mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Well the 3K is dry as a bone out here. Not a single flake. Of course you guys to the east get an inch out of it though. That's 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, mappy said: you're my favorite, you know that we need a Bob Chill day where we take him to a MD football game and get hammered after they lose by 50 points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Lowershoresadness said: we need a Bob Chill day where we take him to a MD football game and get hammered after they lose by 50 points my ma has season tickets, ill make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, mappy said: my ma has season tickets, ill make it happen. giddy up!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said: we need a Bob Chill day where we take him to a MD football game and get hammered after they lose by 50 points Ha! That's the old Bob Chill. The new one doesn't drink any more. I'm still crazy AF but I'll be the DD and get everyone home safe. haha @clskinsfan The NAM's are putting you in a mountain shadow. It's possible but this front is SW flow with jet support. I don't think there's going to be a pronounced shadow in the lee of the ridges. You may get nothing but not the way the NAMs do it imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I was at a game this year where Maryland lost by more than 50. It was fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Ha! That's the old Bob Chill. The new one doesn't drink any more. I'm still crazy AF but I'll be the DD and get everyone home safe. haha @clskinsfan The NAM's are putting you in a mountain shadow. It's possible but this front is SW flow with jet support. I don't think there's going to be a pronounced shadow in the lee of the ridges. You may get nothing but not the way the NAMs do it imho. Fair enough. I shall be wearing by Diggs jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: I was at a game this year where Maryland lost by more than 50. It was fun. Don’t worry, it’s in their blood. Has been for years, anyone remember that berth in the Orange Bowl? Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 A lot of folks know this but we throw around the term IVT or inverted trough a lot. Here's what they look like. This is a weak one but the principle is always the same. There's a "ridge like" bend or "bending back" of the surface pressure isobars off the delmarva. Basically the opposite of what a trough looks like and that's why it's called "inverted". This bend of lower pressure to the W or NW can generate precipitation. Sometimes fairly intense over a small area. Not the case on the panel below but it's the same mechanism. Departing lows interacting with approaching troughs can sometimes jackpot a small area with solid snow or rain. Whenever you see the term inverted trough around here look as surface panels and they will become obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: A lot of folks know this but we throw around the term IVT or inverted trough a lot. Here's what they like. This is a weak one but the principle is always the same. There's a "ridge like" bend or "bending back" of the surface pressure isobars off the delmarva. Basically the opposite of what a trough looks like and that's why it's called "inverted". This bend of lower pressure to the W or NW can generate precipitation. Sometimes fairly intense over a small area. Not the case on the panel below but it's the same mechanism. Departing lows interacting with approaching troughs can sometimes jackpot a small area with solid snow or rain. Whenever you see the term inverted trough around here look as surface panels and they will become obvious. 3k gives me almost 1" today! I'd laugh at it more if the 3k carried the older version's crazy precip bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: A lot of folks know this but we throw around the term IVT or inverted trough a lot. Here's what they like. This is a weak one but the principle is always the same. There's a "ridge like" bend or "bending back" of the surface pressure isobars off the delmarva. Basically the opposite of what a trough looks like and that's why it's called "inverted". This bend of lower pressure to the W or NW can generate precipitation. Sometimes fairly intense over a small area. Not the case on the panel below but it's the same mechanism. Departing lows interacting with approaching troughs can sometimes jackpot a small area with solid snow or rain. Whenever you see the term inverted trough around here look as surface panels and they will become obvious. Not that I believe it, but the 3k drops around an inch from the ivt today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: 3k gives me almost 1" today! I'd laugh at it more if the 3k carried the older version's crazy precip bias. Ninja'd and with the same opinion. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, mitchnick said: Ninja'd and with the same opinion. Lol I mean I doubt it, but I believe it slightly more than I would the older NAM. Still not a lot though. Clouds have filled in overhead though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 I think anyone in the 95 corridor between DC and Baltimore is going to love this 3K run. Gives you guys an inch to an inch and half overnight tonight before the front even gets here from the inverted trough Bob mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Ninja'd and with the same opinion. Lol Color me 100% skeptical. lol. Flurry watch may be hoisted if radar lights up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I mean I doubt it, but I believe it slightly more than I would the older NAM. Still not a lot though. Clouds have filled in overhead though... Yep, low cumulus clouds are streaming in from the SE as I post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: A lot of folks know this but we throw around the term IVT or inverted trough a lot. Here's what they like. This is a weak one but the principle is always the same. There's a "ridge like" bend or "bending back" of the surface pressure isobars off the delmarva. Basically the opposite of what a trough looks like and that's why it's called "inverted". This bend of lower pressure to the W or NW can generate precipitation. Sometimes fairly intense over a small area. Not the case on the panel below but it's the same mechanism. Departing lows interacting with approaching troughs can sometimes jackpot a small area with solid snow or rain. Whenever you see the term inverted trough around here look as surface panels and they will become obvious. Baltimore City for the win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The NAM twins are being very kind to me this morning, allowing that jackpotted area in Pennsylvania to nose down I-81 into northern Berkeley County. Its a razor-sharp gradient and very tenuous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3K NAM much juicer for the northern folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I mean I doubt it, but I believe it slightly more than I would the older NAM. Still not a lot though. Clouds have filled in overhead though... Most other Mesos have something as well. Location differs a tad, but suggestive of a possible coating here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, WVclimo said: The NAM twins are being very kind to me this morning, allowing that jackpotted area in Pennsylvania to nose down I-81 into northern Berkeley County. Its a razor-sharp gradient and very tenuous. Tight gradient is right. Doesnt really make down to me. I am hugging the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Most other Mesos have something as well. Location differs a tad, but suggestive of a possible coating here and there. GFS has a trace during the period but only shows on the qpf panels and not the surface panels. 5dbz ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, mappy said: 3K NAM much juicer for the northern folks. there are some spots of 3" within there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Heh, Dewey beach jack http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DOX-N0Q-1-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, mappy said: there are some spots of 3" within there. That's a tad ugly no thanks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Mitch approves. I'd consider it a win at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, Dewey beach jack http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DOX-N0Q-1-12 lol yeah I have been watching that. I suppose we could see an expansion in the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Most other Mesos have something as well. Location differs a tad, but suggestive of a possible coating here and there. High-res RGEM hasn't shown anything yet. We'll see what it says at 12z, but could be an interesting test to see how it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, leesburg 04 said: That's a tad ugly no thanks lol I'm not buying the Nams depiction of the ridges stealing the show. I'll prob go down with the ship on this but this isn't the type of event where you see a big lee shadow like what the nams are showing. At least in my mind I see it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, mappy said: there are some spots of 3" within there. Yeah but that is from both events... It is showing an inch of snow today. Believe me, I hope it is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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