WEATHER53 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 21 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: I always thought ninos were bad too. I thought they gave us a lot of SE ridge torch stuff. I seem to remember a Nino winter in 1997 or 1998 that was like the worst in history. It was warm and snowless. Its almost like, no pattern is really a good pattern here. Strong ninos tend to be too mild, weak to moderate are good, neutrals lean mild, weak to moderate ninas are cold but dry, strong ninas too mild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said: Strong ninos tend to be too mild, weak to moderate are good, neutrals lean mild, weak to moderate ninas are cold but dry, strong ninas too mild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 24 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Anyone know what is forcing them? The 3km NAM has been on this, but the timing wasn’t great. Haven’t diagnosed it, but easterly flow is interacting with something causing just enough lift to squeeze out some precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The 3km NAM has been on this, but the timing wasn’t great. Haven’t diagnosed it, but easterly flow is interacting with something causing just enough lift to squeeze out some precip. Anything here? (Small circulation?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 A few flurries and 25.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 A few random flurries here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Nice coating on grass and sidewalks here... --SN right now Sent quick tweet to LWX about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 RGEM basically holds serve around Baltimore and DC, but tucks the coastal in near NYC and makes some ski resorts in the Poconos very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 44 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: I always thought ninos were bad too. I thought they gave us a lot of SE ridge torch stuff. I seem to remember a Nino winter in 1997 or 1998 that was like the worst in history. It was warm and snowless. Its almost like, no pattern is really a good pattern here. Not always true...There's a reason why the slogan out of the outlook thread said "Mod Nino + blocking"? It all depends on the strength of it. Weak to moderate is generally our sweet spot...and in my novice opinion, our best odds to reach climo or more. Now, 97 was a strong Niño similar to what we had in 2016 (except it may have been a little stronger? Someone correct if I'm wrong about that). Those we don't do that well in except every so often (2 of the last 4 strong niños featured huge blizzards, while the other two, including 97, didn't, lol. And even in the best of setups, things gotta track right...but I put my lowest expectations in Niña years...because we tens to struggle with those (although not impossible to score). Let's hope we can buck Niña climo at some point this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 GFS? I know. I know. Grasping at cold dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 By the time we get to the 12z runs tomorrow... all the QPF will dry up for the cities... Not to mention high's around 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: By the time we get to the 12z runs tomorrow... all the QPF will dry up for the cities... Not to mention high's around 40 Yeah, was gonna mention the temps. At least it is cold before this event, or else we'd have to subtract an inch off of our already non existent snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The gfs has had 8 consecutive runs that have slowed down the front. It might not get here until next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: The gfs has had 8 consecutive runs that have slowed down the front. It might not get here until next week. and as the front slows... the QPF dries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The gfs has had 8 consecutive runs that have slowed down the front. It might not get here until next week. Or it might allow a second storm to develop and hit us. Pure weenie right there my friend. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Noticeable shift North with that Southern bullseye of snowfall through hr 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The gfs has had 8 consecutive runs that have slowed down the front. It might not get here until next week. It gets a little less positively tilted with each run. It also has the coastal tucked in off of NYC this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The gfs has had 8 consecutive runs that have slowed down the front. It might not get here until next week. Now it's hurting us. Now that it's pretty settled that the first wave will be the one, once that wave gets going and moves north of us it kills the frontal precip. But now that is getting stalled to our northwest and doesn't really get in until it's being robbed of its moisture by the developing wave moving away. We need that over us as it's being enhanced not coming through as a dried out shell after the wave is moving away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Or it might allow a second storm to develop and hit us. Pure weenie right there my friend. Lol Yea, it keeps backing heights towards neutral. A few more of those and it goes negative. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Now it's hurting us. Now that it's pretty settled that the first wave will be the one, once that wave gets going and moves north of us it kills the frontal precip. But now that is getting stalled to our northwest and doesn't really get in until it's being robbed of its moisture by the developing wave moving away. We need that over us as it's being enhanced not coming through as a dried out shell after the wave is moving away. Yep... and I know that was your fear last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 hmm Could be due to the front slowing down, but the snow bullseye is slightly North run per run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Gfs looks looks good for DT land. Let’s shift that north ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 That’s an lol map for C Md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The trend I posted earlier continues. Edit: Never mind. Ninja'd by Cobalt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: hmm Could be due to the front slowing down, but the snow bullseye is slightly North run per run. Yes but time is not on our side anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: hmm Could be due to the front slowing down, but the snow bullseye is slightly North run per run. H5 keeps backing. Not much time left but I guess it's within the realm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The GFS is basically my biggest event of the season. I’d gladly take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Gfs was a bad run imo. Moved the good stuff with the wave even further north. Not even close there. And the southern wave while closer isn't gonna do it. The upper low is swinging east. No high to the north. Nothing to get precip here. It's actually hurting us as the squeeze play between the closed low to our south and the frontal wave to the north is killing the frontal band as it's passing us. Not gonna sugar coat the run it wasn't what I wanted to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: H5 keeps backing. Not much time left but I guess it's within the realm. I mean, if the front keeps slowing down, we'll have plenty of time In all seriousness, if this does continue up to the event, realistic expectation is that it'll only really impact @Jebman's Jebwalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The snow shadow in the northern Shenandoah Valley is back on the 00Z GFS. Hope East Coast NPZ already turned in for the night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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