psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 33 minutes ago, stormy said: You accurately demonstrate your mentality........ Drought occurs in both winter and summer regardless of your understanding. 3 inches of snow is helpless to mitigate a drought. Lol yea please educate me. Perhaps I'm focused on something else. You seem to have a one track mind. I bet if everyone gets 6" of snow tomorrow they will be happy regardless of the effect it has on the water table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, stormy said: I am happy that you don't see any drought. In fact the AHPS analysis reveals 25 - 50% of normal precipitation during the last 30 - 90 days. What does that say to you??? It's been dry. No one is disputing that but your trying to turn a very minor thing that belongs buried on page 11 (the lowest level of drought designation) into some front page story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 You should start a drought thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Why are you all talking about a drought in the thread about tomorrow's snowfail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knglover Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Why are you all talking about a drought in the thread about tomorrow's snowfail? Because thats what is sucking up all the snow! Straight from the the clooods and into the aquafuurs! And you call yoursef a Meteorologist....hmmmph! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Why are you all talking about a drought in the thread about tomorrow's snowfail? We just cant be bitter by the lack of snow, we need something else to harp on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Why are you all talking about a drought in the thread about tomorrow's snowfail? In a precipitation drought, little falls. A drought breeds drought including snowfall. The 90 day precip. over much of this region is less than 50%. Why is this?? Can you tell me? I have looked at many predictions from the CPC and models during the past 60 days and they were all wrong. Can you enlighten me???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 drought talk is a little overblown in winter where precip is usually less anyway. i was actually impressed with the torrential downpours we had the other day. even saw some lightning. it's a dry pattern, but eh...it's not like we're in a desert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormy said: In a precipitation drought, little falls. A drought breeds drought including snowfall. The 90 day precip. over much of this region is less than 50%. Why is this?? Can you tell me? I have looked at many predictions from the CPC and models during the past 60 days and they were all wrong. Can you enlighten me???? Seriously go start a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I hope it rains like hell tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: drought talk is a little overblown in winter where precip is usually less anyway. i was actually impressed with the torrential downpours we had the other day. even saw some lightning. it's a dry pattern, but eh...it's not like we're in a desert. drought talk in here is always overblown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Yeoman said: drought talk in here is always overblown the only true drought i remember is back around 2000 (maybe in '99) or so. there were actually water restrictions in place that summer, but i don't know if we've had anything close to that since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Seriously go start a thread. I did what I could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 48 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: "Normal" precipitation is just an average. Statistics are a great thing except when they are twisted and misinterpreted to make a silly point. If we average 5 inches of precipitation in a given month and we get 1 inch of precipitation its just the weather doing what the weather does. Its variable. It changes. If you want to talk about ways to prepare for drought that's fine. But saying we are at X% of Y normal precipitation is completely meaningless. There are lies, damned lies and statistics. Precipitation is but one component; in fact there are the following components that factor into the drought assessment: Precipitation Stream Flow Reservoir Levels Temperature and Evaporative demand Soil Moisture Vegetative health Wildfire conditions Drought Impact Reports Expert Local Input Take this handy tutorial, you might learn something :http://drought.unl.edu/archive/Tutorials/USDM_Tutorial/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Is it a good sign when a page of the storm thread is about a minor drought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Is it a good sign when a page of the storm thread is about a minor drought? we might get nam'd now at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Is it a good sign when a page of the storm thread is about a minor drought? Yes, very. It obviously means we're gonna be shellacked with a drought busting HECS tomorrow. It's all reverse psychology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Is it a good sign when a page of the storm thread is about a minor drought? I thought I clicked on the wrong thread...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knglover Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Is it a good sign when a page of the storm thread is about a minor drought? Don't know about you but this drought discussion made me want to go buy toilet paper and milk even more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Seriously go start a thread. A thread on this board is not important. This board is only reactive to populist belief. LOL I shouldn't have to start a thread, it should be obvious to intelligent folks like yourself, But, it is not. Your seem to be a false prophet. Please prove me wrong with the real time statistics from the USDM that show us approaching a serious drought. Can you really believe that less than 50% of normal precip. in 90 days is not significant?? If you do, you are not to be taken seriously. This situation can be reversed next week, but today, it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, Qaanaaq said: Precipitation is but one component; in fact there are the following components that factor into the drought assessment: Precipitation Stream Flow Reservoir Levels Temperature and Evaporative demand Soil Moisture Vegetative health Wildfire conditions Drought Impact Reports Expert Local Input Take this handy tutorial, you might learn something :http://drought.unl.edu/archive/Tutorials/USDM_Tutorial/ Honestly, lets put our focus back on snow and the threat tis thread was intended to track. I just think drought is a manmade phenomenon. And your list of 9 factors just reinforces my point. I think everyone on this forum can reasonably detect when there is a drought worth talking about. Seems like I'm spiraling into banter. You might learn something by not being so pompous about your vast drought knowledge. MBY better get Nam'd or all this drought BS was for nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I am now more optimistic, seeing trends on all guidance that look promising, so will revise to 1.5" over-under in general and local top values of 3" -- was impressed that PAH got 2.8" or more, that's a real snow hole so if they can do it .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 There’s a drought thread now. I think it’s a topic worthy of its own thread - take it there, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Stop trying to cockblock my snow with this drought talk. 3” again for RVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Yes, very. It obviously means we're gonna be shellacked with a drought busting HECS tomorrow. It's all reverse psychology That is what the 93 Superstorm was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 If it's ok to talk about snow ITT, I'd put my O/U numbers (pending tonight's 0z NAMing and Euro flurries): BWI: 1" IAD: 1" DCA: 0.5" MBY: 1.3" Hoffman: 2.8" Mappy: 2.5" RIC: 2" Funchester: 0.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Wait a gosh darn second. What kind of crazy upside down world do we live in? Is DT actually huggin the GFS? IMAGE #2 is the 18z GFS it has a bit MORE snoW over north central NC into s outh central VA ... and matches my 1st GUESS ap very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If it's ok to talk about snow ITT, I'd put my O/U numbers (pending tonight's 0z NAMing and Euro flurries): BWI: 1" IAD: 1" DCA: 0.5" MBY: 1.3" Hoffman: 2.8" Mappy: 2.5" RIC: 2" Funchester: 0.7" I see I missed a lot today. A cold smoke cartopper. Where can I leave my bucket of tears? Leesburg have a drop off? I’ll swing by on my dog sled tomorrow and make deposit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If it's ok to talk about snow ITT, I'd put my O/U numbers (pending tonight's 0z NAMing and Euro flurries): BWI: 1" IAD: 1" DCA: 0.5" MBY: 1.3" Hoffman: 2.8" Mappy: 2.5" RIC: 2" Funchester: 0.7" Thanks for getting back on topic! I’ll throw in a guess for EZF at 1.2”. Would be biggest storm so far for here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: Wait a gosh darn second. What kind of crazy upside down world do we live in? Is DT actually huggin the GFS? IMAGE #2 is the 18z GFS it has a bit MORE snoW over north central NC into s outh central VA ... and matches my 1st GUESS ap very well. So 2 inches for DCA then using his logic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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