cyclone77 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Well, still a bit far out in the mid-range, but the Euro and GFS have been very consistent in developing a fairly potent storm system for the past several days. This one has the potential to tap into some deep sub-tropical moisture and unload quite a bit of snow wherever that lines up. For those who miss out on the wintry precip a respectable rain event could serve as sort of a consolation prize given the 2-3 month stretch of relatively dry weather. I haven't started a winter storm thread in like 3 or 4 years, so if this one doesn't work out I'll bow out and hide in the shadows for another few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenBo Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Looks good for a heavy rain event here. Should wash the salt off the roads and give us a clean slate for February. Thaws.....they happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Trend this winter is for the models to be too slow/amplified with the northern stream in the D5-7 range. Right now models are indicating a partial phase of streams which causes this storm to deepen well to the NW. If the northern wave outruns the southern one we could see a further south solution play-out. A number of the 6z GEFS point to this solution (although a number also support the OP run). Not saying this will happen this time. Just a trend I've noticed in 17-18. I wouldn't write anything off yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 If the predicted rain amounts are realized, there could be some flooding due to the ground still being frozen from the cold spell a couple weeks ago. Mid winter rains have caused flooding several times at my point in the past 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 hours ago, GreenBo said: Looks good for a heavy rain event here. Should wash the salt off the roads and give us a clean slate for February. Thaws.....they happen. We just did that 4 days ago............we don't really need to push the re-set button again so soon, but Nina's are known for it, aren't they. IF it follows this season's MO and trends south, it'll end up another weak sauce WWA event. Looks to be a lose-lose situation. This split flow with "I think I can, I think I can" phasing is pathetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Well FWIW the GFS continues the early south trend Has a 30” bullseye in S WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12z GFS definitely trending south. Drops 27" of snow on MSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Well FWIW the GFS continues the early south trend Yeah a tick further south than the 06z. Smashes Iowa into southern WI with heavy wet snows. Nice baroclinic zone with mid 50s in central IL and mid 20s up in northwest IL at 156hr. Nice 50kt CC over Iowa as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Cyclone I swear this thread better not jinx it for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenBo Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 34 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: We just did that 4 days ago............we don't really need to push the re-set button again so soon, but Nina's are known for it, aren't they. IF it follows this season's MO and trends south, it'll end up another weak sauce WWA event. Looks to be a lose-lose situation. This split flow with "I think I can, I think I can" phasing is pathetic No doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: Trend this winter is for the models to be too slow/amplified with the northern stream in the D5-7 range. Right now models are indicating a partial phase of streams which causes this storm to deepen well to the NW. If the northern wave outruns the southern one we could see a further south solution play-out. A number of the 6z GEFS point to this solution (although a number also support the OP run). Not saying this will happen this time. Just a trend I've noticed in 17-18. I wouldn't write anything off yet. Yup, really hoping that the same trend that burned us last week’s storm will end up helping us over this way. Unfortunately, the trend is also to dry out the storm with that southern trend, but I’d be happy with anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 hour ago, madwx said: 12z GFS definitely trending south. Drops 27" of snow on MSN. Oh please happen. I know it wont but wow that would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12z Canadian also shifted south a bit; although not as much as the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 This will shift south and then back north and so on for the next few days. It all comes down to what those area's of high pressure do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Teleconnections would favor a southern solution but there’s also lack of strong blocking to the north. Not really sure about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Tidbit from LOT afternoon afd: ” Again, much could and likely will change over the next several days, but very early signs suggest the potential for convection ahead of this low and significant winter weather on its north side. It is too early to say what this means for the local area, as all depends on the ultimate track and strength of the low, and whether it even develops as models presently advertise. For example, a quick look at the GFS ensemble shows a much weaker and more transient upper wave, as might be expected, rather than a slower and deeper closed circulation as depicted in deterministic solutions. Either way, there appears to be a good chance for active weather late in the weekend, with the potential for both liquid and frozen precipitation. Lenning Wouldnt surprise me if it ends up being south/weaker just based on how things have gone this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 And the 18z GFS starts to come back North with the heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Intetesting take cyclone. Under no circumstances do I consider rain a consolation prize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Thread should be re-named January 20-22nd winter mudf%&k for these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 9 hours ago, GreenBo said: No doubt yep this winter sucks so far, never seen so many promising looking systems farther out even less than 5 days out fizzle or weaken into fast moving waves of 2-3 inch snows. Really been a let down. Just one storm that is major to break Indy out of the near 3 year winter storm warning drought will do please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: yep this winter sucks so far, never seen so many promising looking systems farther out even less than 5 days out fizzle or weaken into fast moving waves of 2-3 inch snows. Really been a let down. Just one storm that is major to break Indy out of the near 3 year winter storm warning drought will do please February big dog for central Indiana, leave the magnet and LOT crowd drooling. I feel it. Time to get the averages adjusted proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Jackstraw said: February big dog for central Indiana, leave the magnet and LOT crowd drooling. I feel it. Time to get the averages adjusted proper I hope so lol. Really miss seeing a good to big storm winter storm warning level at least pop up each year. What really gets me is all these winter haters or pansies around here thinking these weak 1-3 inch snows are big storms now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Intetesting take cyclone. Under no circumstances do I consider rain a consolation prize The rain would be more useful late in winter/spring. Now it just can't soak in efficiently anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 20 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The rain would be more useful late in winter/spring. Now it just can't soak in efficiently anyway. Agreed. Around here we just don't have an efficient drainage system other than soaking in. Frozen ground usually ends up in temporary lakes until the spring thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 At this point in time, I'd favour and lean towards a rainmaker for many of us. Quite the influx of warm pacific air coming in, along with the building SE ridge, which would likely result in a cutter. Unless the s/w slows down to allow the HP near Hudson Bay to sink down, I'd doubt any substantial south shifts with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: The rain would be more useful late in winter/spring. Now it just can't soak in efficiently anyway. True, but just want to see a system actually deliver something more than the T-0.3" we've seen the past 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Minneapolis special.....hoping for a backwash inch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 this ones been on my birthday weekend radar for a long time now and its been quite clear ill get my birthday wish for a good weekend torch to apply rain x to the vehicles. evil winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Anecdotally it seems like these warm cutters lock in easier than good snowstorms around here. Somebody should look into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Looks like a good "soaker"? for many around here. Still plenty of time to come back south, which I think is still in reach for the northwestern portions of the sub, given we are 5-6 days out yet. Tbh I'm with cyclone, a good Rainer would be nice, been a long time since our last 0.5 QPF system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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