IWXwx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3-6" snowpack + ground frozen hard as a rock + 1" of heavy rain (thunder?) = flooding and ice jams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 37 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Anecdotally it seems like these warm cutters lock in easier than good snowstorms around here. Somebody should look into that. Nah, they're fine. Models just like teasing us and playing games with us couple days out, but they know full well of the final outcome. With regards to cutters, they don't like playing games so they just go straight to the end game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The 25th-28th storm looking interesting to say the least. Pacific pattern seems ideal for something to certainly form, but that's way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 52 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Anecdotally it seems like these warm cutters lock in easier than good snowstorms around here. Somebody should look into that. I feel the same way but I think it comes down to subjective perspective. The low has been wobbling with the models by a few hundred miles (sometimes going through GRB/sometimes through lower MI). But if you're as far S/E as we are, that wobble makes no practical difference...it's going to rain. So it seems like the models have locked because we don't really care whether Marquette vs Duluth gets a foot of snow or not. That's my theory. Feel free to punch holes in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: I feel the same way but I think it comes down to subjective perspective. The low has been wobbling with the models by a few hundred miles (sometimes going through GRB/sometimes through lower MI). But if you're as far S/E as we are, that wobble makes no practical difference...it's going to rain. So it seems like the models have locked because we don't really care whether Marquette vs Duluth gets a foot of snow or not. That's my theory. Feel free to punch holes in it. No, that seems legit. You're probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: I feel the same way but I think it comes down to subjective perspective. The low has been wobbling with the models by a few hundred miles (sometimes going through GRB/sometimes through lower MI). But if you're as far S/E as we are, that wobble makes no practical difference...it's going to rain. So it seems like the models have locked because we don't really care whether Marquette vs Duluth gets a foot of snow or not. That's my theory. Feel free to punch holes in it. I think he means we see greater inconsistencies with the models when it comes to a good snowstorm for us, but lesser variability when it comes to cutters. If you check the 0z GFS run from Sunday, which at that point in time this event was 180+ hours out, the track has relatively stayed the same with some small wobbles here and there as you mentioned. Whereas, the last storm, we saw continued inconsistency right through the end. But as you said, it's a subjective perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Way back at the start of winter I remember Tom Skilling saying that this winter might produce episodes of major temp swings and a variety of precip. Looks like we are certainly going to validate that. IND already talking about heavy rain and flooding potential with the upcoming system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Looks like a Gaylord or UP special. Next to zero chance for Chicago, Detroit or Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 I know this thread is dead because 90% of the board is staring down the barrel of cold rain. It is refreshing to finally have a strong cutter to track, and that it is looking potentially very good here only adds to that. I am beginning to worry about my Monday morning 6:50AM flight from LGA to MSP however.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Yea, looks like a cold washout for most including my area, will definitely finish off my remaining snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 58 minutes ago, ORDIOWPITMSP said: I know this thread is dead because 90% of the board is staring down the barrel of cold rain. It is refreshing to finally have a strong cutter to track, and that it is looking potentially very good here only adds to that. I am beginning to worry about my Monday morning 6:50AM flight from LGA to MSP however.... Euro looked like a nice hit for you guys. Looks like a classic Sioux City special. Hoping to hear a rumble or two of thunder Sunday night. The Euro showed some low-topped convection potential Monday afternoon over IL. Maybe some small hailers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 20 hours ago, Jonger said: Looks like a Gaylord or UP special. Next to zero chance for Chicago, Detroit or Cleveland. ..and the beat goes on, and on, and on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Models have only trended worse on this one as far as I am concerned, but they never really trended 'good'. At least during the weekend the NW half of IA was being buried in heavy snow. NWS stands by a chance that it may at least snow for a portion of the event in South Central IA, I think no at this point. Just no. It's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 I personally cannot recall a MN special that trended back towards here but have seen many trend that way and end up there? Yes we have had systems trend back se/east as we saw last week but none from MN that i can recall? Been a while if it has? If someone can recall one please share it! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2018 Author Share Posted January 18, 2018 Welp, I tried. I'll wait another 3-4yrs before I start another winter storm thread lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2018 Author Share Posted January 18, 2018 New Euro did come southeast a decent amount, with heavy snows now to just west of I-35 in Iowa. Would be a nice event for La Crosse as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 6 hours ago, Harry said: I personally cannot recall a MN special that trended back towards here but have seen many trend that way and end up there? Yes we have had systems trend back se/east as we saw last week but none from MN that i can recall? Been a while if it has? If someone can recall one please share it! Thanks! March 1998 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 5 hours ago, Baum said: March 1998 You only had to go back 20 years. Not bad. Though even that one started out warm for us with an initial band of snow running from KS to WI before the second band took shape. As far as Harry's question, I assume he means the last time we had unanimous model agreement of a storm hitting MN and not just a model/run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2018 Author Share Posted January 18, 2018 GFS showing 45kts at the (relatively low) top of the mixed layer Monday afternoon/eve from Iowa into northern IL. Could be some 50mph gust potential with some snow showers. Would be quite the change from the 50 degree warmth from earlier that morning. EDIT: A couple soundings show 50kts at TOML just west of Chitown at 00z Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: GFS showing 45kts at the (relatively low) top of the mixed layer Monday afternoon/eve from Iowa into northern IL. Could be some 50mph gust potential with some snow showers. Would be quite the change from the 50 degree warmth from earlier that morning. EDIT: A couple soundings show 50kts at TOML just west of Chitown at 00z Tue. Bliz conditions? Wouldn't surprise me if there's any wrap around. Which I'm expecting there to be at least some of given it's a frequent signal on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 17 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: GFS showing 45kts at the (relatively low) top of the mixed layer Monday afternoon/eve from Iowa into northern IL. Could be some 50mph gust potential with some snow showers. Would be quite the change from the 50 degree warmth from earlier that morning. EDIT: A couple soundings show 50kts at TOML just west of Chitown at 00z Tue. The wind setup does look decent. The surface low deepening is more gradual vs a bombing scenario, but it's happening all throughout and not at the last minute as the low is pulling away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2018 Author Share Posted January 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Bliz conditions? Wouldn't surprise me if there's any wrap around. Which I'm expecting there to be at least some of given it's a frequent signal on guidance. Seems like the models always tend to overdo the wraparound snows beyond 48-72hrs, so wouldn't be surprised to see a decrease in coming runs. Hopefully we can at least get some good snow shower action, which would look pretty dramatic with the strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2018 Author Share Posted January 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The wind setup does look decent. The surface low deepening is more gradual vs a bombing scenario, but it's happening all throughout and not at the last minute as the low is pulling away. Yeah I like how the storm deepens fairly far to the west, so there's time for the wind fields to catch up before it moves through/out of our region. If this storm can deepen a little more, and wind fields strengthen just a little more we wouldn't be too far off from high wind warning criteria. Probably looking a little too closely at this given it's still quite a ways out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Call me when the Euro has the low over Ft Wayne.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2018 Author Share Posted January 18, 2018 Euro night and day difference compared to the GFS. Original surface low quickly occludes over southeast NE Sunday night, and then a secondary surface low organizes and deepens from northwest IL into northern-lower MI. The axis of heaviest snowfall remains quite far to the north however, and MSP would still cash in. MSP crowd has to be feeling good seeing two widely different scenarios both dump 6"+ in their backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Euro night and day difference compared to the GFS. Original surface low quickly occludes over southeast NE Sunday night, and then a secondary surface low organizes and deepens from northwest IL into northern-lower MI. The axis of heaviest snowfall remains quite far to the north however, and MSP would still cash in. MSP crowd has to be feeling good seeing two widely different scenarios both dump 6"+ in their backyards. Only 6 inches would be a disappointment. 10+ or bust. :). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2018 Author Share Posted January 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Roon said: Only 6 inches would be a disappointment. 10+ or bust. :). lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Euro night and day difference compared to the GFS. Original surface low quickly occludes over southeast NE Sunday night, and then a secondary surface low organizes and deepens from northwest IL into northern-lower MI. The axis of heaviest snowfall remains quite far to the north however, and MSP would still cash in. MSP crowd has to be feeling good seeing two widely different scenarios both dump 6"+ in their backyards. Bit of a different evolution on that run compared to last. Definitely more bullish on occlusion/redevelopment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 This doesn't even look like as big of a rainmaker as it once did, especially out west into cyclone's area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2018 Author Share Posted January 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Bit of a different evolution on that run compared to last. Definitely more bullish on occlusion/redevelopment. Wish we could get this thing to occlude about 12hrs earlier, and have the new surface low pop in eastern MO lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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