cae Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The main differences between the guidance seem to be the speed of the front and the location of the jackpot zone. The better runs had extended events around here, whereas today's 12z Euro run sped up the front, giving us a 12-hour event, and shifted the jackpot zone 75 miles south. Double ouch. The mystery is why the GFS somehow is better for us even though it's somewhat faster with the trough. I suspect it's because the GFS somehow manages to hold on to the southerly low-level winds for longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I'm posting this for a laugh but here is the Deep Thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I'm all in on the GEPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: They better get the Euro fixed soon or it's going to cost the wx outlets who rely on it for subscribers a lot of money. it's funny how you think the Europeans give to snowflakes about the wx outlets. They have every right to tinker with the model if it benefits their domain. That's like Indonesia getting angry at NWS for bugging the GFS in the south Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 You know you're having a good time when Shreveport is getting more snow than mby for the second time this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ltrain said: I'm posting this for a laugh but here is the Deep Thunder. IBM says you make the call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ji said: i just put in a support ticket at ECMWF to address the issues its having in the DC area. Did they tell you to come back Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: Did they tell you to come back Wednesday? i asked to speak to a supervisor....hopefully she didnt used to work for Direct TV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Re: the Euro upgrade... I have no doubt that whatever they did, they did with the knowledge that it would have a knock-on effect on the model's capabilities in some far corner(s) of the globe. At that point, you need to make the decision as to whether to put that upgrade into production and accept the loss of functionality/capability in one domain in favor of another. They would have seen those knock-on effects in whatever regression testing they did prior to the release of the upgrade, and they made the business decision to move forward with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: it's funny how you think the Europeans give to snowflakes about the wx outlets. They have every right to tinker with the model if it benefits their domain. That's like Indonesia getting angry at NWS for bugging the GFS in the south Pacific. I didn't say they did. I was referring to the consequences of their product to distributors. If the Gfs becomes a superior model, a major draw for paying for wx info will be gone. The Gfs is headed that way imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, mitchnick said: I didn't say they did. I was referring to the consequences of their product to distributors. If the Gfs becomes a superior model, a major draw for paying for wx info will be gone. The Gfs is headed that way imho. its funny...the only reason people pay for weather models is the euro precip maps...you take that out and nobody would pay for a weather model site. Too much good free stuff out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The entire conversation about ECMWF's model is pretty dumb. It is demonstrably better than any other model in the world and it is not that close....and I'm not just talking about 500 hPa AC scores. As for the discussion on resolution, it's possible that higher resolution may result in more "jumpiness" due to the error growth rates at higher frequency parts of the spectrum, which then cascades upscale. Nonlinearities and scale interactions become more important as we push the resolution envelope. ECMWF has been at their current horizontal resolution since March 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 What we are seeing with the Euro could be nothing more then it having difficulty handling the current pattern we have seen over the last few weeks and nothing more. We have seen this in the past and I am sure we will see it in the future as well. Get a pattern flip and it would not be surprising to see the Euro revert back to its past King status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, dtk said: The entire conversation about ECMWF's model is pretty dumb. It is demonstrably better than any other model in the world and it is not that close....and I'm not just talking about 500 hPa AC scores. As for the discussion on resolution, it's possible that higher resolution may result in more "jumpiness" due to the error growth rates at higher frequency parts of the spectrum, which then cascades upscale. Nonlinearities and scale interactions become more important as we push the resolution envelope. ECMWF has been at their current horizontal resolution since March 2016. Well I mean verification scores are all fine and dandy but the bottom line is for our little piece of real estate on the globe, it’s been less than impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, T. August said: Well I mean verification scores are all fine and dandy but the bottom line is for our little piece of real estate on the globe, it’s been less than impressive. I'll take the in-depth case studies and quantitative stats for our region over anecdotal evidence on a weather board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, dtk said: I'll take the in-depth case studies and quantitative stats for our region over anecdotal evidence on a weather board. Maybe it’s just me but you always come off as pretty abrasive. “... conversation about ECMWF’s model is pretty dumb”. We get it you work in the field. And you prob know more than anyone here, honestly. But you don’t have to talk down to everyone you come in contact with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 RGEM ensemble goes all SREF-y on us. The Canadian suite has gone from the most bearish on this event to the most bullish, as the Euro has gone the other way. On average, I think the top globals have been telling about the same story for the last couple of days. With so many pieces in play, I think it's an especially good time to blend the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, T. August said: Maybe it’s just me but you always come off as pretty abrasive. “... conversation about ECMWF’s model is pretty dumb”. We get it you work in the field. And you prob know more than anyone here, honestly. But you don’t have to talk down to everyone you come in contact with. Sorry, I'll rephrase: The conversation is a bit silly and slightly misguided. My sincere apologies for offending you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The bottom line is the Euro for our particular area over the past however many weeks has been AWFUL this winter. It jumps from big events to nothing and back again. Whether it's done a great job in other locations is a worthwhile discussion and very possibly the case, but when it comes to our specific use for it, it most definitely is worth discussing if it is even useful at this point. It could certainly be this pattern is just not one it is handling well at all, but to base forecasts for this area on the Euro right now given how poor it is performing seems crazy. Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice......If it can start doing a better job on storms, I'll be willing to re-visit but it's a total waste right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, dtk said: I'll take the in-depth case studies and quantitative stats for our region over anecdotal evidence on a weather board. Thanks for chiming in, dtk! appreciate your thoughts on the models. as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12k looking much better imo...just talking precip panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, dtk said: Sorry, I'll rephrase: The conversation is a bit silly and slightly misguided. My sincere apologies for offending you. lol- yea, that works. Could be total coincidence but coming from a group of people who have labored over countless euro runs over a decade or longer are all noticing the same thing. Euro has had unusually large jumps inside of 72-96 hours this year. That can't be disputed. Why it's happening is a conversation that I'm far far from qualified to have but it's been an unusual year for the euro. Even the ensembles at very reasonable ranges have been prone to mislead instead of guide. It what it is. Doesn't change the ground truth that we suck at snow regardless of model output. On the flip side, the GFS's last upgrade was pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: The bottom line is the Euro for our particular area over the past however many weeks has been AWFUL this winter. It jumps from big events to nothing and back again. Whether it's done a great job in other locations is a worthwhile discussion and very possibly the case, but when it comes to our specific use for it, it most definitely is worth of discussing if it is even useful at this point. It could certainly be this pattern is just not one it is handling well at all, but to base forecasts for this area on the Euro right now given how poor it is performing seems crazy. Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice......If it can start doing a better job on storms, I'll be willing to re-visit but it's a total waste right now. It could also be because the GFS has improved as well (IIRC, it was upgraded recently?), but the thing is, for our region like you said, it's been pretty bad. Not just with storms though. It was the last to show torch for Christmas, it was the last to get rid of the 29th overrunning event, and it didn't do so good during the Dec 8-9 event either, but most guidance sucked for that as well. It's only real win was the Jan 4th storm, as it was the only model getting snow into DC consistently before other models caved, but it went too far with that too, showing high end advisory snow as the storm was going on, and we all know how that ended for DC. Could be pattern, could be bad luck, but it's gotten our hopes up multiple times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, dtk said: Sorry, I'll rephrase: The conversation is a bit silly and slightly misguided. My sincere apologies for offending you. Second burn in an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12km NAM looks like .1-.2 for DC and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: It could also be because the GFS has improved as well (IIRC, it was upgraded recently?), but the thing is, for our region like you said, it's been pretty bad. Not just with storms though. It was the last to show torch for Christmas, it was the last to get rid of the 29th overruning event, and it didn't do so good during the Dec 8-9 event either, but most guidance sucked for that as well. It's only real win was the Jan 4th storm, as it was the only guidance getting snow into DC, but it went too far with that too, showing high end advisory snow as the storm was going on, and we all know how that ended for DC. Could be pattern, could be bad luck, but it's gotten our hopes up multiple times. The GFS was "upgraded" in July (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/scn17-67gfsupgrade.htm), but honestly, the majority of the change was software infrastructure and there wasn't a lot of science contained therein. Most of the experimentation we had done showed generally neutral results. There were specific things that changed resulting from the introduction of a higher resolution land data set, such as max/min temps near urban areas, etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 NAM 12k is an acceptable event, 1-3 maybe more on the northern part of our sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3k is acceptable too. This should help wash some of the bad euro taste out of our mouths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 hours ago, Wonderdog said: Mountains steal our snow from the west and the coastal or lack thereof is too far east. Nothing new really. When are we going to see a storm develop in the GOM and move NE to give us a 7-10 inch snowstorm? That is what we need for a snowmaker and you just don't get a strong enough low that can charge into Arctic high pressure and survive in a Nina and especially this nina phase jobs and most anything else doesn't work around D.C. I said it in September and will say it again, doubt DCA get more than 4" in any single event. Models are not predictive of weather for this region, they are suggestive of a variety of outcomes which covers all the bases so that come funding time they can point to something that did actually verify and thus get the funding experienced mid Atlantic area seasoned forecasters are far better at longer term events as well as shorter term 1-3 day events. The constant lament is "without models we would not know a 7 day event is looming". That event is not looming, it's merely one of 6-10 possible outcomes and it may be the one out of ten that confirms but working off if 10% accuracy rate won't get you much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Total qpf from the last 5 Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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