CAPE Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, cae said: High-res RGEM hasn't shown anything yet. We'll see what it says at 12z, but could be an interesting test to see how it does. Yeah the RGEM and its smarter sibling HODOR have not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: I'm not buying the Nams depiction of the ridges stealing the show. I'll prob go down with the ship on this but this isn't the type of event where you see a big lee shadow like what the nams are showing. At least in my mind I see it that way. Some areas are impacted by the mountains' rain/snow shadow more than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Been in Leesburg for the most part since 04...trust me if this stuff is coming from a W - E trajectory...blah. And yes Ji I know about that one time in band camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Some areas are impacted by the mountains' rain/snow shadow more than others. True but the surface, mid, and upper level flow is out of the south or SW as the precip moves through. If it was out of the west or NW then yea, winchester and leesburg are gettin holed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Mitch approves. I'd consider it a win at least. D@mn right it's a win. Like I said, my bar is two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: A lot of folks know this but we throw around the term IVT or inverted trough a lot. Here's what they look like. This is a weak one but the principle is always the same. There's a "ridge like" bend or "bending back" of the surface pressure isobars off the delmarva. Basically the opposite of what a trough looks like and that's why it's called "inverted". This bend of lower pressure to the W or NW can generate precipitation. Sometimes fairly intense over a small area. Not the case on the panel below but it's the same mechanism. Departing lows interacting with approaching troughs can sometimes jackpot a small area with solid snow or rain. Whenever you see the term inverted trough around here look as surface panels and they will become obvious. Thanks for explanation. I was looking at the surface this morning with my weenie glasses on the hrrr to see if the ivt might somehow slow things down to our west but not sure if there's a relationship. eta: I was only looking at the hrrr because it's a now model and wanted to see surface current pressure depictions compared to previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, Interstate said: Yeah but that is from both events... It is showing an inch of snow today. Believe me, I hope it is right OK? Its still more than 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: True but the surface, mid, and upper level flow is out of the south or SW as the precip moves through. If it was out of the west or NW then yea, winchester and leesburg are gettin holed. There is a time the flow becomes westerly later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Precip hitting the ground in Bethany. IVT FTMFW! lol http://www.beachcamsusa.com/de/bethany-beach/bethany-beach-webcam-south-surf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: OK? Its still more than 06z run. Yes... I am just saying getting an inch today would be very dicey IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Surprised no one mentioned it but the 12K is closing off the 500 mb through our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, Interstate said: Yes... I am just saying getting an inch today would be very dicey IMO the 3K doesn't show that IMBY for today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Surprised no one mentioned it but the 12K is closing off the 500 mb through our region. just saw that....opens back up, but hey....6hrs is better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah the RGEM and its smarter sibling HODOR have not yet. RGEM has shown something, and shows it again at 12z. Looks like it's at least partially right, based on the obs out of Bethany. The 00z HRDPS really had nothing for anyone in our region today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Surprised no one mentioned it but the 12K is closing off the 500 mb through our region. Because it does it after the precip is gone. Positive tilt acts as a kicker. A step in the right direction or potential killer if it kicks everything out faster than shown now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just an observation from my neck of the woods but it may bode well for those to my south and east for possible inverted trough snows. Noticed I was getting a stench from the paper mill to my E/SE which didn't make sense considering the surface winds are coming gently from the north at this time. But I have the Utz factory just to my north and noticed from the steam that just above the surface (no more then 25-30 feet above the ground) that we were actually seeing a pretty brisk flow from the east and the odor was mixing down. Might signify that there may be a little more oomph involved with the inverted trough if I am seeing it's effects up here already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 23 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Just an observation from my neck of the woods but it may bode well for those to my south and east for possible inverted trough snows. Noticed I was getting a stench from the paper mill to my E/SE which didn't make sense considering the surface winds are coming gently from the north at this time. But I have the Utz factory just to my north and noticed from the steam that just above the surface (no more then 25-30 feet above the ground) that we were actually seeing a pretty brisk flow from the east and the odor was mixing down. Might signify that there may be a little more oomph involved with the inverted trough if I am seeing it's effects up here already. Or Utz doesn't make potato chips like they used to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Just an observation from my neck of the woods but it may bode well for those to my south and east for possible inverted trough snows. Noticed I was getting a stench from the paper mill to my E/SE which didn't make sense considering the surface winds are coming gently from the north at this time. But I have the Utz factory just to my north and noticed from the steam that just above the surface (no more then 25-30 feet above the ground) that we were actually seeing a pretty brisk flow from the east and the odor was mixing down. Might signify that there may be a little more oomph involved with the inverted trough if I am seeing it's effects up here already. I'm in Western AA county. I had to do a second look when I noticed clouds streaming in from the SE. I thought it was weird since it's so cold. Looks like a warm summer morning type sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Because it does it after the precip is gone. Positive tilt acts as a kicker. A step in the right direction or potential killer if it kicks everything out faster than shown now. Yeah, at this point it is too progressive. But we are talking at 60 hours on the NAM where it is well outside of it's comfort zone. But from what I see at this point it is somewhat promising for future runs. WE are now seeing a closed 500 low, though a little to late for my liking, positioned in a very favorable spot for possible capturing and/or influencing a coastal enough to impact our region. And as far as it's progressive nature we are seeing an improvement there as well as the trough is less positive tilted from the previous run. Now if we can see these trends continue I would not be surprised that we have a NAMing incoming on a future run. Whether it would actually verify would be another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, dailylurker said: I'm in Western AA county. I had to do a second look when I noticed clouds streaming in from the SE. I thought it was weird since it's so cold. Looks like a warm summer morning type sky. Its been gray and overcast here all morning. With the cold temps it does have the look and feel of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 16 minutes ago, mappy said: the 3K doesn't show that IMBY for today... This is the 3K before the 2nd event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 RGEM is still a solid 2 inches out this way. It isnt budging at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 RGEM very acceptable again... Neat IVT feature tucked into the apps down in SC. Prob doesn't mean jack here but it looks cool. Front is slow and flow backed a little from the previous run so that's not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Last night's 00z GFS on left, 00z FV3 (which is still in development and expected to eventually replace the GFS) on right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, cae said: Last night's 00z GFS on left, 00z FV3 (which is still in development and expected to eventually replace the GFS) on right. Good agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Or Utz doesn't make potato chips like they used too! My father-in-law would have a fit if he heard you even suggest that. 2 minutes ago, cae said: Last night's 00z GFS on left, 00z FV3 (which is still in development and expected to eventually replace the GFS) on right. Where are you getting the (new and improved)? GFS from? Would like the link if it is available for public consumption. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: This is the 3K before the 2nd event still not 1" IMBY (close ~.08" precip) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM is still a solid 2 inches out this way. It isnt budging at all. Best hit of this morning's models for my yard. 12Z RGEM is 0.37" liquid, 12k NAM is 0.27", 3k NAM is 0.17". Kuchera is close to 5" here on the RGEM with nearly 24 hours of snow falling. It has run wet in this area for most of the small events the past several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 And we now have the 3K NAM closing off 500 mb as well. In a favorable spot as well for our local though it too is a little to late and progressive as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, WVclimo said: Best hit of this morning's models for my yard. 12Z RGEM is 0.37" liquid, 12k NAM is 0.27", 3k NAM is 0.17". Kuchera is close to 5" here on the RGEM with nearly 24 hours of snow falling. It has run wet in this area for most of the small events the past several weeks. I've noticed the wet bias too. Still not done for your area @ hr48. Slowed everything down a little (which can only help) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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