BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 fwiw, lwx still has most of us 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 19 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: Thanks for getting back on topic! I’ll throw in a guess for EZF at 1.2”. Would be biggest storm so far for here.... What about PG VA, left out again..... J/K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 We've done this dance many times. Precip will go up on the models before the event, and then we'll get 1/3 of that. I'll go with DCA: 0.7" IAD: 1.4" BWI: 1.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToTo Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Snow falling in Dale City ❄️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If it's ok to talk about snow ITT, I'd put my O/U numbers (pending tonight's 0z NAMing and Euro flurries): BWI: 1" IAD: 1" DCA: 0.5" MBY: 1.3" Hoffman: 2.8" Mappy: 2.5" RIC: 2" Funchester: 0.7" I like it and fits my call so I appreciate you not destroying my hopes and dreams. I'm setting my yard bar at 1.5" but that's pushing it. Going big I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, ToTo said: Snow falling in Dale City ❄️ The dual-pol hydrometer scan shows a nice little burst along the river south of the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, ToTo said: Snow falling in Dale City ❄️ Pretty sure any flurries right now are unrelated to this upcoming event, but I do see incredibly light returns on the radar loop http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-N0Q-1-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: If I can get that blob to my northwest to shift say 15 miles southeast I be very very happy The 18z "Swiss Super HD" model on weather.us says you might get your wish. I say that only half in jest. I just looked into that model, and I think it's the COSMO-1 mesoscale model. If I'm correct, it's a Swiss model that is run at 1.1 km resolution using boundary conditions provided by the Euro. It's been jumping around recently, probably because the Euro has, but I looked back at the 1/4 event and it did reasonably well. When the Euro went big the night before the snow the Swiss model did not - it actually cut back a little from its 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 56 minutes ago, 87storms said: the only true drought i remember is back around 2000 (maybe in '99) or so. there were actually water restrictions in place that summer, but i don't know if we've had anything close to that since. some rudimentary and local stats here that I kept: http://mawsweather.com/drought.html --waaay don the right column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I have had no time to pay much attention to this today, work stupid busy. Just curious, has anyone actually looked at radar today to see if how things are going compared to whats being modeled and see which one seems to be doing the best. After all, the mini storm is actually in progress now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 0z Nam still raising heights this run vs. prior runs. Don't know what, if any, changes there will be to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 42 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If it's ok to talk about snow ITT, I'd put my O/U numbers (pending tonight's 0z NAMing and Euro flurries): BWI: 1" IAD: 1" DCA: 0.5" MBY: 1.3" Hoffman: 2.8" Mappy: 2.5" RIC: 2" Funchester: 0.7" Looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Trend from 18Z to slow the onset of precip continues with the 00Z NAM. This morning models had snow breaking out before daybreak here. Made sense when the WWA came out this afternoon and went into effect at 5:00 a.m. Latest NAM doesn't even get precip going here until 3:00 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, cae said: The 18z "Swiss Super HD" model on weather.us says you might get your wish. I say that only half in jest. I just looked into that model, and I think it's the COSMO-1 mesoscale model. If I'm correct, it's a Swiss model that is run at 1.1 km resolution using boundary conditions provided by the Euro. It's been jumping around recently, probably because the Euro has, but I looked back at the 1/4 event and it did reasonably well. When the Euro went big the night before the snow the Swiss model did not - it actually cut back a little from its 18z run. I'll hug it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I'll hug it. Nobody tops an inch from that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Nobody tops an inch from that map. I'm pretty sure it's still liquid precipitation, given that the gradient ends at 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Nobody tops an inch from that map. It's liquid equivalent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 It's liquid equivalentLolSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's liquid equivalent What's the "(snow)" for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: What's the "(snow)" for? Liquid that falls as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: Liquid that falls as snow. The output display looks odd like that. Is it human altered I wonder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Both 3k and 12k NAMs are several hours slower with the onset of precip. Does anyone know how this will affect the event itself? I'm sure not by much, but still curios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Both 3k and 12k NAMs are several hours slower with the onset of precip. Does anyone know how this will affect the event itself? I'm sure not by much, but still curios. Dry, less than 0.1 for dca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 The NAM looks good. .2 throughout the majority of the area. A little less east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: The NAM looks good. .2 throughout the majority of the area. A little less east. Garbage for DC folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The NAM looks good. .2 throughout the majority of the area. A little less east. I knew you'd like that run, especially compared to the 12z one. I guess 0.1" qpf is my bad for MBY, but I feel bad for the DC folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 They need to change the acronym of the NAM to NMA for "No Mid Atlantic. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: Garbage for DC folks It's always been a 1-3 event. And that is what the NAM is showing. It was never going to be a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 FWIW, flurries around Annandale/Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 We might still do ok but it's a shame this is coming trough disjointed. The wave develops east of us with the lead vort. Then the upper level energy splits and the better piece dives under us and comes through behind. If it had been centered over us and one consolidated wave we could have had a nice hit here. Little stuff like a stupid slight out of sync timing can throw the whole thing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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