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Obs Thread 1/15-17


NorEastermass128

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm seeing a method to his madness...if he wishcasts 6-8", then he coaxes an advisory event out of it.

 

Might be something there...next decent warning event, I may go 14-18" if I really want to ensure 8-10".

It's important to make a map and then post it on the internet.

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8 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

This storm reminds me of an event in 09' or 10'. SE Ma was expecting around 14-16", but only received 2-4" of snow on the backend of a strengthening coastal. Classes were canceled with literally no snowfall accumulation (during school hours) despite observing snow throughout the morning and afternoon. I'm just basing this comparison on vibe/feel and nothing more. My classes have been canceled this afternoon since last night. Currently,  Storrs has roughly 1-2" of snow on the ground. I thought schools and universities have learned from that event... Make your final calls during the early morning hours so the event has more time to materialize. 

Feb 2010... I remember that well.. I was a sophomore in high school. Classes were cancelled during school the day prior for 12-18 as the headmaster called it.

We got slop all days and finally got a few inches at the very end.

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None of you east folks have anything on the west of the river Jan 15 bust. When the ‘best’ model consistently throws you a 30” burger from 72hrs in - all the way up to go time, and you wake up to flurries with a stiff wind...with 4” total...well that stiffy had the night before turns into a flacid state that one has yet been able to recover from.

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1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Refresh my memory on the models and anticipation leading up to that

We were just coming off getting porked (modeled well so we knew it was coming) in the Feb 5-6, 2010 event...destroyed Philly and DC and NYC whiffed when like 10 miles south of them got warning snows and 40 miles south got 15"+. So we were already hungry to get into the game again that winter.

 

Then a really good shortwave was forecasted to slide through the OH valley and spawn a Miller B off the coast of the delmarva and move to near the BM. Most guidance was showing in the range of about 1" of QPF. But some were higher in the 1.5" range...esp for southern half of SNE. Storm had a big circulation. Winter storm warnings were up and the whole region shut down the night before in prep for the storm which was to move in pre-dawn hours. When most people woke up, they found like 1-3" OTG and a putrid looking radar that was all shredded. Some southenr areas did labor their way to 6-8"...and I think far SW CT near NYC actually did pretty well (maybe 10-14?") but the rest of the region was an unmitigated disaster. I think I had a forecast of 8-12" for my clients at the time...and we ended up with like 2-3". Epic bust. The northern edge of the storm got squashed just a bit andit disrupted the circulation up here. Another victim of that exotic NAO block that winter.

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

None of you east folks have anything on the west of the river Jan 15 bust. When the ‘best’ model consistently throws you a 30” burger from 72hrs in - all the way up to go time, and you wake up to flurries with a stiff wind...with 4” total...well that stiffy had the night before turns into a flacid state that one has yet been able to recover from.

That one was one of the worst i can remember of all time

Nov 26th 2014 had a nasty sting as well

This one, i was expecting 0-1, so im not dissapointed

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We were just coming off getting porked (modeled well so we knew it was coming) in the Feb 5-6, 2010 event...destroyed Philly and DC and NYC whiffed when like 10 miles south of them got warning snows and 40 miles south got 15"+. So we were already hungry to get into the game again that winter.

 

Then a really good shortwave was forecasted to slide through the OH valley and spawn a Miller B off the coast of the delmarva and move to near the BM. Most guidance was showing in the range of about 1" of QPF. But some were higher in the 1.5" range...esp for southern half of SNE. Storm had a big circulation. Winter storm warnings were up and the whole region shut down the night before in prep for the storm which was to move in pre-dawn hours. When most people woke up, they found like 1-3" OTG and a putrid looking radar that was all shredded. Some southenr areas did labor their way to 6-8"...and I think far SW CT near NYC actually did pretty well (maybe 10-14?") but the rest of the region was an unmitigated disaster. I think I had a forecast of 8-12" for my clients at the time...and we ended up with like 2-3". Epic bust. The northern edge of the storm got squashed just a bit andit disrupted the circulation up here. Another victim of that exotic NAO block that winter.

Thanks, i was looking at this site (great for past events up to 2013) http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/10-Feb-10.html

while reading that post, looks like far SW and S CT got warning snows.

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8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

That one was one of the worst i can remember of all time

Nov 26th 2014 had a nasty sting as well

This one, i was expecting 0-1, so im not dissapointed

I get angry at Will when he correctly rationalizes that the euro didnt miss by much, like 25-50 miles. I measured the 0z euro 24” line in wnj and compared to verified amounts, on a map, and while east of NYC got the 24” amounts which is about 30 miles. The distance from WNJ to the CTR is closer to 125 miles lol. 

Cant forget about my friends west of the river in MA too, they got shafted from 18-24”. 

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35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm seeing a method to his madness...if he wishcasts 6-8", then he coaxes an advisory event out of it.

 

Might be something there...next decent warning event, I may go 14-18" if I really want to ensure 8-10".

Some have had really good luck with that at times this winter...wishcast it in one way or another.  Like when not a model has one flake in New England but riding heavy snows to NY State.  Then it happened.

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