clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 And of course the band to my west goes poof 10 miles from my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, clskinsfan said: And of course the band to my west goes poof 10 miles from my house. We gotta will this thing to get you guys a few inches tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 30 minutes ago, Ji said: basically you had the GGEM and JMA caving to the 12z euro...and then the 00z euro comes out and says, why the hell are you caving to me....i cant forecast Wonder if the better data assimilation and initialization had the euro seeing something in the atmosphere ahead of those crappier models then they saw the same wrong thing 12 hours later. Both got fooled by the same wrong conclusion from the same data only 12 hours apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 16 minutes ago, PDIII said: We will be fighting sun angle from here on out. It never snows in February or march here so it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yo NAM where’s my snow?? Electronic nearby road sign on I-95 says "Salting operations under way". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Herb@MAWS said: Electronic nearby road sign on I-95 says "Salting operations under way". Was just about to post that 95 is freshly brined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 looks like a couple of small flakes now falling in Glen Burnie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 One of the problems we go through with every event that derails expectations every single time is some model or a couple models will almost ALWAYS throw out an outlying max potential run and then that become the new "middle ground". If you toss the 2 biggest and 2 smallest solutions and average the rest of the model suite then it's usually close to reality every time. This only applies to inside of 3 days. Beyond that accuracy drops off too much and too much can change. People down in the dumps because the euro and JMA spit out top end outlying scenarios is just bad practice in this hobby. When 80% of the models show a big hit and then it goes poof....yea, that sucks. But for what we've been dealt with so far this year we've actually done better than expected from the 72 hour mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: There's 2 things to look for. A "backwards bend" of isobars and cyclonic flow. This feature has both and low pressure off the coast feeding it. It's an extension of the low off the coast providing moisture transport and lift. Precip is typically isolated to a small area. This has "overachiever" written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Sun out in Herndon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Heh, euro is hideous. This should be a fun couple hours here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Euro says next lol what useless garbage they turned it into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 99.5% of the sky is cloud covered except where the sun is shining in Gainesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Heh, euro is hideous. This should be a fun couple hours here. Come on, PA and NE does great. HM is the best. That's all there is to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, mitchnick said: Come on, PA and NE does great. HM is the best. That's all there is to it. Euro went from the wettest to driest in 2 runs. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Euro went from the wettest to driest in 2 runs. lol It is useless at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, euro is hideous. This should be a fun couple hours here. You realize over the last 7 runs it's had the 3 snowiest and by a huge factor, 3 meh runs, and the 1 single worst run. I know I keep saying it but it's not an exaggeration the thing is totally useless for making a forecast right now. Lost all cred. But that won't stop people from throwing out the good vibes by improvement on all the other guidance today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Come on, PA and NE does great. HM is the best. That's all there is to it. Eastern half of NC does pretty well too. Don't leave those guys out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Wonder if the better data assimilation and initialization had the euro seeing something in the atmosphere ahead of those crappier models then they saw the same wrong thing 12 hours later. Both got fooled by the same wrong conclusion from the same data only 12 hours apart. you know when they grade the euro and other models, they dont really grade it based on how it does in washington DC.....but if you are someone using the models to help forecast, you would probably say the models have come along way but there is a really long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Pixie dust falling here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: LOL The snow hole is even shaped like a steaming pile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Wow woof. Let’s go king GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: Wow woof. Let’s go king GFS. Yea, if we just blend north american guidance we're in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: LOL isnt this the same model that upped the liquid to .30 to .40 right before the blizzard of 2018? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Wow woof. Let’s go king GFS. DT , Ryan Maue and JB better all bow to the GFS. Go USA !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Well, if nothing else, this confirms for me that the Euro is to be totally ignored until it can prove itself again. So at least this non-event is going to accomplish something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: Wow woof. Let’s go king GFS. Not sure if anyone made mention of it, because it still looked pretty good for places NW, but the GFS went hella dry in one run, from 0z to 12z today, for places s and e of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 hours ago, WVclimo said: 12Z GFS is also 0.17" of QPF, so 24 hours out there seems to be a pretty good consensus for a couple of inches here tomorrow. Now watch Euro come in with 0.04" Nailed it ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Is this year still considered to be a weak La Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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