H2O Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Anyone else want dtk to explain some more on how the ECWMF people care about DC snow weenies? i do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Good to see the NAMS start to juice up a little bit as we approach an event. Them being dry, at least for my area, at 12Z had me a little concerned. Looks acceptable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 3k is acceptable too. This should help wash some of the bad euro taste out of our mouths. I don't know if I would say that an inch or two in NOVA is acceptable unless it was an all-day flurries situation where we could enjoy the scenery. But the Baltimore members of the board could get 3 or so . That is completely unacceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I don't know if I would say that an inch or two in NOVA is acceptable unless it was an all-day flurries situation where we could enjoy the scenery. But the Baltimore members of the board could get 3 or so . That is completely unacceptable. It’s fine. They deserve snow too. We are all together in this. It’s not our year plain and simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 When all is said and done with this one I think Bob's call of 1-3 area wide is going to be a pretty strong forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I want to believe these mesoscale models that have been dropping 0.30-0.40+" of QPF on my yard all day today, but I can't. LWX says there is a 4 % chance here of 4". The Euro also gives me pause. It has shown ~0.10" here for five straight runs, in spite of all the talk of it being jumpy. Too many times when it has been the driest model, even in the face of other models increasing totals, it has been the closest to what I actually measure. I will keep the bar set at an inch and hope for better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It’s fine. They deserve snow too. We are all together in this. It’s not our year plain and simple. I forgot lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: When all is said and done with this one I think Bob's call of 1-3 area wide is going to be a pretty strong forecast. We'll see. These light events are tricky. It's much different when an area is getting painted with .25-.50 qpf. This one ranges from practically nothing to maybe .4 top end but the .1 - .3 qpf range with no "synoptic surprise" upside potential (not much hope there) is always dicey here. I honestly wish there was more that could go right other than more juice along the front. There's still a chance for some sort of coastal enhancement but that idea has been fading for 2 days. To get a passing grade, this is the minimum of what needs to happen: Majority of the sub gets a clean 1" A fair sized chunk of the area gets 2" (like 33% of the real estate) Some legit reports of 2.5 or 3" come in and not from some slant sticker. lol If half the sub gets less than 1" and few if any crack 2" then it's a fail call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 47 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: NAM 12k is an acceptable event, 1-3 maybe more on the northern part of our sub. 18z 3km nest aint too shabby either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 We'll see what they look like when the high res qpf panels come out but looks like the RGEM retracted on us and maybe more than a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: 18z 3km nest aint too shabby either. That’s an ATL and AVL screw job if I ever saw one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We'll see what they look like when the high res qpf panels come out but looks like the RGEM retracted on us and maybe more than a little. Its still a couple of inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Huge score on the ensambles for everybod..... Oh sorry, almost everybody! At least Wes will be happy!!! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We'll see what they look like when the high res qpf panels come out but looks like the RGEM retracted on us and maybe more than a little. It's terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We'll see. These light events are tricky. It's much different when an area is getting painted with .25-.50 qpf. This one ranges from practically nothing to maybe .4 top end but the .1 - .3 qpf range with no "synoptic surprise" upside potential (not much hope there) is always dicey here. I honestly wish there was more that could go right other than more juice along the front. There's still a chance for some sort of coastal enhancement but that idea has been fading for 2 days. To get a passing grade, this is the minimum of what needs to happen: Majority of the sub gets a clean 1" A fair sized chunk of the area gets 2" (like 33% of the real estate) Some legit reports of 2.5 or 3" come in and not from some slant sticker. lol If half the sub gets less than 1" and few if any crack 2" then it's a fail call. I just want 0.5” so I have 10” for the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 DT's first call map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: DT's first call map: Up here, it's spot on but there is definitely home grown bias in that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Up here, it's spot on but there is definitely home grown bias in that map. Was gonna note that lol. Looks like a bit of what the Euro was showing, but he's obviously decently happy that he may get a good snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: DT's first EURO map: Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We'll see. These light events are tricky. It's much different when an area is getting painted with .25-.50 qpf. This one ranges from practically nothing to maybe .4 top end but the .1 - .3 qpf range with no "synoptic surprise" upside potential (not much hope there) is always dicey here. I honestly wish there was more that could go right other than more juice along the front. There's still a chance for some sort of coastal enhancement but that idea has been fading for 2 days. To get a passing grade, this is the minimum of what needs to happen: Majority of the sub gets a clean 1" A fair sized chunk of the area gets 2" (like 33% of the real estate) Some legit reports of 2.5 or 3" come in and not from some slant sticker. lol If half the sub gets less than 1" and few if any crack 2" then it's a fail call. Exactly. We're wanting the models to be accurate within 0.05" intervals if we're looking at 1" as a threshold. To me, that's a within-24-hours level of precision and or even less lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 hour ago, dtk said: The entire conversation about ECMWF's model is pretty dumb. It is demonstrably better than any other model in the world and it is not that close....and I'm not just talking about 500 hPa AC scores. As for the discussion on resolution, it's possible that higher resolution may result in more "jumpiness" due to the error growth rates at higher frequency parts of the spectrum, which then cascades upscale. Nonlinearities and scale interactions become more important as we push the resolution envelope. ECMWF has been at their current horizontal resolution since March 2016. I'm not denying the factual data. But I also can't ignore the very real problems it's been having regionally in our domain lately. It's had huge variability (and accuracy) issues with every system in the last month. Now as showme said that could and probably is just a temporary issue with the current pattern giving it problems. But I can't deny what my eyes see. And you know I'm not a model basher or objective data denier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Was gonna note that lol. Looks like a bit of what the Euro was showing, but he's obviously decently happy that he may get a good snowfall Welp, guess he's going down with the ship on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, Cobalt said: DT's first call map: Looks just like the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm not denying the factual data. But I also can't ignore the very real problems it's been having regionally in our domain lately. It's had huge variability (and accuracy) issues with every system in the last month. Now as showme said that could and probably is just a temporary issue with the current pattern giving it problems. But I can't deny what my eyes see. And you know I'm not a model basher or objective data denier. Yeah, I'm not disputing people's perception of model behavior. In fact, I'm fascinated by some of what has been observed and want to understand it better. There is some follow up to this in the banter. Now, back to our sNOw.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: 3k is acceptable too. This should help wash some of the bad euro taste out of our mouths. If I can get that blob to my northwest to shift say 15 miles southeast I be very very happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The RGEM actually looked like it slowed down a little, but it cuts off precip early near the cities, similar to what the 12z GFS and Euro did. I think the reason for this can be seen in the 850 winds. There's a "U"-shaped bend to the winds at 850 mb, and as it slides past us the winds shift from the south to the west. Once they're coming from the west, it's game over. Look at the last frame here. You can see the 850s coming onshore south of us and north of us, but we get a dry westerly flow. And this is what the precip looks like at that time. If that loop shifts a little north, or slows down, I think it would help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Looks just like the 18z gfs. Do these get qualified as a Guess of low , medium or high "confidence" level ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 23 minutes ago, attml said: Huge score on the ensambles for everybod..... Oh sorry, almost everybody! At least Wes will be happy!!! :-) That 0 swath starts in VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 These are the type of storms that are not fun to even track for I-95. They are the oh look at all that snow to the west, now watch it disappear as it moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: These are the type of storms that are not fun to even track for I-95. They are the oh look at all that snow to the west, now watch it disappear as it moves east. Participation is optional Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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