Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I can already predict the eps run...lol. majority support for the op with some juiced and dry outliers. Hopefully the dry outliers are out numbered by the juiced ones but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I can already predict the eps run...lol. majority support for the op with some juiced and dry outliers. Hopefully the dry outliers are out numbered by the juiced ones but I doubt it. Bob, you thjink the EPS will show any potential/ trends for possible Jan. 22 to 23 rd event ? That's are last real chance , if I am correct, as after that there is the resumption of the Jan. thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's very dicey. Cva jackpots becuase of close proximity to good upper level support. Which was a marked improvement fron 0z. The localized nature of the setup is a bit of a bummer for the reasons you just pointed out. I'm actually a bit surprised with the run. It's maximizing what's available but not really close to getting broad coverage to the north. Interesting take on the event without much support. Could be the euro's amp tendencies at play. If it still looks similar in 24 hours it will be more believable. I feel that odds are a hair better than 50/50 I get my 2". One thing to keep in mind is that the models have been pretty insistent on jackpotting CVA. If they don't start shifting it north by 0z run, we're probably out of the game on that happening. Jmho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I can already predict the eps run...lol. majority support for the op with some juiced and dry outliers. Hopefully the dry outliers are out numbered by the juiced ones but I doubt it. Yes and a couple will show 12"+ storm for Norfolk and ENC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, frd said: Bob, you thjink the EPS will show any potential/ trends for possible Jan. 22 to 23 rd event ? That's are last real chance , if I am correct, as after that there is the resumption of the Jan. thaw. Too far out to think on absolutes. Personally, I think after the warm rainer in a week or so will be the last of the really warm stuff. Ensembles are converging on potential troughing in the east on the means d12+ and no longer digging troughs to San Diego. This is a really bad year for d10+ stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Too far out to think on absolutes. Personally, I think after the warm rainer in a week or so will be the last of the really warm stuff. Ensembles are converging on potential troughing in the east on the means d12+ and no longer digging troughs to San Diego. This is a really bad year for d10+ stuff. Ha ha true. This winter so far has been educational learning more about model bias, and how even the Euro has issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 EPS closes off the 500's again at 84 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: EPS closes off the 500's again at 84 hr. Yeah EPS looks pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Wow, euro ens look better than a I thought. Around 17 warning level events. A couple big ones too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Anyone not willing to "take" this lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Heh. Have fun dreaming about a couple of these... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Wow, euro ens look better than a I thought. Around 17 warning level events. A couple big ones too. Cautiously optimistic down here in Fredericksburg.....interested to see if Euro moves toward GFS or GFS moves toward Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh. Have fun dreaming about a couple of these... ..or a dozen lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Euro and EPS really went out on there own here. Even the Sref isn't that bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Amped said: Euro and EPS really went out on there own here. Even the Sref isn't that bullish. It's either a huge fluke run or the first model to pick up on an amped coastal. Pun intended....LoL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Amped said: Euro and EPS really went out on there own here. Even the Sref isn't that bullish. Let's hope the Euro wants his crown back...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, Amped said: Euro and EPS really went out on there own here. Even the Sref isn't that bullish. lol Euro may not be correct here, but SREFs are always complete garbage so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: ..or a dozen lol. Feeling good about my if not 1-3 then more call. I'm skeptical as heck until something other than the dethroned king and his minions show it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 e21 hot damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Anyone not willing to "take" this lol? Sold please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 A bunch of those EPS members are double-digit snowfalls lol. It's enough to keep me interested for now even though the Euro has been garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Anyone not willing to "take" this lol? Well. If you want to get picky it does have the lightest precip west. But I would take a 2 inch storm at this point and be ecstatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Feeling good about my if not 1-3 then more call. I'm skeptical as heck until something other than the dethroned king and his minions show it Its hard to buy into at this point, but the evolution is at least conceivable, and it is the Euro, not the JMA lol. An inch or 2 for this event is a major win in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 This drops 1ft region wide. Weenie dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Its hard to buy into at this point, but the evolution is at least conceivable, and it is the Euro, not the JMA lol. An inch or 2 for this event is a major win in my book. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=FXE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Most of those good euro ens solutions do it the same way. H5 closes off and the coastal tucks in close going into NJ or NY like Thanatos posted. Not sure how much I buy that progression but it's hard to completely discount when more than 10 ens members do the same thing. Maybe this is one of those times when we see the solution in the med or lr and then lose it before coming back at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I'm having a bit of trouble keeping the timing together here. Are we looking at a potential coastal overnight Wed., with potential overrunning Tues, with potential overrun to the overrun as early as tomorrow afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I’ll take e21 and a bottle of anything...to go! LOLz. Hopefully a few more ticks, stretches, and boobs gets us to a warning level scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 28 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: This drops 1ft region wide. Weenie dream The heck has the Euro been smokin? Lol Somebody must've clogged the computers with the good leaves... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Best part about the 12z EPS is that NYC and PHL mix but we don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.