ConvectiveIA Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Interesting to note the 18z NAM's way-southeastward depiction of this incoming storm that suddenly places the gradient of heavy snow just NW of the greater DSM metro area with light snow here. I don't believe it of course, but I guess you never know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 21, 2018 Author Share Posted January 21, 2018 Excruciating cutoff along the northwest edge of heavy snow. Places in areas of northwest Iowa up towards MSP bounce between basically nothing and 15" of snow depending on which model you look at. Latest NAM completely shuts out the MSP area, while the Euro gives them a good footer. You could make strong arguments for either scenario, as you could have robust convection tug the surface low a little southeastward, but the dry slot could end up shoving everything further northwest as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 2 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Excruciating cutoff along the northwest edge of heavy snow. Places in areas of northwest Iowa up towards MSP bounce between basically nothing and 15" of snow depending on which model you look at. Latest NAM completely shuts out the MSP area, while the Euro gives them a good footer. You could make strong arguments for either scenario, as you could have robust convection tug the surface low a little southeastward, but the dry slot could end up shoving everything further northwest as well. The NAM pushes the system on a easterly detour for awhile before turning it north in the direction it was always headed that kind of thing if pronounced would bury people with snow who least expected it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 NAM moves the snow back north in MN. Has 19'' for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Guidance trying to make up for the Vikings loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Flight made it into MSP just as the snow is beginning to fly. Looks like the heavier stuff is about to move in from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Interested in the localized severe potential in IL today. Robust dry slot moving in. Models firing a broken line of convection around 20z. Looks like a good setup for HSLC tornadoes but obviously that's contingent on enough instability developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 13 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Interested in the localized severe potential in IL today. Robust dry slot moving in. Models firing a broken line of convection around 20z. Looks like a good setup for HSLC tornadoes but obviously that's contingent on enough instability developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Looks like MSP got hit pretty good, with blizzard conditions and up to 15” in far S MN. 18z GFS shows that micro deformation band in far SE WI overnight tonight, with like 6” in 6 hours. Strange for a global model to pick up on such a mesoscale feature like that...I wonder if MKE may be in store for a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 hour ago, beavis1729 said: Looks like MSP got hit pretty good, with blizzard conditions and up to 15” in far S MN. 18z GFS shows that micro deformation band in far SE WI overnight tonight, with like 6” in 6 hours. Strange for a global model to pick up on such a mesoscale feature like that...I wonder if MKE may be in store for a surprise. Looks like most guidance is on-board with a general 1-3" across far NE. Illinois/SE. Wisconsin tonight/tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 hour ago, beavis1729 said: Looks like MSP got hit pretty good, with blizzard conditions and up to 15” in far S MN. 18z GFS shows that micro deformation band in far SE WI overnight tonight, with like 6” in 6 hours. Strange for a global model to pick up on such a mesoscale feature like that...I wonder if MKE may be in store for a surprise. MKE does have a WWA out for the potential, though it could overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 50 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Looks like most guidance is on-board with a general 1-3" across far NE. Illinois/SE. Wisconsin tonight/tomorrow morning. Think a good chunk of the QPF may fall as liquid in NE IL as the warm front has lifted north of the area. Temps in SE WI don't have as far to fall for snow. Rates look to be heavier up there too. Congrats to the MSP metro on getting a nice dump! Trends were looking a little worrying for awhile, glad it worked out in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 hour ago, beavis1729 said: Looks like MSP got hit pretty good, with blizzard conditions and up to 15” in far S MN. 18z GFS shows that micro deformation band in far SE WI overnight tonight, with like 6” in 6 hours. Strange for a global model to pick up on such a mesoscale feature like that...I wonder if MKE may be in store for a surprise. Definitely a few hours of blizzard or near blizzard conditions here. Airport measured 9.3" as of 6pm and it's been snowing moderately since so they are over 10" at this point. A few locations in the south metro are reporting 12-14" so far. Has been a very fun storm to track and an awesome day of watching the weather outside. Absolutely perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 23, 2018 Author Share Posted January 23, 2018 Most exciting thing about this storm was the warm frontal passage this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Getting some nice lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Inch of rain round one. Lull most of the day. Thunder/lightning/pea hail round 2. Eyeballing a 2-3" of paste job so far to close. The best worst climo winter event in some yrs. Back to winter MIA mode until Feb If we can have another Jan. 20, 2018 50+ degree sunny day on Friday I'm OK with that. We take what we can get this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Quite the winter storm; heavy showers and storms on the warm front followed by a dry slot where the sun came out and spring arrived. Then a thunderstorm with small hail as the cold front passed. Woke up this morning to snow falling with perhaps an inch out there. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Might challenge the 5" mark here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Yeah - not making 5" Never trust the radar and the other half's eyeball measurement while laying in bed and posting lol. Doesn't look like we added a whole lot more since my eyeball total at 4am. West was the best. Some impressive totals in areas of racine and kenoaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Officially ended with 12.4" at MSP. Waking up to the sound of snowblowers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Sounds like a fun event.. Locally a few showers, a few delightful days of warmth and perhaps a coating as the cold front sweeps by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 The spotter report map shows an area of 8-9 inch totals around Burlington, WI.... pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Picked up just enough snow to whiten the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Over an inch of rain yesterday (rolling eyes, as this area always seems to get pounded during warm events) Snowed heavily for a while this morning and put down about 1.5 inches. Some of my snowpack from December is still somehow hanging in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Some totals in SE WI and NE IL from this event. We ended up with about 2”. Watching the evolution on radar is pretty sweet. Per Tom Skilling: Paddock Lake, WI 9.0" Burlington, WI 8.5" Waterford, WI . 8.0" Pell Lake, WI 7.7" Sturtevant, WI 6.0" Elkhorn, WI 5.6" Twin Lakes, WI. 5.5" Whitewater, WI 5.0" Lake Villa, IL 4.5" Spring Grove, IL 4.0" Kenosha, WI 4.0" Grayslake, IL. 3.0" Antioch, IL 3.0" Lakemoor, IL. 3.0" Harvard, IL 3.0" Woodstock, IL 2.0" Beach Park, IL . 2.0" Waukegan, IL 1.8" Marengo, IL . 2.0" Algonquin, IL 1.5" Northbrook, IL . 1.0" Skokie, IL 1.0" Naperville, IL 1.0" Evanston, IL . 0.5" Midway Airport-Chicago . 0.4" O'Hare 0.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 well, the mets got it right around here, but the school board in St Paul (my current residence) screwed up big time. some kids didn't get home until 11pm from elementary school. totally sad. https://blogs.mprnews.org/newscut/2018/01/meteorologists-blamed-for-st-paul-school-bus-snafu/ I can verify that not only the NWS got the right message out, but all the local TV stations did too. either they were directly saying 6-10 or 8-12, but the heaviest snowfall would be in the afternoon and the evening rush, and it would be heaviest in the east and southeast metro; or they were like 6-8, but the big band was close enough that any jog to the north that 12" was realistic for the east metro, also saying the worst would be the afternoon and the evening rush hour. I hate to say it, but with precinct caucuses in ~2 weeks for the DFL and GOP in Minnesota, and the school board members usually all there with the people actually seeking nominations (both US senate seats, governor's seat, US and state reps, and other state row offices) I wonder how many people will show up to complain to the school board members. I know as a DFL member (and convener/precinct chair for the precinct), I will definitely have to ask them politely but firmly who they were listening to about that forecast. after all, this is a storm whose call was right, not one to blame my fellow meteorological colleagues on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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