MD Snow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Looks like the Nam goes crazy with the northern part of the system and puts us on the southern fringe of the better qpf. We're close. The northern tier would probably make out pretty good with what the 12k just spit out. Interested to see what the NAMs starts showing inside 48hrs. The 3k is a general 1-2 inches for DC/Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: We're close. The northern tier would probably make out pretty good with what the 12k just spit out. Interested to see what the NAMs starts showing inside 48hrs. The 3k is a general 1-2 inches for DC/Baltimore. at hour 60... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The 3k nam at h5 looks closer to the euro. The nam 12k actually trended towards option 2 from my list. It enhances precip along the front as a wave develops to our east with the weak vort that is out ahead of the trough. It then does nothing behind it. The euro is keying on the system behind it and cutting off the h5 at the base of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The key here is how the front progresses. The euro holds it up so much that the energy digging the trough catches up and has a boundary there to spark development. The other guidance is pushing the boundary way east by the time to upper lever energy approaches and there is no chance. A lot of that has to do with the more negative trough on the euro vs others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The 3k nam at h5 looks closer to the euro. The nam 12k actually trended towards option 2 from my list. It enhances precip along the front as a wave develops to our east with the weak vort that is out ahead of the trough. It then does nothing behind it. The euro is keying on the system behind it and cutting off the h5 at the base of the trough. No other model drops the snow totals in PA like the 0z Nam. Comparing it to the 3k tells me the 12k is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Th 3k looks more like the gfs in all honesty. It is horrifying for those of us to the west. But expected in this ****hole seaso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Th e3k looks more like the gfs in all honesty. It is horrifying for those of us to the west. But expected in this ****hole season I was only looking at h5. Its bad at the surface and even though it looks diggier at h5 like the euro it would help us because it has the front well east of us by the time the trough gets here. The euro runs that have good able still have the front over us as the energy rounding the trough catches up and sparks development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The key here is how the front progresses. The euro holds it up so much that the energy digging the trough catches up and has a boundary there to spark development. The other guidance is pushing the boundary way east by the time to upper lever energy approaches and there is no chance. A lot of that has to do with the more negative trough on the euro vs others. As someone else said earlier...so much for the simple setup, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Bob. Look off the NC coast at that area of precip and toggle back to previous run. Look at the pressure lines. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=eus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018011500&fh=28 It's an ivt off the coast that spawns a wave. If the approaching trough went neutral and closed off it would probably suck it in like a vacuum and spawn low pressure close to the coast if I had to guess. I liked the nam 3k trend at h5. Not nearly as good as the euro obviously but the 3k looked better. If we're going to pull off a euro solution we need to see support trending with 0z. If the gfs takes a step back it won't give us much confidence. Right now it's the euro/jma against the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 there was a system back in the late 90s maybe...i wish i remember when...but it had a slow moving front that almost stalled and snowed along the western areas towards the blue ridge before that whole line collapsed east as the coastal took over. caused a lot of disruption to the afternoon commute. not really sure if this is how it will play out, but it feels somewhat similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: As someone else said earlier...so much for the simple setup, lol The potential for 1-3 with the front is very simple and has never changed. If you're talking about getting a closed upper level low and coastal scenario for a larger event then those are never simple. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 ICON looks like it's slowing things down a bit. Best look it's given yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Rgem is pretty juicy to the west as the run cuts off. I can extrapolate a decent event from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The potential for 1-3 with the front is very simple and has never changed. If you're talking about getting a closed upper level low and coastal scenario for a larger event then those are never simple. Ever. Ah, I gotcha (it's been a little hard to decipher that admist all the discussion about this part of the system, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, MD Snow said: ICON looks like it's slowing things down a bit. Best look it's given yet. It also has a small closed h5 low entering WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1-3 is a stretch. GFS still doesn’t like it much. T-1 perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Rgem is pretty juicy to the west as the run cuts off. I can extrapolate a decent event from here Here are precip accumulations for the RGEM out to 72 hours. For entertainment only, as I think the RGEM only officially goes out to 48 or 54 hours, so this probably deserves at least as many caveats as the NAM at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Cmc joins the closed h5 party. Close to a big hit and very close to the euro. Might be game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Looking at the CMC at h5 at 54 hrs, I'd say there has been a better look across almost all guidance at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, yoda said: It also has a small closed h5 low entering WV Icon snowfall is still less than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Icon snowfall is still less than an inch. I know but we're still trying to trend this baby. It had nothing for the entire mid-atlantic at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Looks like areas east of the bay do well from a coastal on the CMC. Should be pretty good for most people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Gfs is moving out on an island now and I don't know why you guys give a crap about the Icon. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs is moving out on an island now and I don't know why you guys give a crap about the Icon. Lol Because it had the closed low.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Ah, gotchya. I missed that part. I just saw mitch complaining about no snow. Lol Closed low on euro, eps, jma, cmc, and icon. Getting interesting folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs is moving out on an island now and I don't know why you guys give a crap about the Icon. Lol WPC might have to rethink their model blend/preference a bit after seeing the CMC making a big move toward the Euro idea lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 GGEM looks awesome.....God i hope the GFS is wrong for once. its due a bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Interesting take from WPC via their Model Diagnostic Discussion- THE 12Z NAM/12Z ECMWF WERE DEEP/SLOW/SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE, WHILE THE 12Z GFS WAS THE QUICKEST -- BOTH THE NAM/GFS MODELS ARE DISPLAYING THEIR TYPICAL BIASES. NORMALLY DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE ONE WOULD FAVOR A SLOWER/DEEPER SOLUTION, BUT THE MID-LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ARE WILD CARDS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A LESS DUG IN AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THIS RULED THE 12Z NAM/12Z ECMWF OUT. THE 12Z CANADIAN AND 12Z UKMET LIE CLOSEST TO THE MIDDLE OF THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS ALOFT, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. CMC caves to the solution that has been ruled out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 CMC the new NAM. 980mb bomb offshore at 96hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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