BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs resolution sucks and the event is light. I'm not saying I think fail isn't on the table but the gefs is not known for skill with light events. Our fate will prob be determined by the mesos tomorrow. Globals will broad brush and meso's will drill down. At least that's what I've been told. Lol. Can't wait for hrrr runs so we can live and die every 60 mins. Ensemble guidance is still the best we have at day 3.5 imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Ensemble guidance is still the bet we have at day 3.5 imo. We're inside of 72 hours now. Global ops should be weighted the heaviest. Tomorrow is when the mesos can be taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: We're inside of 72 hours now. Global ops should be weighted the heaviest. Tomorrow is when the mesos can be taken seriously. Are we though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I'd assume this would be a good look from the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Are we though? Onset is. But if a coastal gets going then no, still d3+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Onset is. But if a coastal gets going then no, still d3+ Exactly what I was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Euro is quite a bit slower than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Euro is a solid 1-3" again pretty much everywhere but man, very close to coastal enhancement. An inch more amp and we get an extra 2"+ of snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Euro is a solid 1-3" again pretty much everywhere but man, very close to coastal enhancement. An inch more amp and we get an extra 2"+ of snow.... plenty of time! I hate the 1-3 thing. 6-8 is one thing but there is a huge difference between 1 and 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Ugh I was just making a point what they shownot trying to start a debate on usefulness. For the record I wasn't worried about the finer details with the frontal wave. The ensembles will suck as bob said. But I was concerned a bit that a cluster of members dry the front out totally because they develop a wave to our south that doesn't do us any good. That's what I outlined in my "how we get screwed" option. That option is still on the table that's all I was trying to say. Using the gefs for qpf at this point is a bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, Ji said: plenty of time! I hate the 1-3 thing. 6-8 is one thing but there is a huge difference between 1 and 3 Normal people would disagree lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Not sure how the odds are with the coastal enhancement but it's really close.... need to collectively will the precip max 75 miles north.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Euro looks way more interesting at H5 compared to yesterday’s 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Slight improvement on euro. It's still holding onto the idea of some coastal enhancement and it got the really good stuff a little closer. Minor event but with upside still on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Euro looks way more interesting at H5 compared to yesterday’s 12z. Man, it's close to max potential but still super dicey. We're not far from a good hit and conversely not far from a precip robbing miss to the south... Euro is right in between all 3 Psu scenarios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not sure how the odds are with the coastal enhancement but it's really close.... need to collectively will the precip max 75 miles north.... Central VA. jackpot , no way. Bob, why is this not swinging Northeast, the tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 surface lows, one over LI at 72, the 2nd off the del marva at 96. Very odd setup. Would be better for us if the high weren't so far south at 96hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, frd said: Central VA. jackpot , no way. Bob, why is this not swinging Northeast, the tilt. Yea, still progressive enough to keep from gaining latitude when it matters out of the equation. Not mad at the run though. Still in the game for a nice light event and enough interesting stuff to discuss maxing out potential. I'm skeptical of that but interested of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, Amped said: 2 surface lows, one over LI at 72, the 2nd off the del marva at 96. Very odd setup. Would be better for us if the high weren't so far south at 96hrs. when looking at the nam or gfs yesterday it looked like there might have been a weak surface low popping up around va/nc border, though i could be wrong. that would help us avoid the downsloping, coastal transfer effect we see here that causes those snow holes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 H7 closes off smack dab in the middle of VA at hr90. Move that 50 miles north please.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 So we want the trough to continue to slow down and dig more to get the coastal enhancement closer to the coast and further north? Noticed that most of the globals have slowed the trough down a bit, hence more coastal involvement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: when looking at the nam or gfs yesterday it looked like there might have been a weak surface low popping up around va/nc border, though i could be wrong. that would help us avoid the downsloping, coastal transfer effect we see here that causes those snow holes. It's a weird hybrid progression of the euro. Mid and upper level support happens just in time for enhancement as the front moves through. Slp too far away for true coastal stuff but there's enough moisture overhead for upper level support to add some lift. Cva is ground zero. That moving north a bit is within the realm. Late development is also in the realm so it's touchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Painful, but it could be worse. As in, 10 miles south of Boston. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Man, it's close to max potential but still super dicey. We're not far from a good hit and conversely not far from a precip robbing miss to the south... Euro is right in between all 3 Psu scenarios It's a good run as it would give most of us at least a couple of inches. The tilt still hurts us some but I think the odds of no snow are pretty small unless you call a dusting a miss. If I remember right all the euro members from last night gave us at least a dusting. This Euro run has a better looking 500 than that and therefore spits out a little more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, still progressive enough to keep from gaining latitude when it matters out of the equation. Not mad at the run though. Still in the game for a nice light event and enough interesting stuff to discuss maxing out potential. I'm skeptical of that but interested of course. Thanks Bob, I admit I was a bit bummed but the lowering snowfall in my neck of the woods up here in Delaware, I am just below the C&D Canal. Darn Dewey, and Reboboth taking all my snow this year. Maybe we get the jog North :-) still time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Mitch, check this out. You can see why cva gets a mini fluff bomb. 0z run wasn't even close to closing off h7. This is really close to a mini fluff bomb over our yards... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 12z JMA get's .2" region wide and the 12z ICON increased precip region wide as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: H7 closes off smack dab in the middle of VA at hr90. Move that 50 miles north please.... Unfortunately we got a shred factory incoming from Mich that probably won't let the low close off if it's further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: H7 closes off smack dab in the middle of VA at hr90. Move that 50 miles north please.... Normally, you want the low in that location but with no high to the north we're not gonna get any cold conveyor belt going so we need it a tad north unless we can change the tilt a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, usedtobe said: Normally, you want the low in that location but with no high to the north we're not gonna get any cold conveyor belt going so we need it a tad north unless we can change the tilt a bit and spread a little better warm advection over us. It's very dicey. Cva jackpots becuase of close proximity to good upper level support. Which was a marked improvement fron 0z. The localized nature of the setup is a bit of a bummer for the reasons you just pointed out. I'm actually a bit surprised with the run. It's maximizing what's available but not really close to getting broad coverage to the north. Interesting take on the event without much support. Could be the euro's amp tendencies at play. If it still looks similar in 24 hours it will be more believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.