mitchnick Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 If there's a model that agrees with the euro ensembles, it'll be the Nam first. It was close at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Yeah I really need a Naming here at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, osfan24 said: Yeah I really need a Naming here at 18z. The entire subforum does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 It’s been called a Clipper, or a redeveloper...to me seems almost more like a Manitoba Mauler, if I’m not mistaken, those usually have the best chance to work out for us....but I could be totally wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, wawarriors4 said: It’s been called a Clipper, or a redeveloper...to me seems almost more like a Manitoba Mauler, if I’m not mistaken, those usually have the best chance to work out for us....but I could be totally wrong Its not really a mauler as it is picking up moisture from the south because of the orientation of the trough. The NAM has backed off on the early Tuesday start this run. But it looks juicy to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 For anyone who's interested, here's a quick summary of what I saw when digging through the 12z Euro run to figure out where the moisture is coming from. I'll leave out most of the pictures, but if you want to follow along then you can get the relevant plots at https://weather.us/model-charts/euro. Unfortunately that site doesn't have a great UI right now, so I find it's easiest to toggle between one tab that shows precip and another tab that shows winds. Up to about 69 hours out, you can see from the 700 mb level wind streamlines that the precip appears to be coming from the gulf along the front. This is the overrunning event. You can also see that the closed 925 circulation has formed over VA, and an area of enhanced precip is forming on its northern side (where the winds come from the east and northeast) At around 81 hours, you can see that the circulation at 925 has shifted southeast, taking the enhanced precip with it. But there is a new area of precipitation near Wilmington, NC that was not there at 00z. I believe the reason for this is that the trough has shifted at 12z so that the winds at 700-850 mb come onshore, whereas at 00z they ran parallel to the coast. At around 87 hours, there is ongoing precip near the northern delmarva peninsula that wasn't there at 00z. This could be due to the shift in the 700 mb winds, but I think it also has to do with the formation of closed circulation at 850 mb that wasn't there at 00z. This circulation at 850 mb is likely related to the closed H7 contour that Bob pointed out. Put it all together, and you get the final qpf map. The stripe from Augusta, GA through Washington, DC is from the gulf moisture pulled up along the front. The enhanced precip in central VA is from the circulation at around 925 mb. The enhanced precip in eastern NC is from the onshore flow from just off the SE coast. This gives us three ways in which things could get better: 1) The trough shifts in a way that brings up more moisture from the gulf for the overrunning event. Of course, the trough could also shift to make things worse. 2) The 925 mb circulation shifts north (the formation of closed circulation at higher levels could also help). 3) The upper-level winds near Wilmington turn almost due north to bring moisture from the SE coast to our neck of the woods. I believe this is one of the reasons why the trough becoming less positive would be a good thing. As usual, please take this with a grain of salt as I'm just figuring this stuff out. And if I'm wrong, please let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 The RGEM ensemble is supportive of a two-part event, with light precip in DC tomorrow and Tuesday. The high-res RGEM saw no precip tomorrow, unlike the 12z RGEM and 3k NAM. And fwiw, I think the global ensembles are still useful at this range. Especially after seeing the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 when did the euro become the new CRAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 The NAMs are a disaster run for Winchester. What else is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: when did the euro become the new CRAS Yeah, I'm going to wait another run before I buy it. The pattern really isn't favorable for anything more than 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The NAMs are a disaster run for Winchester. What else is new? I still receive 2", but the NAM definitely shifted somewhat south with accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3k has a dusting around here tomorrow afternoon. Get's up to a half inch in areas. This could cause some travel issues if temps do indeed stay below freezing tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 If you toggle backward, you can see the NAM runs windshield-wipering between the runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 The 3km NAM is actually a half-inch tomorrow afternoon. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Chips on the table and pushed to the center, I am IN on this. Always go with a simple setup. Simple = successful snow event. Never hold back, I have three purple chips. five pumpkins and a blue-gray chip in there as well. My bar is half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, MN Transplant said: The 3km NAM is actually a half-inch tomorrow afternoon. Interesting. Rgem and cmc had it too. It looks like an IVT that grabs some moisture off the atl and squeezes it out over our area. Might be something to it. Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, stormy said: I still receive 2", but the NAM definitely shifted somewhat south with accumulating snow. Lucky you. You know what I get? A big fat frikin ZERO. Just like the rest of the trash storms this year: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Nam. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, gymengineer said: If you toggle backward, you can see the NAM runs windshield-wipering between the runs. Nams prob aren't the best tools yet. Once the front and precip is happening their value goes up. At least imho anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nams prob aren't the best tools yet. Once the front and precip is happening their value goes up. At least imho anyways. I'll 2nd that. I just wish it would be more consistent. Some events it does well and others, naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Euro gives us a bomb 12z on Friday. Completely loses said bomb 12z Saturday. Then brings it back 12z Sunday. I don't know about you guys but I'm not looking forward to 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I'll 2nd that. I just wish it would be more consistent. Some events it does well and others, naso much. Both of the Nam's are picking up on the light dusting tomorrow, though. Which I think would be inside their useful range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Mount Holly's take- not too impressed. An inch or less with a band of light snow showers along the front, with central/northern coastal NJ possibly getting 1-4" IF the Euro idea is correct. Basically they believe any coastal development will be too late, and too far north, and only impact places NE of Philly if it occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Both of the Nam's are picking up on the light dusting tomorrow, though. Which I think would be inside their useful range. 18z RGEM has it to. It will be interesting to see what the 18z high-res RGEM says. At 12z it said there would be no snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Mount Holly's take- not too impressed. An inch or less with a band of light snow showers along the front, with central/northern coastal NJ possibly getting 1-4" IF the Euro idea is correct. Basically they believe any coastal development will be too late, and too far north, and only impact places NE of Philly if it occurs. And that is probably a good call in all reality. Just with the seasonal trend this year you have to favor east. I definitely was disappointed in the 18Z NAM. It basically shut me out after giving me 2-3 on the previous run. It is a precarious storm for us out here. If the coastal develops we are probably screwed in all honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 19 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Lucky you. You know what I get? A big fat frikin ZERO. Just like the rest of the trash storms this year: LWX gives you 1-2 and down my way 2-3 as of 2:40 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 This 'event' has all the seasonal earmarkings of a coating-1" for many and all of us once again saying how we cant believe we wasted 6 days of time and energy tracking this. EPS/CRAS are teasing us. Like Bob said.....an inch would be a win but there would still be alot of tired eyes after all of the tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 yep, a real poophole storm.. a few 1/2 to 1" events are not gonna get us to seasonal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 The most difficult aspect to this system we are tracking is not the lightness of the snow, but that fact that we are resorting to the CRAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I’m glad the storm already happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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