dallen7908 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 With winter weather advisories in place for 15 connected states ranging from Mississippi/Alabama in the south, Wisconsin/Michigan in the north, Kansas/Texas in the west, and West Virginia in the east it's hard to believe we'll completely whiff tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Slowing down the frontal passage will solve 80% of our problems imho. That's the basis for the Canadian and the JMA. That's how the decent runs of the Euro did it. We can have a beatiful, closed vort, but if it's whizzing on by us, forget it. Your right 100%. Even without a closed low of the front slows and is still over us when the trough and associated vort passes it will work. But there is a symbiotic relationship because it's not a coincidence that all the runs that slow the front a lot also end up being cut off at h5. If the trough is progressive the front will be too. That said we can get a decent snow without a coastal if we get a less progressive trough alignment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 How is HM not a billionaire? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Your right 100%. Even without a closed low of the front slows and is still over us when the trough and associated vort passes it will work. But there is a symbiotic relationship because it's not a coincidence that all the runs that slow the front a lot also end up being cut off at h5. If the trough is progressive the front will be too. That said we can get a decent snow without a coastal if we get a less progressive trough alignment. The big reason I felt like this was a high prob of at least a decent light event was how the front progresses. It starts out aligned nearly due W-E before rotating counterclockwise around the closed low/shortwave to the north. The tail also passes close to the GoM and there's plenty of atlantic moisture running around off the coast. That plus the sw-ne alignment as it moves through with good jet support has all the ingredients to not be some typical paltry moisture starved front that gets Pac Man'd by the apps. There's going to be a lot of happy people watching high ratio snow fall and pile up more than a dusting or cartoppper even if they don't want to admit it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Shame that at the moment the euro and EPS are a useless mess. And I'm not saying we know the end result but no matter what happens the euro has been useless because in the last 6 runs it's had 3 amplified cutoff solutions and 3 progressive solutions. That makes it useless since it bounces around between different extremes and camps. I'm truly astounded with how bad it's been for such a long stretch. Hopefully it's just this pattern and not a permanent problem because having one of the two flagship pieces of guidance useless to us really will hurt forecasting. We've essentially lost one of the two major data points used to judge and determine trends each model run. I don't know how anyone can take it seriously given it's track record lately but without it all we really have is the gfs/gefs (and the gefs has a group think issue) and a bunch of b level guidance. (Yea I know ukmet scores and all but I agree with JI and others that when it comes to east coast storms it has a tendency to swing wildly from over amped to progressive and doesn't have enough consistency to be reliable). Makes our hobby more fun. It is more like a casino now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 JMA is east of 0z. Gets the coastal going a little to late for us. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=jma&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=jma&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=078 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 hours ago, Ji said: Let's give it till 12z. 0z and 12z don't seem to be in Sync. Plenty of time.. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Someone got a good night sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The big reason I felt like this was a high prob of at least a decent light event was how the front progresses. It starts out aligned nearly due W-E before rotating counterclockwise around the closed low/shortwave to the north. The tail also passes close to the GoM and there's plenty of atlantic moisture running around off the coast. That plus the sw-ne alignment as it moves through with good jet support has all the ingredients to not be some typical paltry moisture starved front that gets Pac Man'd by the apps. There's going to be a lot of happy people watching high ratio snow fall and pile up more than a dusting or cartoppper even if they don't want to admit it. Lol contrary to my first post ITT, snow is snow and I'll take whatever I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 16 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: With winter weather advisories in place for 15 connected states ranging from Mississippi/Alabama in the south, Wisconsin/Michigan in the north, Kansas/Texas in the west, and West Virginia in the east it's hard to believe we'll completely whiff tomorrow evening. You must be new to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: JMA is east of 0z. Gets the coastal going a little to late for us. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=jma&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=jma&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=078 Shame I was so sure the jma Cmc combo was a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Can we start radar hallucinations yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 i'm hugging the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, MD Snow said: JMA is east of 0z. Gets the coastal going a little to late for us. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=jma&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=jma&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=078 But it has snow starting in our area from the front with 48 hours and it continues through 72 or 78. Not as good as 0z, but still a 2-4" event I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: i'm hugging the RGEM It's not done there either. Canadian is the only high end solution left. But we're good when has the Canadian teased us with too much snow before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 35 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Slowing down the frontal passage will solve 80% of our problems imho. That's the basis for the Canadian and the JMA. That's how the decent runs of the Euro did it. We can have a beatiful, closed vort, but if it's whizzing on by us, forget it. Agree. We should be skeptical of the non progressive runs though mitchnick. That's not the pattern we've been in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: It's not done there either. Canadian is the only high end solution left. But we're good when has the Canadian teased us with too much snow before? never. ALL ABOARD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: But it has snow starting in our area from the front with 48 hours and it continues through 72 or 78. Not as good as 0z, but still a 2-4" event I would guess. It went from 25 mm to about 3mm in one run. But other then that it's great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Agree. We should be skeptical of the non progressive runs though mitchnick. That's not the pattern we've been in. Hold on there. I'm not saying I buy either solution right now, except that the trend has been to slow things down. I was just saying what we needed. But since you mentioned it, it does seem that the atmosphere has shifted from the fast nw flow that dominated until the recent warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It went from 25 mm to about 3mm in one run. But other then that it's great. Ughh, I didn't bother to add the panels. EDIT: Looks like 4.5-5mm imby as it actually starts at 42 hours. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It went from 25 mm to about 3mm in one run. But other then that it's great. I count about 10mm for dc. For the 6z jma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The snow accum maps are nice and all but I think alot of folks are overlooking the fact we shifted away from a light-moderate 3-6 hr event to a longer duration event with even lighter rates. For many this is going to be a mood flake event. For those few who can score a car topper, congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Good morning everyone. Seems like the shutout is off the table at least? I’m happy with that....until 12z robs us. So 1-3” with some possible extra juice seem like a legit forecast? There are some kids and a wife (HoCo teacher) that I need to report back to. Lol. Eta: cartopper Ralph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Scraff said: Good morning everyone. Seems like the shutout is off the table at least? I’m happy with that....until 12z robs us. So 1-3” with some possible extra juice seem like a legit forecast? There are some kids and a wife (HoCo teacher) that I need to report back to. Lol. Eta: cartopper Ralph? I'm all about a 2-hour delay Wednesday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, mappy said: I'm all about a 2-hour delay Wednesday AM. All it takes is flurries around here for a delay. That should be easy Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Scraff said: All it takes is flurries around here for a delay. That should be easy Wednesday. Need them to announce tomorrow night though. I hate the early AM announcements as I'm already awake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, mappy said: Need them to announce tomorrow night though. I hate the early AM announcements as I'm already awake. My point and click is for a high of 29 on Wednesday. There could be delays without any snowflakes imo. eta: I promise to be more careful with my comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: There could be delays without any snowflakes imo. Wouldn't be the first time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, mappy said: Need them to announce tomorrow night though. I hate the early AM announcements as I'm already awake. Timing is pretty good for a day off school Wed. Especially in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Well the 3K is dry as a bone out here. Not a single flake. Of course you guys to the east get an inch out of it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Timing is pretty good for a day off school Wed. Especially in your area. you're my favorite, you know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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