So sorry if I came off dismissive but I'm tired of the agendas. Between the global warming and the drought and the government conspiracy and NWP arguments we can't keep anything on topic anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am being flippant because I think he is going too far with this. Yes we are in a low level drought. And I don't mean to be rude towards farming interests and other areas where it is having an effect. But right now what we're experiencing is part of typical cyclical weather. And it's an effect not a cause when we discuss snow. The Nina pattern among other things is causing both the lack of snow and precipitation. Droughts are an effect more than a cause. If droughts caused drought then we would never get out of them. Droughts tend to persist as long as the pattern causing them persists and then it ends and so does the drought. So sorry if I came off dismissive but I'm tired of the agendas. Between the global warming and the drought and the government conspiracy and NWP arguments we can't keep anything on topic anymore. We are not in a low level drought. We are in a moderate approaching serious drought. This is the worst precipitation deficit anytime during the past 40 years for January in Virginia. This is the TOPIC. Can you understand this?? We argue and thrash about snow. Snow doesn't fall copiously during a drought. Who cares about snow?? We need precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am being flippant because I think he is going too far with this. Yes we are in a low level drought. And I don't mean to be rude towards farming interests and other areas where it is having an effect. But right now what we're experiencing is part of typical cyclical weather. And it's an effect not a cause when we discuss snow. The Nina pattern among other things is causing both the lack of snow and precipitation. Droughts are an effect more than a cause. If droughts caused drought then we would never get out of them. Droughts tend to persist as long as the pattern causing them persists and then it ends and so does the drought. So sorry if I came off dismissive but I'm tired of the agendas. Between the global warming and the drought and the government conspiracy and NWP arguments we can't keep anything on topic anymore. Gotcha. It seems that I read somewhere that drought/dry conditions can have an effect (albeit, minor) on atmospheric pressure- dryness driving the pressures up - I thought that was interesting and often wonder if minor rain or snow events might slowly lower them, thus breaking the drought. Cause and effect - chicken and the egg - anyway, cheers! Here's to the breaking of the snow drought ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 hour ago, stormy said: We are not in a low level drought. We are in a moderate approaching serious drought. This is the worst precipitation deficit anytime during the past 40 years for January in Virginia. This is the TOPIC. Can you understand this?? We argue and thrash about snow. Snow doesn't fall copiously during a drought. Who cares about snow?? We need precipitation. You win. Your right. The earth is scorched. The apocalypse is upon us. It will never rain again. Fleas and ticks will rule the earth. Flee scurry run for our lives. The great dryness is upon us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said: You win. Your right. The earth is scorched. The apocalypse is upon us. It will never rain again. Fleas and ticks will rule the earth. Flee scurry run for our lives. The great dryness is upon us. What's this I hear about a drought? Meh. Get back to me when the pendulum swings and we get flooding rains. Would like the heads up so I can go out buy lumber for my Ark before they sell out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: What's this I hear about a drought? Meh. Get back to me when the pendulum swings and we get flooding rains. Would like the heads up so I can go out buy lumber for my Ark before they sell out. Vice Regent says we're all gonna be under water. This guy thinks we're heading for scorched earth. Can we stick them in a room and let them fight it out? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 <-----not on well water. I run faucets at home all the time because I can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1.85" since Veteran's Day. Not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: 1.85" since Veteran's Day. Not great. DROUGHT!!1!!!1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 There is certainly a feedback loop that sets up which can exacerbate and extend droughts. Around here, that region would probably need to be to our WSW for it to amplify our problems. Haven't looked towards the mid-west to see how they are doing with ground moisture. Dry conditions now - while they suck - won't be a big problem until we get to the growing season. If we haven't entered a wetter pattern by then, there will be big problems by late spring. One effect of a drought that is irrefutable is that it equals warmer temps. We could be headed into an epic summer heat nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 triggered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 25 minutes ago, Paleocene said: triggered Forbidden post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 33 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 1.85" since Veteran's Day. Not great. "Not great" is 20/20. Most of Virginia and Maryland has been in an abnormally dry pattern since early September. There is nothing apocalyptic about this as some seem to believe I have been insinuating. Perhaps, my approach to this fact was incorrect. If so, I am sorry. This pattern has resulted in much of Virginia now being classified as being in a moderate drought. This is not minor and it is not major. But, it has serious implications if it persists much longer and it almost certainly is a factor in our low snowfall for many locations. Last winter I was also in an abnormally dry pattern and received only 4 inches of snow compared to a normal 24 inches. This dry pattern broke in April and I received normal to above normal rainfall through the summer until another dry pattern began in September and persists. During January of 1996, I received 33 inches of snow during an abnormally wet month that witnessed 9.36 inches of qp compared to a normal 2.95". Normal to above normal snowfall often correlates to normal to above normal precipitation. The reverse is also true. I convert snowfall to qp at a 10/1 ratio unless my 13 inch freeze resistant rain gage indicates otherwise. This pattern will break and when it does, we may swing to above normal precipitation as Mother Nature tends to balance. Normals are only averages of extremes. The question is will it break in February, March or April. Our late winter snowfall is probably contingent on the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormy said: "Not great" is 20/20. Most of Virginia and Maryland has been in an abnormally dry pattern since early September. There is nothing apocalyptic about this as some seem to believe I have been insinuating. Perhaps, my approach to this fact was incorrect. If so, I am sorry. This pattern has resulted in much of Virginia now being classified as being in a moderate drought. This is not minor and it is not major. But, it has serious implications if it persists much longer and it almost certainly is a factor in our low snowfall for many locations. Last winter I was also in an abnormally dry pattern and received only 4 inches of snow compared to a normal 24 inches. This dry pattern broke in April and I received normal to above normal rainfall through the summer until another dry pattern began in September and persists. During January of 1996, I received 33 inches of snow during an abnormally wet month that witnessed 9.36 inches of qp compared to a normal 2.95". Normal to above normal snowfall often correlates to normal to above normal precipitation. The reverse is also true. I convert snowfall to qp at a 10/1 ratio unless my 13 inch freeze resistant rain gage indicates otherwise. This pattern will break and when it does, we may swing to above normal precipitation as Mother Nature tends to balance. Normals are only averages of extremes. The question is will it break in February, March or April. Our late winter snowfall is probably contingent on the answer. Hopefully this all does turn for the better and we develop a moderate El Nino come next Fall. Looks like we may break out of this La Nina, but we all remember saying that last year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Hopefully this all does turn for the better and we develop a moderate El Nino come next Fall. Looks like we may break out of this La Nina, but we all remember saying that last year too. I agree completely, we usually have more generous precipitation during an El Nino in winter because of a more active stj. But, Jan. of 96 which was very wet averaged -0.9c. Go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 11:56 AM, stormy said: I agree completely, we usually have more generous precipitation during an El Nino in winter because of a more active stj. But, Jan. of 96 which was very wet averaged -0.9c. Go figure I don't think dca has ever had 3 extreme dud winters in a row (though this year isn't done yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I don't think dca has ever had 3 extreme dud winters in a row (though this year isn't done yet). 2011, 12, &13? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: 2011, 12, &13? 2011 was no dud, but I see why you mentioned that. No other 3 year span comes close to those though. eta: 1949-1953 may have been bad even with the low double digits overall, but the law of averages resulting from 2012-2013 ended in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 33 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: 2011, 12, &13? 2010/2011 actually was closer to an average Nina. In fact, I think it was above average for the typical Moderate La Nina, with DCA getting near 10". 1/26/11 was also incredibly memorable too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 3 hours ago, Cobalt said: 2010/2011 actually was closer to an average Nina. In fact, I think it was above average for the typical Moderate La Nina, with DCA getting near 10". 1/26/11 was also incredibly memorable too. You can't weight it against what amounts to lowered expectations based on ENSO state. It was either BN, or it wasn't. 10" amounts to about 60% of DCA climo, no? 60% on a test gets you an 'F'. And, as you mention, that total basically came in one 5 hour storm. Basically, nothing else for the winter. Better than many winters, but still bad enough IMO to include in that awful stretch of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: You can't weight it against what amounts to lowered expectations based on ENSO state. It was either BN, or it wasn't. 10" amounts to about 60% of DCA climo, no? 60% on a test gets you an 'F'. And, as you mention, that total basically came in one 5 hour storm. Basically, nothing else for the winter. Better than many winters, but still bad enough IMO to include in that awful stretch of winters. According to this CWG article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/12/everything-you-need-to-know-about-snow-in-washington-d-c/?utm_term=.faff75a19b3e The average Moderate La Nina winter gives DC 10.8" of snow, which is also near the Median I believe. Certainly not awful, but bad from the typical standpoint of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Not really possible. Can I have a job? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Regarding ENSO, I think SSTs are so warm right now we would default to +0.5c as the new average, especially in the Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 I just summed the past two and a half months, and less than 4" here since October 30. I have no idea what that means in term of a drought, but I'm pretty confident that going forward it means that I need to make sure my sump pump is working well in March and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 There's a small patch near Fredericksburg in severe drought: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 23 minutes ago, KingJWx said: There's a small patch near Fredericksburg in severe drought: Some relief hopefully with this weekend's system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 37 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Some relief hopefully with this weekend's system It will take 5 - 10 inches of rain over a slow period of 3 - 5 weeks to remove this drought condition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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