Drought

[MN Transplant]

3 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

I thought I remembered some sort of water restrictions a long time ago, and found this article from 1999:
Washingtonpost.com: Region Learned Lessons From Past Droughts

I was 19 at the time so didn't really care about water :). Thought the article had some good insight into what happens when we get dry. One thing people around here really don't think about are wells. Even here in howard county the entire western part of the county is not served by public water. Might be 20-25% of the county population.

It is funny, that article was posted on August 17th, 1999.  In August/Sept of 1999 at DCA there was over 15" of rain   

All we need to do is complain!

[mdhokie]

@mattie g might care more if they put pool filling restrictions up and cramp his swim schedules! 

[mdhokie]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

It is funny, that article was posted on August 17th, 1999.  In August/Sept of 1999 at DCA there was over 15" of rain   

All we need to do is complain!

LOL, if only that worked in winter as well. I edited the post to change the link to the whole archive. Its kind of fun reading through it from start to "omg too much rain".

[pazzo83]

8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I think it is precisely because we are in a relatively wet part of the country and don't get droughts that the dry periods seem so anomalous.  Our vegetation is acclimated to regular precipitation and then there are H2O's water supply comments.

The concern arises if the dry pattern continues into summer.  That's where the evapotranspiration maxes out.  And the other problem is that as we go into later summer the chances for organized convection nearly vanish.  So, you get only spotty dry relief.

I guess I'm saying that this is a notable start to the year and could portend problems down the road, but a few well-placed systems could also bring us right back to normal.  So, only a slightly elevated level of concern so far.

Exactly - by late summer we're banking on tropical systems, which might be an issue this year.

[mattie g]

12 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

@mattie g might care more if they put pool filling restrictions up and cramp his swim schedules! 

You definitely have that right!

[MN Transplant]

6 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Exactly - by late summer we're banking on tropical systems, which might be an issue this year.

The good news, I just ran a very rudimentary analysis of Jan-Apr vs May-July precip, and there is a positive correlation but it is so slight as to pretty much consider it random.

[WxUSAF]

11 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The good news, I just ran a very rudimentary analysis of Jan-Apr vs May-July precip, and there is a positive correlation but it is so slight as to pretty much consider it random.

May and June are our wettest months and developing Nino can’t hurt that. So we could fill that deficit in a hurry if things align. But if not, will be a crispy July-August.

[MN Transplant]

Ian's on top of it:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/04/14/drought-conditions-dry-dc-virginia-maryland/

Moderate drought for the DC area

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?VA

[NorthArlington101]

[MN Transplant]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Where's the winter 23-24 thread!?

[WxWatcher007]

16 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Where's the winter 23-24 thread!?

Haven’t you heard? It’s never going to snow again so the thread was discontinued.

[Its a Breeze]

6 hours ago, mattie g said:

Really the point I'm trying to make is that we don't really "drought." We get dry, but how often are things so bad that we need to think of it as a drought? And if we're like 5" below normal precip over a few months, people start talking about it, but if we're 5" above normal precip over a few months, there's virtually no discussion.

I'm definitely playing devil's advocate in here, but referring to dry periods as "drought" does trigger me

Got it.

But, it's not us. "Drought" is used by NOAA, USDA, et al. when specific conditions are met. We've been below normal since late fall (actually we've only had one above normal month since August,) but we weren't in "drought" conditions until mid-late March. And even still, it's not the whole region.

If we were in a region where it wasn't constantly wet, and we were 5" above normal, it would be talked about as flooding would likely start to be a concern.

[stormy]

2 hours ago, Its a Breeze said:

Got it.

But, it's not us. "Drought" is used by NOAA, USDA, et al. when specific conditions are met. We've been below normal since late fall (actually we've only had one above normal month since August,) but we weren't in "drought" conditions until mid-late March. And even still, it's not the whole region.

If we were in a region where it wasn't constantly wet, and we were 5" above normal, it would be talked about as flooding would likely start to be a concern.

I am happy to see more people connect with the reality of an expanding NOAA classified "moderate drought" over northern and eastern Virginia. 3 weeks ago, I seemed to be the only one concerned. Droughts cost billions of dollars every year. They create financial disaster for the people who feed America. I live in an agricultural area and have good friends who produce the crops that feed America, including Mattie.  Drought causes crop failures and results in higher prices for everyone at the supermarket.

Depending on severity, drought can severely affect every person in many ways.

I was friends with the former state climatologist for Virginia, the late  Dr. Patrick Michaels.  Dr. Michaels pointed out that to have a good growing season Virginia needs to go into the growing season wet, because of very high evaporation rates in May through August.

We are going into the growing season very dry this year. The last 45 days since March 1, I have received 30% of normal rainfall. We are on the way to be declared a drought disaster area before the summer is over unless this pattern breaks down. It probably will change because of the changing Enso condition.  We can only pray for this change, for You, Me and even Mattie.             

 

[32º]

I tilled my 100'x24' garden today. The soil was more dry than I ever remember for this time in the spring. At least the soil, now tilled can retain more rain as it occurs. With this prelude, I am wondering what is in store for us this summer.

[nj2va]

[stormy]

3 hours ago, nj2va said:

The CPC is wrong more often than right with these 6-10 and 8-14 day maps.

If we had received the rain predicted by the 6 - 10 day CPC forecast year to date, we would be 5 inches above normal vs. 5 inches below normal.

3 hours ago, nj2va said:

The CPC is wrong more often than right with these 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts.

If we had received rainfall year to date based on these 6 - 10 day maps, we would be 5 inches above normal vs. 5 inches below normal.

[nw baltimore wx]

As @MN Transplant said, rain is a imby sport, and if I hadn’t gotten under that storm on Saturday, I’d be all in on drought. Over 2” here for the weekend while the majority got much less than the forecasted .25 - .50”.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

As @MN Transplant said, rain is a imby sport, and if I hadn’t gotten under that storm on Saturday, I’d be all in on drought. Over 2” here for the weekend while the majority got much less than the forecasted .25 - .50”.

I watered the grass and some of my plants yesterday.

[Paleocene]

Got a few sprinkles over the weekend but no substantial rain. Shady areas still have a good deal of soil moisture, but things are drying out as the sun gets stronger.  I had planted a few small trees hoping for a rainy spring and I find myself dumping hose water on them---blech.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

These cloudless days really accelerate drought, it seems. It's like time is accelerated x1.618

[CAPE]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

These cloudless days really accelerate drought, it seems. It's like time is accelerated x1.618

Probably more like x 1.414. Impact likely offset by dilation though.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The answer to drought is more water. 

[George BM]

Update:

 

 

[H2O]

My grass is already brown and crunchy like August

[mattie g]

22 minutes ago, H2O said:

My grass is already brown and crunchy like August

Interesting. Mine is green and lush and just yesterday got second mow in the last 10 days.

[Maestrobjwa]

13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The answer to drought is more water. 

Buuuuuuuuuu (no literally that's your profile pic )

[Stormchaserchuck1]

lol I believe!

These 2-3" days of rain are followed by 1 good day to be outside, then it's dry again. 

[H2O]

4 hours ago, mattie g said:

Interesting. Mine is green and lush and just yesterday got second mow in the last 10 days.

It’s not dry everywhere but I have patches that are turning brown and crispy to walk on

[North Balti Zen]

 

[MN Transplant]