cae Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Where are you getting the (new and improved)? GFS from? Would like the link if it is available for public consumption. Thanks. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gmanikin/fv3gfs/fv3images.html On that page they also mention that there is also a GFS/FV3 plume comparison page, but the link is dead. I'm not sure if it's gone or just moved somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I think me and Leesburg 04 will be sitting this one outSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Yes it is a little bit strange to see the low deck of clouds moving in currently. The edge is just getting to my location in Prince William County. Very cool looking. Hopefully flakes fly later this far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I've noticed the wet bias too. Still not done for your area @ hr48. Slowed everything down a little (which can only help) Looks like it has the dry area to the SE of here vs. directly over Ji's house on the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Add the RGEM to the closed h5 crew. Still plenty of + tilt and progressive but this is only hr48 so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: I think me and Leesburg 04 will be sitting this one out Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk I'm actually in Landsdowne now so I might get 4 more flakes than you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I've noticed the wet bias too. Still not done for your area @ hr48. Slowed everything down a little (which can only help) Getting close to a baroclinic leaf look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Another personal observation but the cloud deck has rapidly filled in overhead and the cloud structure is indicative of upper level support for lift induced by the inverted trough. Again this is to the north and west of the DC/Balt corridor so this can only be a positive for your snow chances south and east of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 It's a small but undeniable shift that the GFS sharpened things up with the trough and backed flow a touch (boob). Better run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I think what we are starting to see is little changes at h5 run to run that are beginning to start making some changes at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 38 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Just an observation from my neck of the woods but it may bode well for those to my south and east for possible inverted trough snows. Noticed I was getting a stench from the paper mill to my E/SE which didn't make sense considering the surface winds are coming gently from the north at this time. But I have the Utz factory just to my north and noticed from the steam that just above the surface (no more then 25-30 feet above the ground) that we were actually seeing a pretty brisk flow from the east and the odor was mixing down. Might signify that there may be a little more oomph involved with the inverted trough if I am seeing it's effects up here already. Used to live in New Salem...that stench was AWFUL. You could tell it was going to start precipitating within 12 hours when it would hang low to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's a small but undeniable shift that the GFS sharpened things up with the trough and backed flow a touch (boob). Better run for sure. Yeah I was going to say, this is the best the GFS has looked at the H5 in awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: I think what we are starting to see is little changes at h5 run to run that are beginning to start making some changes at the surface. Still not enough for a bigger option but a step towards maximizing the frontal snow. Trend today has been to slow/amplify. GFS verbatim is an ok run for all of us. Eastern shore gets the short end but they'll end up getting hit with the coastal so there's that...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's a small but undeniable shift that the GFS sharpened things up with the trough and backed flow a touch (boob). Better run for sure. Trying to dig that trough a bit more. Good move for jackpotville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 You guys will love the RGEM extended... I guess it's the same as the CMC run. Both pretty generous... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 21 minutes ago, WVclimo said: 12Z RGEM is 0.37" liquid, 12k NAM is 0.27", 3k NAM is 0.17". 12Z GFS is also 0.17" of QPF, so 24 hours out there seems to be a pretty good consensus for a couple of inches here tomorrow. Now watch Euro come in with 0.04" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 CMC refusing to give up on the closed ull idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Oh Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 CMC, like the RGEM, is slower in onset. Snow doesn’t leave the metro areas until after 0Z Thursday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Looks like 1/2" in bethany already. lol https://www.townofbethanybeach.com/365/Beach-Cams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, mappy said: Oh Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Used to live in New Salem...that stench was AWFUL. You could tell it was going to start precipitating within 12 hours when it would hang low to the ground.That was the paper mill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Glad to see the GFS put us westerners in the game finally. I think Bob's 1-3 call is pretty safe at this point for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12z ICON closes off as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looks like 1/2" in bethany already. lol https://www.townofbethanybeach.com/365/Beach-Cams And there's nothing on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Glad to see the GFS put us westerners in the game finally. I think Bob's 1-3 call is pretty safe at this point for everyone. Just hug the CMC. Over .3 for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You guys will love the RGEM extended... I guess it's the same as the CMC run. Both pretty generous... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Yeah, from 49 hours on that site shows the GGEM. To make it even more confusing, at 06z and 18z they show the 06z and 18z RGEM for the first 48 hours, then the 00z and 12z GGEM for 49-120. The extended RGEM has been pretty consistent though. Below are the last three runs. I've removed most of today's light snow from the below plots. These extended runs should be taken with a big grain of salt, but we're getting close to the point where we're in the RGEM's 48-hour window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Here's one for the western folks...not too shabby. GFS was moving this direction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's one for the western folks...not too shabby. GFS was moving this direction... That’s what I’m really pulling for. Area wide 2-4 that actually sticks would do wonders for morale. Also, it’s REALLY weird that the GEM is more reliable than the euro at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The beatings will continue until morale improves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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