Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, T. August said: I’m glad the storm already happened I was just about to post the same thing. Lol. A lot of definitive calls going on around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Reaper may have to clean up our forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: I was just about to post the same thing. Lol. A lot of definitive calls going on around here. Please give us some good GFS PbP Chill. I have to go out shovel now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Please give us some good GFS PbP Chill. I have to go out shovel now. Gfs is stubborn. All we can prob do is hope it moves towards something better instead of away while disapponting us all either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Reaper may have to clean up our forum. He wont get a morsel. We are still going to get plenty of snow all over this subforum this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jebman said: He wont get a morsel. We are still going to get plenty of snow all over this subforum this winter. A lot of negative Nellies in this joint. It gets old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: A lot of negative Nellies in this joint. It gets old. GFS won't please people. Coastal robs the front of moisture. It's better than something but not by a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 GFS says no dice. GFS is the new dr no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, DCTeacherman said: GFS says no dice. GFS is the new dr no. Once the GFS locks onto an idea it generally doesn’t budge til you’re pretty close into the event. That’s been the tendency at least the last few years. Inside of 48 or forget it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: A lot of negative Nellies in this joint. It gets old. True weather geeks will say it how it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: A lot of negative Nellies in this joint. It gets old. Easy to say from places that have had actual snow this year. Just saying. And the GFS is a disaster for me as well. Where is @WxWatcher007 I may need my head chopped off by a sickle at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 GFS took a step towards the Euro with a sharper trough and slower passage of the front. That's a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Gfs was a boob less positive with the trough and dug a boob more than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Gfs was a boob less positive with the trough and dug a boob more than 12z. Two boobs are never a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 An inch is a win. Just saying. Anyone expecting anything more is setting themselves up for disappointment with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Easy to say from places that have had actual snow this year. Just saying. And the GFS is a disaster for me as well. Where is @WxWatcher007 I may need my head chopped off by a sickle at this point. Not sure why you went full tilt over the NAMs snowmap. This is the type of where the digital snow maps aren't likely going to verify for any one location. There will be winners and losers for sure, but nothing is set in stone yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Well good news the gfs took a baby step towards the euro. Bad news is if it tries that and doesn't go all the way that option ends badly for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Well good news the gfs took a baby step towards the euro. Bad news is if it tries that and doesn't go all the way that option ends badly for us. I'm going full on euro hugging unless the gfs shows something better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Well good news the gfs took a baby step towards the euro. Bad news is if it tries that and doesn't go all the way that option ends badly for us. To me, it's definitely worth the roll of the dice. The ending badly is getting nothing instead of an inch. I've had an inch like 4 times this year. I want a legit snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Euro teasing us again...and gfs says no. We need an upset and euro to beat gfs for onceSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 It' hard to go against the Euro inside of 72 hours. Problem is it's basically on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm going full on euro hugging unless the gfs shows something better. Might as well because the idea that the front would get enhanced by the first wave along it is losing support today. Gfs teased us last night with that. They are all trending towards more energy digging but the euro and jma are the only ones that pull it off. The others leave us with a weak frontal band or nothing. Our chances of more then 1-2" went up today but so did our chances of less than 1" imo. Each can decide how to take that as positive or negative. I want to buy the euro but my brain says it's trolling again. It's been amplifying every breeze in the flow lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 23 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: A lot of negative Nellies in this joint. It gets old. Though it is bad other years it seems more so this year. Makes it hard to want to read the threads now-a-days. 13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: An inch is a win. Just saying. Anyone expecting anything more is setting themselves up for disappointment with this one. I am always expecting more but I will settle for less. Just the way I roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 At least the western members of EPS caused hm to raise an eyebrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 FWIW the icon took a step back with the trough with its 18z and it’s reflected at the surface pretty significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, MD Snow said: FWIW the icon took a step back with the trough with its 18z and it’s reflected at the surface pretty significantly. Yeah 18z looks less than good. Skips over most of us like PSU said he feared. Hard to go against it with anything else. I get half inch. Good enough. Looking forward to February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 What I hate about these nickel and dime events has been seen with every one this year. There's no model consensus and minor variations in the models create all or nothing events. I mean when it's a difference between 4" and 8", you know you're gettimg something substantial. But with these d@mn things, you could get nothing or 2", which makes a world of difference. Otoh, the fact remains that we have yet to really over perform on these small events. It's probably best, as much as it pains me to say but with all fingers toes, and eyes still crossed, to assume that will be the case again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 31 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Not sure why you went full tilt over the NAMs snowmap. This is the type of where the digital snow maps aren't likely going to verify for any one location. There will be winners and losers for sure, but nothing is set in stone yet. Its not just the NAM. It's the GFS as well. And when did Delaware become part of our forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Interesting take from WPC via their Model Diagnostic Discussion- THE 12Z NAM/12Z ECMWF WERE DEEP/SLOW/SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE, WHILE THE 12Z GFS WAS THE QUICKEST -- BOTH THE NAM/GFS MODELS ARE DISPLAYING THEIR TYPICAL BIASES. NORMALLY DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE ONE WOULD FAVOR A SLOWER/DEEPER SOLUTION, BUT THE MID-LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ARE WILD CARDS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A LESS DUG IN AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THIS RULED THE 12Z NAM/12Z ECMWF OUT. THE 12Z CANADIAN AND 12Z UKMET LIE CLOSEST TO THE MIDDLE OF THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS ALOFT, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 So far this looks like traces of sleet from 7/10 overcast skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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