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Jan 16/17 light snow event.


clskinsfan

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this will be the remembered as the winter where we couldnt get any threats...nobody could make any maps...we didnt get any warnings or watches.....just a non winter in my books. Its like the warm version of 01-02. We cant seem to get to that next level and winter is starting to wind down

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Just now, MD Snow said:

6z sucked too...

what really sucked was i thought we were onto something. First was the CMC...and then the JMA went nuclear...and the euro came in and just crashed the entire party like usual when alot of us were were expecting and improvement. The usual 1 step forward 9 steps back

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

this will be the remembered as the winter where we couldnt get any threats...nobody could make any maps...we didnt get any warnings or watches.....just a non winter in my books. Its like the warm version of 01-02. We cant seem to get to that next level and winter is starting to wind down

basically you had the GGEM and JMA caving to the 12z euro...and then the 00z euro comes out and says, why the hell are you caving to me....i cant forecast

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

what really sucked was i thought we were onto something. First was the CMC...and then the JMA went nuclear...and the euro came in and just crashed the entire party like usual when alot of us were were expecting and improvement. The usual 1 step forward 9 steps back

 

1 minute ago, Ji said:

basically you had the GGEM and JMA caving to the 12z euro...and then the 00z euro comes out and says, why the hell are you caving to me....i cant forecast

uh boy.....JI's talking to himself now

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

True but the surface, mid, and upper level flow is out of the south or SW as the precip moves through. If it was out of the west or NW then yea, winchester and leesburg are gettin holed. 

I know I'm late here but a SW flow at the surface still downslopes pretty badly east of the blue ridge. Actually due to that trajectory the effects could be more severe but not as far reaching. The flow is actually off the higher peaks in central VA but because it's a longer fetch to us more chance for precip to redevelop. But places just east of the ridges not so much. I experienced this for years in state college pa. 

Now your right that with a SW flow system they do ok but that's because a lot of times there is just enough of a surface wave to create just enough easterly component to the wind so that the downslope is muted. But in this case if there is no surface system at all during our snow (the one that finally develops is way too east) and the surface flow is straight off the 3000+ Alleghany and  blue ridge mountains then there will be a shadow. 

That doesn't mean the nam is right. It could be missing the wind trajectory a fraction and that's all the difference. But I do see what's it's doing and it's not unfeasable. 

Btw it does even out. The same factor is why those same places get crushed when there is a coastal hugger and they get an easterly fetch like Jan 96, the first 2 2009/2010 storms and 2016. And do well in plenty of events we would rather forget like march 2013. But it does mean they are susceptible to dry patches when we lack a southern stream and are reliant on northern stream stuff. Nickel and dime doesn't work for them as well. So they are a boom/bust area. In a good year with a stj they can clean up. In a bad year it can be really bad. But all it takes is one coast hugger where 95 goes to rain and they get 12" and they jump on top. But this general Nina pattern we've been stuck in for 2 years is their worst nightmare. 

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21 minutes ago, Ji said:

this will be the remembered as the winter where we couldnt get any threats...nobody could make any maps...we didnt get any warnings or watches.....just a non winter in my books. Its like the warm version of 01-02. We cant seem to get to that next level and winter is starting to wind down

We will be fighting sun angle from here on out.

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