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Obs Thread 1/15-17


NorEastermass128

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looks like about 3 1/2" here in Ayer...   

noticing rad history shows meso was kind to this area with a decent level 1 2 green band parked quasi stationary over head for a time. 

actually just measured 4" pretty much on the botton on the flat broad cap rail that lines my porch.  that sucker (turns out) is a remarkable snow board - brings my seasonal total as of this moment to 32.75" ... 

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27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Wow radar looks like crap.  Trying to catch up... lollis to 10" still?

Everything is off to the east.  Looks like my area is cooked unless that patch over ALB were to hold together for the 4-6 hours it would take to reach Franklin Cty.  About 2" in Augusta, probably about the same at home - had 1.2" at 7 AM after 6 hr snowfall.  At least the rain-soaked piles get prettied up.

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Meh, the writing was on the wall if one chose to see the models through a different lens.  Less know how to really use the models to be blunt. They are not meant for creating a 98th percentile reproduction of what will take place.  They offer plausibility ...then, it is up to the user to recognize which scenario best fits which model ...based on what that model is designed for, and create their own visualization on where things should go.  Like, non hyrdo versus hydrostatic forcing... as just one example.  Then, if you know a particular model's own bias spectrum, and correct for that, many times these bad reputation guidance sources suddenly become useful...  But most on here are not laboratory Mets and it's a rip and read thing ... I get it. 

I was in and out of the forum musing at times yesterday how the 'tenor' of comprehension was sloped toward the greatest possible interpretation of what could happen relative all indicators.  

It's okay...we're human. People want it to snow ...sooo, their liable to tint impressions that way. Understood.  But the models were 'spraying' solutions non-coherently for cycle after cycle.  I read comparatively far fewer warnings of that red-flag - and I mentioned myself that usually doesn't end well for event profiling... 

It's tough to be perfectly objective about this stuff... I fall victim to my own lens all the time. But it's like asking a food addict what doesn't look appetizing about a buffet and it's hard to get that objective ...

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