Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,601
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Jan 16/17 light snow event.


clskinsfan

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 871
  • Created
  • Last Reply
2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Easy to say from places that have had actual snow this year. Just saying.

And the GFS is a disaster for me as well. Where is @WxWatcher007 I may need my head chopped off by a sickle at this point.

Not sure why you went full tilt over the NAMs snowmap. This is the type of where the digital snow maps aren't likely going to verify for any one location. There will be winners and losers for sure, but nothing is set in stone yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Well good news the gfs took a baby step towards the euro. Bad news is if it tries that and doesn't go all the way that option ends badly for us. 

To me, it's definitely worth the roll of the dice. The ending badly is getting nothing instead of an inch. I've had an inch like 4 times this year. I want a legit snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm going full on euro hugging unless the gfs shows something better. 

Might as well because the idea that the front would get enhanced by the first wave along it is losing support today.  Gfs teased us last night with that. They are all trending towards more energy digging but the euro and jma are the only ones that pull it off. The others leave us with a weak frontal band or nothing. Our chances of more then 1-2" went up today but so did our chances of less than 1" imo. Each can decide how to take that as positive or negative. I want to buy the euro but my brain says it's trolling again. It's been amplifying every breeze in the flow lately. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

A lot of negative Nellies in this joint. It gets old.

Though it is bad other years it seems more so this year. Makes it hard to want to read the threads now-a-days.

13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

An inch is a win. Just saying. Anyone expecting anything more is setting themselves up for disappointment with this one.

I am always expecting more but I will settle for less. Just the way I roll. :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

FWIW the icon took a step back with the trough with its 18z and it’s reflected at the surface pretty significantly. 

Yeah 18z looks less than good.  Skips over most of us like PSU said he feared.  Hard to go against it with anything else.  I get half inch. Good enough.  Looking forward to February. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What I hate about these nickel and dime events has been seen with every one this year. There's no model consensus and minor variations in the models create all or nothing events. I mean when  it's a difference between 4" and 8", you know you're gettimg something substantial.  But with these d@mn things, you could get nothing or 2", which makes a world of difference. Otoh, the fact remains that we have yet to really over perform on these small events. It's probably best, as much as it pains me to say but with all fingers toes, and eyes still crossed,  to assume that will be the case again.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Not sure why you went full tilt over the NAMs snowmap. This is the type of where the digital snow maps aren't likely going to verify for any one location. There will be winners and losers for sure, but nothing is set in stone yet.

Its not just the NAM. It's the GFS as well. And when did Delaware become part of our forum?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting take from WPC via their Model Diagnostic Discussion-

THE 12Z NAM/12Z ECMWF WERE DEEP/SLOW/SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE, WHILE THE 12Z GFS WAS THE QUICKEST -- BOTH THE NAM/GFS MODELS ARE DISPLAYING THEIR TYPICAL BIASES. NORMALLY DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE ONE WOULD FAVOR A SLOWER/DEEPER SOLUTION, BUT THE MID-LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ARE WILD CARDS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A LESS DUG IN AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THIS RULED THE 12Z NAM/12Z ECMWF OUT. THE 12Z CANADIAN AND 12Z UKMET LIE CLOSEST TO THE MIDDLE OF THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS ALOFT, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...