Younar Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 12 minutes ago, Chinook said: The 12z Euro has less snow for Minneapolis- it has 0.25 to 0.30" of QPF, as opposed to 1.0" to 1.2" of QPF farther south in Minnesota. It'll be interesting to see if this south shift will be mainly right or wrong. And for MSP the 12z GFS has ~1.3" QPF, 12z NAM has ~1.7" QPF and Canadian has ~1.0" QPF. Really hope the Euro is on an island and wrong about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, Younar said: And for MSP the 12z GFS has ~1.3" QPF, 12z NAM has ~1.7" QPF and Canadian has ~1.0" QPF. Really hope the Euro is on an island and wrong about it. On the plus side - the trend south in the GFS stopped with the 12z run. Now we just wait and see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 18z NAM and GFS still don't believe the Euro...if they are both to be believed MPX had better expand its watch area....they are being MIGHTY conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 6 hours ago, Toronto4 said: The 12z NAM shows around 0.30” of freezing rain for the Greater Toronto Area on Monday. Temps stay below freezing the whole day. EURO has the same CAD signature. Would guess it has mixed precip to begin too. I guess that's something interesting for us to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 2 hours ago, Roon said: 18z NAM and GFS still don't believe the Euro...if they are both to be believed MPX had better expand its watch area....they are being MIGHTY conservative. Maybe they are waiting for more confidence to expand the Winter Storm Watch. There's still time-- the snow will start hitting on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Looks like I may get a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Nice to see MSP guys getting in on some action, been a slow year up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 I know the NAM-WRF has its biases, so take it for what it's worth. But damn, if the 00Z run is to be believed the Twin Cities, Central/SE Minnesota, and the southern 1/2 of Wisconsin gets rocked on the trowal the whole time, basically a complete upper-left quad, almost like a worst-case scenario. Some of the kuchera totals over 2 feet in the metro (pivotalweather graphical). thank god it's only one model and a lot more will come out as time goes on the next few days. but that just blows my mind. hope the others aren't anywhere near as big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: Nice to see MSP guys getting in on some action, been a slow year up that way. Been a slow couple years but this year in particular. I'm not buying in until the Euro comes around though. Always makes me nervous when it isn't on my team. GFS has been pretty steady though so that is encouraging. Good support from GEFS, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 everyone has to remember here though in the Twin Cities: the Super Bowl is only ~2 weeks away (which Minneapolis has to prepare to host), Crashed Ice in St Paul is this weekend, the Winter Carnival in St Paul starts later on next week. The last thing we need around here is a major 1foot+ snow storm to have to clean up while trying to prep for Super Bowl 52. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Jim Marusak said: everyone has to remember here though in the Twin Cities: the Super Bowl is only ~2 weeks away (which Minneapolis has to prepare to host), Crashed Ice in St Paul is this weekend, the Winter Carnival in St Paul starts later on next week. The last thing we need around here is a major 1foot+ snow storm to have to clean up while trying to prep for Super Bowl 52. Bring it. We'll figure it out. It's been too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 GFS Operational in, not as bad for the metro, but still definitely significant at 8-11". still the Canadian, euro, ukmet, and the ensembles to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 23 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said: GFS Operational in, not as bad for the metro, but still definitely significant at 8-11". still the Canadian, euro, ukmet, and the ensembles to go. Canadian is a crush job. 14-20” with ratios (pivotal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 20 minutes ago, Younar said: Canadian is a crush job. 14-20” with ratios (pivotal). looks like with the Canadian it brings a near-perfect dynamic set with the trowal nearby to bring in the burst of really heavy snowfall between 12 and 18 UTC on Monday. Without that big dynamic boost, snowfall amounts in the heaviest area are closer to 8-12 than 14-20. this system is definitely going to have as its issue whether it'll be just trowal/occlusion dynamics or adding a boost to them with surface and near-surface synoptics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 as for the Euro, its operational run is still much further south than the rest of the models. it even looks like it's further south with the QPF than the previous two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2018 Author Share Posted January 20, 2018 Almost all of the models are now showing the world's smallest deformation zone popping up over southern WI Monday night as the main vort kicks northeast. Amounts vary from 4-8" depending on which model you look at. It's been showing up since yesterday, so it looks like this may happen. Where it exactly sets up is going to be key, as you'll need to be directly under it to pick up more than a DAB. Could be a nice hit for our southern WI crew. EDIT: Just saw that the 12z 12k NAM shows 11" lolly over Janesville WI. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 24 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Almost all of the models are now showing the world's smallest deformation zone popping up over southern WI Monday night as the main vort kicks northeast. Amounts vary from 4-8" depending on which model you look at. It's been showing up since yesterday, so it looks like this may happen. Where it exactly sets up is going to be key, as you'll need to be directly under it to pick up more than a DAB. Could be a nice hit for our southern WI crew. EDIT: Just saw that the 12z 12k NAM shows 11" lolly over Janesville WI. Wow. Odd. Doesn't really fit the profile of these type of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 We may be in for a cool inch on Monday in the aft of the storm. Hahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2018 Author Share Posted January 20, 2018 New Euro also shows 3-5" snows from Monroe to MKE, with 6" lolly over Janesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 We were never in play for good snow, but the subtle north/south track changes are a big deal for our temperature. A few runs ago, on its farthest south run, the euro had us down to upper 30s Sunday/Monday. Now, with a track back north a couple counties, we're back to the low 50s around midday Monday. I'm really looking forward to some nice rain. Models suggest 0.75" around here. We haven't had a half-inch precip event since mid October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 And on the other side of the coin the latest SPC outlook talks about possible upgrade to slight risk as far north as MO for Sunday night. there is reason to believe an organized squall line will advance across eastern OK/northeast TX into AR/MO region after dark. Strong frontal forcing favors linear storm mode and damaging winds are the primary threat, especially as 500mb flow intensifies to near 100kt during the latter half of the period. Even so, a tornado or two can not be ruled out as forecast shear would support organized rotating updrafts. Have opted to maintain 5% severe probs given the relatively benign thermodynamic profiles, but a SLGT risk may be warranted if expected buoyancy improv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 New Euro also shows 3-5" snows from Monroe to MKE, with 6" lolly over Janesville. 18z NAM has that snow over northern IL but lighter than previous runs. This is the sort of thing that as you mentioned it's showed up on multiple model runs, so it's probably gonna happen somewhere. With it being on the mesoscale driven by low level f-gen, expect changes in placement because the models are decent this far out in showing a signal like that but wouldn't expect location to be locked in. A possibly somewhat similar scenario earlier this winter was back in mid December when a band of snow gradually sinking south produced 1-5" across parts of northern IL. The NAM had been hinting at a decent snow band for several runs, but then the 00z run the night before had it across central and southern WI. MKX ended up issuing a WWA and of course the snow occurred mainly in the DVN and LOT CWAs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 The Twin Cities curse may prevail yet again. The 12z euro gave me hope but the 18z NAM and GFS continue a consistent march south. 3km NAM even blanks the entire metro. Unbelievable how hard it s to get a decent snowstorm here since winter of ‘13-‘14 despite good model output leading up to the final 24-48 hours before show time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 6 hours ago, cyclone77 said: New Euro also shows 3-5" snows from Monroe to MKE, with 6" lolly over Janesville. Does it get north of Madison? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 21, 2018 Author Share Posted January 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Geoboy645 said: Does it get north of Madison? No it showed a sharp cutoff with Madison only getting around an inch. The Geos magnet has pulled the heavier snows down into far northern IL on the new 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Looks like a backside DAB around here Monday night-Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: No it showed a sharp cutoff with Madison only getting around an inch. The Geos magnet has pulled the heavier snows down into far northern IL on the new 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 58 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Looks like a backside DAB around here Monday night-Tuesday. And that's bullish. It is what is. Hopefully,the twin cities folks make out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 21, 2018 Author Share Posted January 21, 2018 Euro maintains the micro deformation band for southern WI. Max snowfall has shifted a county east to a little northwest of Elkhorn where it has 7". Nice hit for MKE again as well. For this area looks like we'll have a several hour period of rain with maybe an embedded thunderstorm after midnight tomorrow night. Looks like our heaviest event since mid Oct. Hoping for at least a half inch of rain. We'll then be under the dry slot all day Monday, and Monday eve, with some show showers after midnight Monday night for perhaps a tenth or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 21, 2018 Author Share Posted January 21, 2018 The future radar simulations on the CAMS are pure model porn. Gonna be one perty lookin system to watch wrap up on radar later tonight. Would love to be sitting around Norfolk Nebraska right now. Must be nice!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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