ATreglown Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 hour ago, ravensrule said: Are you talking about snow here or something else?. With DT, I mean really. Kidding aside, I actually know Dave. We but heads on alot of things. Politics is a major. And I am a Vikings fan and he is an Eagles fan. Well, we know where that goes. But besides that, we actually have good conversations about weather. Yes, we joke about his snow hole, but that is just play talk. All in all, we disagree on a lot, but some how we are what I consider friends, We are 2 people of very opposites that at times but still seem to have a friend type of relationship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 PAH has now had over 8" of snow, I wonder what the forecast was there? No real sign of any surface features just a strong push of cold air against a weak frontal boundary. It may be a sign that larger totals are possible in the MA, as the models would probably not go anywhere near 8" for the set-up they had. Just looking at the weather map for 06z, same temperature at ROA as at Tuktoyaktuk on the northwest coast of Canada, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 hours ago, ATreglown said: With DT, I mean really. Kidding aside, I actually know Dave. We but heads on alot of things. Politics is a major. And I am a Vikings fan and he is an Eagles fan. Well, we know where that goes. But besides that, we actually have good conversations about weather. Yes, we joke about his snow hole, but that is just play talk. All in all, we disagree on a lot, but some how we are what I consider friends, We are 2 people of very opposites that at times but still seem to have a friend type of relationship. Couple of days ago at the Dale City Rec Center, I overheard a lady praising DT's forecasts, she said she reads him all the time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 You guys will like the 6z namSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The latest from LWX... (snip) .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- Cdfnt will cross the Appalachians later today and slowly progress ewd reaching the I-81 corridor by 00Z Wed. Snow today will fall mainly over the upslope areas of the Appalachians behind the front/wind shift. Some snow could also affect nrn MD counties along the Mason- Dixon line but this is not a done deal as some models and ensemble keep this area dry through much of the day. Tonight and the first half of Wed is when the majority of precip will fall as heights fall in response to approaching upper level trof and forcing for upward vertical motion increases. Deterministic models and their respective ensembles depict precip breaking up as it crosses the mtns with a secondary area of snow over the VA piedmont late tonight into Wed. Ensemble QPF is generally 0.1 to 0.2 inches along and south of the I-64 and west of the I-81 corridors. A big minima or hole in the precip is shown over nrn VA and central MD. Even with these small amounts of QPF, the very cold temperatures will result in SLRs in the order of 15 to 1 and even a little bit of snow potentially causing moderate impacts given sfc temps expected in the mid 20s. It is possible that additional advisories may be needed for the Charlottesville and Fredericksburg areas, but since precip is not expected to begin until late second period or perhaps closer to 12Z Wed decided to hold off on any advisories. Also, our snow probs indicate only a 50% prob of snow exceeding 2 inches and 80% confidence is needed. For the metro areas, the prob of exceeding one inch is about 50-60% which would require an advzy given snow is expected to impact the Wed morning commute, but this is again late second or even third period event. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 This is pretty bullish. Guess they are counting on ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 If the precip hole(minima) verifies, is the Euro king again? lol Actually this potential has existed and been hinted at on guidance for a while now, it was just more to the east. The late developing/ too far offshore coastal is partially effing things up for here. It would be better if that didn't exist at all. Good to see the qpf has increased some on the 0z Euro for places like Philly and NJ and central VA, but it is still putrid for much of this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: If the precip hole(minima) verifies, is the Euro king again? lol Actually this potential has existed and been hinted at on guidance for a while now, it was just more to the east. The late developing/ too far offshore coastal is partially effing things up for here. It would be better if that didn't exist at all. Good to see the qpf has increased on the 0z Euro for places like Philly and NJ and central VA, but it is still putrid for much of this region. Stuck in between. Your right. Without the wave we would have been a lock for 1-3 at least just from the front. When the wave first showed up the gfs and others that had it were south and it was possibly helping us. But you have to be north of the developing wave to take advantage of the easterly component to enhance precip along the front there. It ends up developing east of us. Then as that develops more circulation it interferes with the SW overrunning flow along the front. Then to finish us off the upper level low to our south comes across with enough closed circulation to completely shut down whatever was left of the frontal overrunning snow. Wave north. Upper low south. Stuck in the middle with flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Stuck in between. Your right. Without the wave we would have been a lock for 1-3 at least just from the front. When the wave first showed up the gfs and others that had it were south and it was possibly helping us. But you have to be north of the developing wave to take advantage of the easterly component to enhance precip along the front there. It ends up developing east of us. Then as that develops more circulation it interferes with the SW overrunning flow along the front. Then to finish us off the upper level low to our south comes across with enough closed circulation to completely shut down whatever was left of the frontal overrunning snow. Wave north. Upper low south. Stuck in the middle with flurries. Yeah I didn't even mention the mid level low south of here. But its all conspiring against what would have been an easy light to moderate waa snowfall. Even when it appears we should be good to get a straight up simple overrunning deal, it ends up convoluted with too many moving parts, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Frozen snowy mist falling here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Seems like good agreement on 0.05-0.15 for the immediate dc metro. My call would be trace to an inch for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 All I can do is laugh at the meso models. The Winchester screw job is in full effect on them. But we are down to radar watching at this point anyways. Bob' 1-3 still seems good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Woke up to moderate snow...since has lightened up but got .25" I saw the better returns right over your hood, I was thinking to myself, "Losetoa must have at least something on the ground." lol Looks like a general 2-4" up by the border for this one. Hoping to scrap an inch or so in NW MoCo. Heading to parents place on shore tomorrow. $100 says I'll go and they get nothing cuz I'm there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: If the precip hole(minima) verifies, is the Euro king again? lol Actually this potential has existed and been hinted at on guidance for a while now, it was just more to the east. The late developing/ too far offshore coastal is partially effing things up for here. It would be better if that didn't exist at all. Good to see the qpf has increased some on the 0z Euro for places like Philly and NJ and central VA, but it is still putrid for much of this region. I hope that was a joke. The Euro has been all over the place. The GFS has never given Baltimore/DC more than 2 inches. I went all the way back to 1/12/18 12z Run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 24 degrees. Light snow. About 1/4" coating overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: 24 degrees. Light snow. About 1/4" coating overnight. Yeah you and L6 have been under good returns all morning. I’ve been on the fringe so it’s just flurries and foggy frozen mist here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, mappy said: Yeah you and L6 have been under good returns all morning. I’ve been on the fringe so it’s just flurries and foggy frozen mist here Models totally missed the band overnight by about 40 miles. If they mess up in the same way tonight we will be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Sideways snow in Shreveport , Louisiana. Willing to re-visit our snow issues here all being the fault of our friend who moved here from Louisiana at the start of last winter. They’ve had more snow since he left Louisiana than we’vd had here since he moved I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 there's a coating of snow in merrifield. Thought it was dried brine that was making the edges of the roads white as nothing fell at home. Nope, it was snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Why is Harford County two hours late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Roads suck in Cecil County, MD. Nice thin layer of snow will do that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Sideways snow in Shreveport , Louisiana. Willing to re-visit our snow issues here all being the fault of our friend who moved here from Louisiana at the start of last winter. They’ve had more snow since he left Louisian than we’vd had here since he moved I think. That would be me, and yes, my friends out of Baton Rouge already got a 6 incher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 42 minutes ago, Interstate said: I hope that was a joke. The Euro has been all over the place. The GFS has never given Baltimore/DC more than 2 inches. I went all the way back to 1/12/18 12z Run You might have too much time on your hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 20 minutes ago, H2O said: there's a coating of snow in merrifield. Thought it was dried brine that was making the edges of the roads white as nothing fell at home. Nope, it was snow. We got a couple hours of really light dendrites last night in Burke (either side of 9:00) that coated everything. Side roads were covered when I left this morning, but secondary roads were absolutely fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 If this was summer, then a nice thunderstorm just popped up over Leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 23 minutes ago, Interstate said: Why is Harford County two hours late? because they got snow and roads are icy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I’m hugging the Navgem. Looks like it has the best front passage of all models right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, MD Snow said: I’m hugging the Navgem. Looks like it has the best front passage of all models right now. I’m huggin Navgem as well. That would seem to drive up QPF. Maybe we’ll get a good NAMing today as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 49 minutes ago, supernovasky said: That would be me, and yes, my friends out of Baton Rouge already got a 6 incher. I know. I was trying to be more gentle, but I've decided that this is now all your fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 New thread. Hope for the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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