psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: H5 keeps backing. Not much time left but I guess it's within the realm. It's a looong shot. What I'm worried about is getting stuck in between the better lift from the frontal wave and the upper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Not good for Northern MD, but for us snow starved south of the Potomac, it' the best event of the season, as depicted by the GFS. Edit: still not good. But it's all we have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's a looong shot. What I'm worried about is getting stuck in between the better lift from the frontal wave and the upper low. No sense worrying anymore. Chips fall at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, Interstate said: Yep... and I know that was your fear last night Yea people give me grief for my "what could go wrong" but my pointing it out doesn't make it happen. I've just seen enough fails to know what to look for and what the most likely "it's all falling apart" scenario is. When I see guidance moving towards that I don't like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Cobalt looked decent Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs was a bad run imo. Moved the good stuff with the wave even further north. Not even close there. And the southern wave while closer isn't gonna do it. The upper low is swinging east. No high to the north. Nothing to get precip here. It's actually hurting us as the squeeze play between the closed low to our south and the frontal wave to the north is killing the frontal band as it's passing us. Not gonna sugar coat the run it wasn't what I wanted to see. It was a bad run however qpf. for our area has remained basically unchanged the last 4 gfs runs. Maybe a little drier at 0z just now. .17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 H5 keeps backing more the next run or two and that northern low is even farther west and it will allow the southern precip to move north more before it goes east. You'll then have the scenario the euro first sniffed out a few days ago with rain on NYC and a few inches in central Virginia up to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It's a looong shot. What I'm worried about is getting stuck in between the better lift from the frontal wave and the upper low. I need an easier hobby...one over which I have more control, like changing the laws of gravity or fixing the earth's axis of rotation so we can have year round winter weather as good as this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Cobalt looked decent Sent from my SM-G930V using TapatalkI mean icon lol Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 You guys need to look at the positives with the negatives. Lower precip but starting after dark and possibly below freezing. Could end up with better accumulation with less qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Yea people give me grief for my "what could go wrong" but my pointing it out doesn't make it happen. I've just seen enough fails to know what to look for and what the most likely "it's all falling apart" scenario is. When I see guidance moving towards that I don't like it. Your worse case scenarios always play out. Not once have I seen your best case scenarios happen Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Your worse case scenarios always play out. Not once have I seen your best case scenarios happen Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk You might be on to something.... I'll hug the icon until the euro comes out with another brand new solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 GFS and Euro are actually not too far apart now. The main difference is that the Euro has moved the jackpot zone 75 miles farther south. I wouldn't be surpried to bring it back up to near where the GFS has it at 00z. Central VA has been showing up as the precip max in a lot of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You guys need to look at the positives with the negatives. Lower precip but starting after dark and possibly below freezing. Could end up with better accumulation with less qpf. Straight out of the weenie handbook. Can't tell you what page number it's on because that page was one of the group ripped out in disgust last March when the proposition was last suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Straight out of the weenie handbook. Can't tell you what page number it's on because that page was one of the group ripped out in disgust last March when the proposition was last suggested. We need to root for rain in NYC and BOS. Not because it helps our chances. It will just make us feel better because we got a trace of snow and they didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ji said: Your worse case scenarios always play out. Not once have I seen your best case scenarios happen Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk January 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: We need to root for rain in NYC and BOS. Not because it helps our chances. It will just make us feel better because we got a trace of snow and they didn't. You have no idea how happy I was to see the Rgem and Gfs cut back on their snowfall totals because of the rain. I was talking to myself I was so giddy! Really though, I'm not sure we really need that much of an adjustment for the long shot to become a 2' putt. And if we get to see more model runs showing rain for ny and box, our consolation prize has been received. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 41 minutes ago, Scraff said: Gfs looks looks good for DT land. Let’s shift that north ASAP. No, no,no!! You may not be a fan, but I live just SE of him. You could say we are neighbors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, ATreglown said: No, no,no!! You may not be a fan, but I live just SE of him. You could say we are neighbors. You're in the wrong place then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 33 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I need an easier hobby...one over which I have more control, like changing the laws of gravity or fixing the earth's axis of rotation so we can have year round winter weather as good as this year. I would prefer a hobby study for napping . This season between holiday and weather has done me in. I can test mattresses for the best napping!! Perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 41 minutes ago, WVclimo said: The snow shadow in the northern Shenandoah Valley is back on the 00Z GFS. Hope East Coast NPZ already turned in for the night: That is basically right over his house. And it shows my area in about the same boat, so this WILL be the correct outcome, like the rest of this 'winter'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: You're in the wrong place then. Not really. He is in the Chester snow hole. He gets the shaft, and he always hates me because I am in the honey hole and gets good snows in PG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, ATreglown said: Not really. He is in the Chester snow hole. He gets the shaft, and he always hates me because I am in the honey hole and gets good snows in PG. Paging RR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I wish i could stay here in West Virginia where they are going to get 3 inches of fresh snow. But, I look forward to my car top coating back in Dale City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Ukie closes off H5 west of us, but then again so did the 00z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 17 minutes ago, ATreglown said: Not really. He is in the Chester snow hole. He gets the shaft, and he always hates me because I am in the honey hole and gets good snows in PG. Are you talking about snow here or something else?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 21 minutes ago, ATreglown said: Not really. He is in the Chester snow hole. He gets the shaft, and he always hates me because I am in the honey hole and gets good snows in PG. I meant the wrong sub-forum. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Not likely it will be big here, but seeing a lot of overperformance of the snow in KY and in SE MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Ukie about the same as 12z. Not great for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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