Ji Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Participation is optional Are you talking to the storms?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 This is the fun part. Let's see what happens and enjoy anything we get. I suspect some of us are gonna get a surprise...but where? It's easy to point to the usual suspects, but I'm not ruling anything out just yet. Just a hunch. On another note, I guess our half inch this afternoon ain't happening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Participation is optional As is precipitation lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Participation PRECIPITATION is optional Fixed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, T. August said: As is precipitation lol dang it. you beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, T. August said: As is precipitation lol I wish we could pick and choose. We get what we get and like it or shut up. It's that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 This is stating the obvious but I'm nervous we get stuck between the northern and southern waves. There is an obvious fail zone between the two on all the guidance and way too much of it has it near or over us for my liking. The northern wave seems the best bet, that upper energy associated stuff to our south is trending further away every run but now the northern wave took a step back too. I wonder if it's a coincidence that the nam was best with the frontal wave and almost non existent with the southern system. Less splitting of the energy maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 50 minutes ago, Cobalt said: DT's first call map: Its actually his first GUESS not call. His first CALL map will be issued next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I have a bad feeling that the ROI on the Storm might be the worst ever like we could get a TraceSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: I have a bad feeling that the ROI on the Storm might be the worst ever like we could get a Trace Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Trace is a win. Beyond that it’s bonus time. Do your homework tomorrow night. There is no decent moisture connection to get real over running like we would want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is stating the obvious but I'm nervous we get stuck between the northern and southern waves. There is an obvious fail zone between the two on all the guidance and way too much of it has it near or over us for my liking. The northern wave seems the best bet, that upper energy associated stuff to our south is trending further away every run but now the northern wave took a step back too. I wonder if it's a coincidence that the nam was best with the frontal wave and almost non existent with the southern system. Less splitting of the energy maybe. Well if you’re nervous, then we are def seeing some accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Trace is a win. Beyond that it’s bonus time. Do your homework tomorrow night. There is no decent moisture connection to get real over running like we would want. how is a trace a win when the title of this thread is 1"-3" or bust.. a trace would be most definitely a bust in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Trace is a win. Beyond that it’s bonus time. Do your homework tomorrow night. There is no decent moisture connection to get real over running like we would want. Bob never guaranteed an overrunning snow event. He said that if he was over running the models, we'd get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 The GFS is a disaster run. Winchester snow shield in full effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 At this point it looks like we need the overrunning to continue at least until the back end of the precip passes through the area. I think the odds of getting enhancement from one of the waves are pretty low. It's hard to tell if this trend is real because the front has been slowing down on the GFS, but optimistically speaking it looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 14 minutes ago, cae said: At this point it looks like we need the overrunning to continue at least until the back end of the precip passes through the area. I think the odds of getting enhancement from one of the waves are pretty low. It's hard to tell if this trend is real because the front has been slowing down on the GFS, but optimistically speaking it looks pretty good. Pretty exciting... For New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 17 minutes ago, cae said: At this point it looks like we need the overrunning to continue at least until the back end of the precip passes through the area. I think the odds of getting enhancement from one of the waves are pretty low. It's hard to tell if this trend is real because the front has been slowing down on the GFS, but optimistically speaking it looks pretty good. Keep that trend going for another 36 hours and we could be in the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The GFS is a disaster run. Winchester snow shield in full effect. As I tried to introduce to this board 3 weeks ago. We are in a drought that has developed since September. Model bashing is not going to provide the answer. The atmospheric probabilities are not going to change regardless. Chaos reigns. The threat tomorrow and Wednesday sustains that reality. I don't believe that any human accurately understands the reasons. I do see a light of relief as we live the reality of Feb. and March. A Nina pattern is always bad for us. As far as the Euro, I have not been impressed for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 WPC is fairly bullish. So as not to fill the post with links click here to see the other percentiles or zoom out more, link is WxBell but still free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 0z models are going to get us back in the game. If I am wrong then I'm a weenie. But if I'm right I'm a weenie looking at digital snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: 0z models are going to get us back in the game. If I am wrong then I'm a weenie. But if I'm right I'm a weenie looking at digital snow! We're pretty good at last minute trends to put us in the game, but we're also good at last minute trends that put us OUT of the game. I like the optimism, and I guess it can't get any worse than the 12z Euro. famous last words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, stormy said: As I tried to introduce to this board 3 weeks ago. We are in a drought that has developed since September. Model bashing is not going to provide the answer. The atmospheric probabilities are not going to change regardless. Chaos reigns. The threat tomorrow and Wednesday sustains that reality. I don't believe that any human accurately understands the reasons. I do see a light of relief as we live the reality of Feb. and March. A Nina pattern is always bad for us. As far as the Euro, I have not been impressed for a long time. A lot of folks just got 1-2" of rain and will probably get another 1-2" early next week. Drought argument is getting watered down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: A lot of folks just got 1-2" of rain and will probably get another 1-2" early next week. Drought argument is getting watered down. It's obviously the woolly worms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: A lot of folks just got 1-2" of rain and will probably get another 1-2" early next week. Drought argument is getting watered down. That is very temporary my friend. We need 10 inches of rain slowly over a 30 - 60 day period on unfrozen ground to get us back to normal. The average person doesn't notice drought in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's obviously the woolly worms You accurately demonstrate your mentality........ Drought occurs in both winter and summer regardless of your understanding. 3 inches of snow is helpless to mitigate a drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormy said: You accurately demonstrate your mentality........ Drought occurs in both winter and summer regardless of your understanding. 3 inches of snow is helpless to mitigate a drought. Weather patterns can be dry or wet. They can be cold or hot. And they can be all different variations. Its not some massive conspiracy when we have droughts and floods and heat waves and cold snaps. It's weather. Its why most of us are here. Its not predictable. Its fun to look for patterns and similarities to past patterns. I can guarantee it will snow again the same way I can guarantee we will get a heat wave again. How it happens and when it happens is the chase that we are on here. Screaming about drought a couple days after a rainstorm is nonsensical. Sorry for the rant. In short I don't see any drought. I will continue to search for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's obviously the woolly worms Damn It... I forgot to count the rings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Until the reservoirs get to 75% of capacity... lets not talk about a drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Weather patterns can be dry or wet. They can be cold or hot. And they can be all different variations. Its not some massive conspiracy when we have droughts and floods and heat waves and cold snaps. It's weather. Its why most of us are here. Its not predictable. Its fun to look for patterns and similarities to past patterns. I can guarantee it will snow again the same way I can guarantee we will get a heat wave again. How it happens and when it happens is the chase that we are on here. Screaming about drought a couple days after a rainstorm is nonsensical. Sorry for the rant. In short I don't see any drought. I will continue to search for snow. I am happy that you don't see any drought. In fact the AHPS analysis reveals 25 - 50% of normal precipitation during the last 30 - 90 days. What does that say to you??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, stormy said: I am happy that you don't see any drought. In fact the AHPS analysis reveals 25 - 50% of normal precipitation during the last 30 - 90 days. What does that say to you??? "Normal" precipitation is just an average. Statistics are a great thing except when they are twisted and misinterpreted to make a silly point. If we average 5 inches of precipitation in a given month and we get 1 inch of precipitation its just the weather doing what the weather does. Its variable. It changes. If you want to talk about ways to prepare for drought that's fine. But saying we are at X% of Y normal precipitation is completely meaningless. There are lies, damned lies and statistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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