Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 11 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Worst part of the euro going rogue is we only get to be happy twice a day. Not even that much , really, because by the time most wake up any good vibes from 0z euro have been murdered by the 6z suite. It really is something isn’t it? Whenever the Euro is the holdout for snow around here it always seems to cave. Funny how that works huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Looks like the first victim of 2018 is the EURO's reliability. RIP, OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I'll just slip this in right here 18z jma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 37 minutes ago, Ji said: lets pretend 18z didnt happen...00z is a fresh start Ji. We need a positive quote from you before the 0z runs starts. That should change our luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 JMA is actually a long duration event. Snow starts before 60 hours with a slow moving front which gives time for the slp to form. I wonder what 90 hours would look like....would the slp kick out to sea or clobber DCA/BWI? Anyway, here's the link to 60 hours and you can scroll through until it ends with the panel Midlo posted. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=jma&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=jma&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=084&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=060 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: Ji. We need a positive quote from you before the 0z runs starts. That should change our luck. I think the issue is we're limiting the storm's potential by naming the threat "light snow event". We need to change the name FAST. Just my 2 cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Interesting take from WPC via their Model Diagnostic Discussion- THIS RULED THE 12Z NAM/12Z ECMWF OUT. THE 12Z CANADIAN AND 12Z UKMET LIE CLOSEST TO THE MIDDLE OF THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS ALOFT, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. I thought the run was probably a bit of a blip in the face of all other guidance until I saw the EPS. I know the eps can be prone to "group think" just like the gefs but it's really hard to ignore that about 1/3 of the solutions were very large qpf makers and there's more than a small cluster on the western edge of the mean. I'm skeptical like everyone else but the euro/eps was pretty compelling to believe that there is more to it than a freak chance at a larger event. I thought the 18z gfs/gefs made a small but noticeable shift towards more dig/less progressive but it was still quite a ways from what the euro/eps are showing. This is how I see the odds right now: 75% chance of T-3" 15% chance at a widespread warning level event 10% chance at 1" or less for the majority of the sub. At this point it looks like a near zero chance at a total whiff. Some unlucky folks could get skipped over but the vast majority are going to see a period of snow with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: i thought this was suppose to be a simple non complex snow event It is man. It's either going to snow or it isn't. Easy breezy chicken cheesy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 19 minutes ago, mitchnick said: JMA is actually a long duration event. Snow starts before 60 hours with a slow moving front which gives time for the slp to form. I wonder what 90 hours would look like....would the slp kick out to sea or clobber DCA/BWI? Anyway, here's the link to 60 hours and you can scroll through until it ends with the panel Midlo posted. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=jma&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=jma&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=084&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=060 Man. The JMA does have me salivating a little bit. We can only hope at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 How many times over the years have WPC ruled out the Euro? Obviously, they are seeing the problems the Euro has been having just like those on this Board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I thought the run was probably a bit of a blip in the face of all other guidance until I saw the EPS. I know the eps can be prone to "group think" just like the gefs but it's really hard to ignore that about 1/3 of the solutions were very large qpf makers and there's more than a small cluster on the western edge of the mean. I'm skeptical like everyone else but the euro/eps was pretty compelling to believe that there is more to it than a freak chance at a larger event. I thought the 18z gfs/gefs made a small but noticeable shift towards more dig/less progressive but it was still quite a ways from what the euro/eps are showing. This is how I see the odds right now: 75% chance of T-3" 15% chance at a widespread warning level event 10% chance at 1" or less for the majority of the sub. At this point it looks like a near zero chance at a total whiff. Some unlucky folks could get skipped over but the vast majority are going to see a period of snow with this one. It' really hard to go against the Euro/eps 72 hours out. Just wish it had some support from one of the other major globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: It' really hard to go against the Euro/eps 72 hours out. Just wish it had some support from one of the other major globals. I guess the good news is that at this point out during the Jan 4th event the Euro was the only one getting snow into DC, and almost every GEFS member was East/OTS. Different setup I know, but there is some for the Euro to be valid. As long as this doesn't go like March 20 2016 where the Euro backed away from a moderate event within 48 hours of the storm, and the GFS ended up being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: It' really hard to go against the Euro/eps 72 hours out. Just wish it had some support from one of the other major globals. JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, MD Snow said: JMA Major, i.e. good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, Chris78 said: It' really hard to go against the Euro/eps 72 hours out. Just wish it had some support from one of the other major globals. The good stuff happens between 72-96 hours so still in that range where the euro/eps can overdo amplification so not in the prime window. The good thing is the run over run trend. It was a nice shift towards amplification. If it was the other way around we would all agree that the euro is shifting towards the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: Cool. Just realized that by looking at the subforum header. I never realized that in all honesty. I think the NY City subforum is a better fit for them but whatever. It wouldn't be a better fit. I live 2 miles from the Maryland border. My weather in the 6 years I've lived here, mimics DC weather almost perfectly and rarely anything from NYC or even Philly. Banter aside, DT loves the Euro and hates the GFS, he presented an entire lecture at a conference and kept saying "GFS trash, Euro amazing". Problem is, Euro hasn't been doing well, and DT is going down with the ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Mdecoy said: Banter aside, DT loves the Euro and hates the GFS, he presented an entire lecture at a conference and kept saying "GFS trash, Euro amazing". Problem is, Euro hasn't been doing well, and DT is going down with the ship. Funny thing is the past decade he has survived on that model. It was the undisputed king. This year it has struggled and the GFS has been solid since the update. It is an adjustment for all of us in all honesty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I just looked over the snowfall maps for the last six Euro runs. There was one that was mostly a miss for the area, one that was a good area-wide hit, and four that looked similar to today's 12z run, with a jackpot zone near central VA. The 18z GFS took a step towards the Euro at H5 and bumped up precip in central VA, and the 18z GGEM showed a central VA jackpot similar to the Euro. Right now I think this storm is looking pretty good for that region. It's not so clear for the rest of us. I suspect I'll see more than 1" of snow fall from the sky over the entire event, but it might be at very low rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12k bumping up precip tomorrow with the ivt feature. Would be funny if a half inch sneaks up along 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Looking for a Vikings miracle from these 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 12k bumping up precip tomorrow with the ivt feature. Would be funny if a half inch sneaks up along 95. At 22 hrs, this run looks closer to the 12z run as the vort is further west rral close to 12z position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 12k bumping up precip tomorrow with the ivt feature. Would be funny if a half inch sneaks up along 95. Bob. Look off the NC coast at that area of precip and toggle back to previous run. Look at the pressure lines. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=eus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018011500&fh=28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 WAR is really flexing this run.....notably stronger. Ridge bridge squeeze play is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Don't like this NAM run. The southern part of the ULL isn't flattening out fast enough and not enough energy ejecting northeast. Not going to get a hail mary from this run. Edit:NM it came back and gave us a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 NAM was close. I see this as a move toward a EURO solution. Areas northeast are all of a sudden looking at a SECS...which sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Any thoughts on the NWS using a Ukie/CMC blend? Both didn't look the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Any thoughts on the NWS using a Ukie/CMC blend? Both didn't look the best "preferred with average confidence" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 48 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Looking for a Vikings miracle from these 0z runs. Ask and ye shall receive......Literally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 0z 3k NAM with a more widespread area of light snow late tomorrow morning and early afternoon across the metro corridor. Dusting to half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Looks like the Nam goes crazy with the northern part of the system and puts us on the southern fringe of the better qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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