Jan 16/17 light snow event.

[psuhoffman]

This does fit what JI wakes up screaming to in the middle of the night though. 

[Amped]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

One of the problems we go through with every event that derails expectations every single time is some model or a couple models will almost ALWAYS throw out an outlying max potential run and then that become the new "middle ground". If you toss the 2 biggest and 2 smallest solutions and average the rest of the model suite then it's usually close to reality every time. This only applies to inside of 3 days. Beyond that accuracy drops off too much and too much can change. People down in the dumps because the euro and JMA spit out top end outlying scenarios is just bad practice in this hobby. When 80% of the models show a big hit and then it goes poof....yea, that sucks. But for what we've been dealt with so far this year we've actually done better than expected from the 72 hour mark. 

The problem is people interpret every good outlier run as a trend.  Of course if you can forecast off a trend, all of us model watchers weenies would be pro mets.  Disappointed, but can't say I'm surprised.

[Wonderdog]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This does fit what JI wakes up screaming to in the middle of the night though. 

Mountains steal our snow from the west and the coastal or lack thereof is too far east. Nothing new really. When are we going to see a storm develop in the GOM and move NE to give us a 7-10 inch snowstorm?

[Bob Chill]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I think we all wake up in a cold sweat to this image, my friend.

It’ll be interesting to see what the EPS does but just simply blending the guidance puts us in position for a decent event relative to what we’ve seen so far this winter. I’m cautiously optimistic.

EPS will no doubt look just like the op at this lead. And if 0z tonight bumps it up again the eps will follow. I do think the euro is too dry this run but we'll see how it goes. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

Mountains steal our snow from the west and the coastal or lack thereof is too far east. Nothing new really. When are we going to see a storm develop in the GOM and move NE to give us a 7-10 inch snowstorm?

Next Nino lol.

But in all seriousness, though rare, when those do happen in a Nina lately they tend to be later. 1999 & 2009 being examples. So there is hope. 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Mountains steal our snow from the west and the coastal or lack thereof is too far east. Nothing new really. When are we going to see a storm develop in the GOM and move NE to give us a 7-10 inch snowstorm?

That would need to be more of an El Nino year I think, although we did just miss out last week with the bomb. A bit further West and we would have gotten 15 inches .

Last winter same thing once again,  Rehoboth and the beaches getting decent snow. I still think there is time for a significant event next month,  and maybe even in March.     

 

 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Next Nino lol.

But in all seriousness, though rare, when those do happen in a Nina lately they tend to be later. 1999 & 2009 being examples. So there is hope. 

i hope people arent counting on ratios. I dont care if the ratio is 50:1...if its snowing one flake every 3 minutes..its not going to add up

[Eskimo Joe]

Pretty legit flizzard here in Reisterstown.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Pretty legit flizzard here in Reisterstown.

Euro showed nothing at all west of the bay. BUST. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS will no doubt look just like the op at this lead. And if 0z tonight bumps it up again the eps will follow. I do think the euro is too dry this run but we'll see how it goes. 

You really giving it much weight?  I know it's rep at this range and all but it's been so bad. It had that one uber wet run right at gametime Jan 4 when it was obvious dry was the way to go. That was 0 hour forecast lol. At this point, until it gets its head on straight, we would be better off totally ignoring it like we do other garbage like the Dgex cras jma navgem. It's just adding noise. 

That said I'm not saying it can't be right. Other guidance have had dry runs lately too. But the euro itself isn't reliable right now to add anything of value imo. 

ETA:  all the guidance is struggling honestly but it's been so bad it's making the others look great by comparison. 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro showed nothing at all west of the bay. BUST. 

If you loop the LWX radar, you can see some faint returns coming off the Bay:  http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-N0Q-1-6

This is a case where the TBWI and TADW radars will help you more than the NEXRAD.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

You really giving it much weight?  I know it's rep at this range and all but it's been so bad. It had that one uber wet run right at gametime Jan 4 when it was obvious dry was the way to go. That was 0 hour forecast lol. At this point, until it gets its head on straight, we would be better off totally ignoring it like we do other garbage like the Dgex cras jma navgem. It's just adding noise. 

That said I'm not saying it can't be right. Other guidance have had dry runs lately too. But the euro itself isn't reliable right now to add anything of value imo. 

I won't totally ignore it. The run right before it went off the rails with the big coastal ended up being the most accurate for folks west of the bay except for SoMD where it was too light. This is a touchy setup so I'd say anything from the euro to the CMC is possible. 

[Interstate]

31 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

LOL

That actually seem about right for this winter

[87storms]

The 12z euro reminds me of that wasp sting I got over the summer.

[Eskimo Joe]

WWA out from I-70 north:  https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=18406513

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I won't totally ignore it. The run right before it went off the rails with the big coastal ended up being the most accurate for folks west of the bay except for SoMD where it was too light. This is a touchy setup so I'd say anything from the euro to the CMC is possible. 

Yes I'm not sold we won't get totally skunked and I'm also not sold we don't get banded and get 3-4". Most of the guidance is converging on my option 2 (enhancement as the first wave develops ahead of the trough) only it's focusing the banding a bit NW of the 95 corridor. Pa seems to really be the consensus winner from that. But that's touchy. A shift 30 miles and a lot of people are happy. A shift the other way and we're skunked. Those kind of banding features are difficult to pin. There are lots of examples where the models had that kind of feature somewhere and it ended up 30 miles away at game time. 

But the problem specific to the euro is because it's not only busting a lot but also jumping from one extreme to another run to run and even at short range, how do you know when it's right/crazy. It's not that it can't be right. Just as a forecaster its behavior the last month makes me feel like for my sanity it's better to toss it and go with a blend of all other reliable guidance. That could blow up in my face but given it's record lately using the euro is more likely to make me look silly. 

[87storms]

It sort of highlights what usedtobe was saying in that we need to be as close to that upper low as possible. So we may not be completely out yet as there’s definitely some precip nearby but it appears we need a north shift ASAP.

[Jandurin]

Prefer a North shift to a South shift

[Scraff]

Don’t worry. 18z GFS will save us all. 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, 87storms said:

It sort of highlights what usedtobe was saying in that we need to be as close to that upper low as possible. So we may not be completely out yet as there’s definitely some precip nearby but it appears we need a north shift ASAP.

 

4 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

Prefer a North shift to a South shift

Where we are now the rgem progression is the way to root imo. And that is actually just south with the enhanced banding to our north. The upper low stuff in VA keeps getting more pathetic every run. I think in the end the real show is going to be the banding that sets up along the front and gets enhanced as the wave that eventually clobbers New England develops to our east. If we miss that I think we're in trouble. The upper low enhanced stuff is going the wrong way on all guidance. 

Location matters of course. If you live much more then 20 miles south of D.C. rooting for the upper low is your only hope.  From D.C. North id pull for a south trend of the frontal banding. 

[stormy]

39 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Mountains steal our snow from the west and the coastal or lack thereof is too far east. Nothing new really. When are we going to see a storm develop in the GOM and move NE to give us a 7-10 inch snowstorm?

In about 3 weeks.

[Bob Chill]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes I'm not sold we won't get totally skunked and I'm also not sold we don't get banded and get 3-4". Most of the guidance is converging on my option 2 (enhancement as the first wave develops ahead of the trough) only it's focusing the banding a bit NW of the 95 corridor. Pa seems to really be the consensus winner from that. But that's touchy. A shift 30 miles and a lot of people are happy. A shift the other way and we're skunked. Those kind of banding features are difficult to pin. There are lots of examples where the models had that kind of feature somewhere and it ended up 30 miles away at game time. 

But the problem specific to the euro is because it's not only busting a lot but also jumping from one extreme to another run to run and even at short range, how do you know when it's right/crazy. It's not that it can't be right. Just as a forecaster its behavior the last month makes me feel like for my sanity it's better to toss it and go with a blend of all other reliable guidance. That could blow up in my face but given it's record lately using the euro is more likely to make me look silly. 

While still anecdotal...there's some very compelling evidence that whatever "upgrade" was done to the euro that it has affected it's med range skill around here specifically. Euro used to shift in calculated or even graceful moves towards the correct solution. We basically knew to rarely expect the euro to have a large run over run shift inside of d4 or so. Now it's swing for the fences one run and then striking out the next. Something has clearly happened and not in a good way. 

[clueless]

Wow.  Someone have a direct line to the Europeans?  If I were in the biz I’d be very pissed.  

Half-inch or bust IMBY.  

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

While still anecdotal...there's some very compelling evidence that whatever "upgrade" was done to the euro that it has affected it's med range skill around here specifically. Euro used to shift in calculated or even graceful moves towards the correct solution. We basically knew to rarely expect the euro to have a large run over run shift inside of d4 or so. Now it's swing for the fences one run and then striking out the next. Something has clearly happened and not in a good way. 

Just thinking out loud but higher resolution if not properly compensated for in the programming could cause that perhaps. More details but if some of those are wrong it can go off on a tangent quick. Like with complicated electronics more stuff to go wrong. 

Why that would impact us more could be the way some of the intricate meso scale interactions between the mountains and ocean in our area impact our weather. Regionally too east coast cyclogenesus can be tricker then the meso scale interactions that influence synoptic scale storms in other regions. 

[smokeybandit]

141 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

... Potential winter commuting hazard for the Baltimore/Washington 
Metro areas Wednesday morning... 

There is a potential for hazardous commuting conditions for the 
Wednesday morning commute. A period of snow is expected to develop 
Tuesday night and continue into Wednesday morning across the 
Baltimore/Washington Metro areas with the potential of one to two 
inches of snowfall accumulation on area roads.

If this threat does materialize during the Wednesday morning rush-
hour, many roads could quickly turn icy. This could lead to 
dangerous traveling conditions, multiple accidents, and extensive 
delays.

If commuting Wednesday morning, be aware of the possibility of 
significant travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra 
travel time, and consider using public transportation and telework 
options.

Stay tuned for updates on this potential winter weather episode.

[mitchnick]

They better get the Euro fixed soon or it's going to cost the wx outlets who rely on it for subscribers a lot of money. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

They better get the Euro fixed soon or it's going to cost the wx outlets who rely on it for subscribers a lot of money. 

There's nothing wrong with it.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

There's nothing wrong with it.

I should have limited it to our area, because there is a problem here.

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I should have limited it to our area, because there is a problem here.

i just put in a support ticket at ECMWF to address the issues its having in the DC area.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I should have limited it to our area, because there is a problem here.

The resolution idea kind of makes sense.  When you have mesoscale details to work with, wouldn't you expect the variability from the globals as the last 24 hours has shown?  That's why I mentioned in banter that 0z could reel people back in.  The meso models still have a few runs before improving output as far as verification goes imo.  My bar is set for just under 1/2" around here.