Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Let's hope the king gets his crown back this week. Haha Sometimes a model picks up on a big shift in the short or med range first and then everything follows shortly. I've even seen the NAM do it but unfortunately that time it was when the wheels started falling off. Once I saw the 12z eps it felt like one of those times in our favor but still only having 1 model suite do it is sketchy. More models jumping in at 72 hour leads is pretty encouraging. Still tenuous and prone for a miss east but hopefully we can squeeze 1-3 from the front before worrying about that. What we need tonight is the euro to show one of the eps solutions that tucked a low into central NJ and we get CCB'd for 6-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Euro. And DT I guess. He's been off the mark since the Dec 29th potential overrunning fail, and said the Jan 4th storm would go OTS Euro. It Scores a big win if it ends up being right. Was on an island by itself 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 22 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Here's your signficant trend my friend. One more of these and we won't know what to do with ourselves. Oh yeah that's right... Thats what I am talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlamSlam Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Sometimes a model picks up on a big shift in the short or med range first and then everything follows shortly. I've even seen the NAM do it but unfortunately that time it was when the wheels started falling off. Once I saw the 12z eps it felt like one of those times in our favor but still only having 1 model suite do it is sketchy. More models jumping in at 72 hour leads is pretty encouraging. Still tenuous and prone for a miss east but hopefully we can squeeze 1-3 from the front before worrying about that. What we need tonight is the euro to show one of the eps solutions that tucked a low into central NJ and we get CCB'd for 6-12 hours. What is CCBD?Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, SlamSlam said: What is CCBD? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Cold conveyer belt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Euro. It Scores a big win if it ends up being right. Was on an island by itself 24 hours ago. To be fair...24 hrs ago it’s last run would have been m 12z and that run totally lost the coastal idea if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Ukie doesn't close off h5 at hr72 but it's much closer to the cmc/euro than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, SlamSlam said: What is CCBD? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk If you like snow, getting CCB'd is the HOLY GRAIL. You get tons of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The ukmet is a jv model to me. It's seems wildly inconsistent. I know the grades but it's not that goodSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: The ukmet is a jv model to me. It's seems wildly inconsistent. I know the grades but it's not that good Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Unless it shows you getting buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: The ukmet is a jv model to me. It's seems wildly inconsistent. I know the grades but it's not that good Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Yup, it is the "second best model" in a vacuum in the lab. The model does weird stuff with coastal lows and always has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: The ukmet is a jv model to me. It's seems wildly inconsistent. I know the grades but it's not that good Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Drops an inch or 2 this run so that's an improvement. 12z was a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Yup, it is the "second best model" in a vacuum in the lab. The model does weird stuff with coastal lows and always has. One poster said it tends to be too far east with very dynamic lows and too amped with weaker ones. I've seen the first happen and it just did with last week's storm but I have not noticed the 2nd one. It still generally tells you the idea of the Euro most of the time an hour ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Drops an inch or 2 this run so that's an improvement. 12z was a disaster. Yeah 12z had like .02-.05 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: One poster said it tends to be too far east with very dynamic lows and too amped with weaker ones. I've seen the first happen and it just did with last week's storm but I have not noticed the 2nd one. It still generally tells you the idea of the Euro most of the time an hour ahead It did a phenomenal job of that at 12z...just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I think the 0z euro is the most important run for deciding that fate of Ji's sanity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I think the 0z euro is the most important run for deciding that fate of Ji's sanity I might seed the clouds while I'm still up here floating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Unsurprisingly, the gefs is uninspiring. Better than 18z and supports 1-3 but only one solution remotely close to the euro/cmc/jma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Let's hope we can score something here... looks like the last thing we have to track for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, Interstate said: Let's hope we can score something here... looks like the last thing we have to track for awhile Not so sure, didn’t this one pop up out of nowhere 4 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, Red1976Red said: Not so sure, didn’t this one pop up out of nowhere 4 days out? Sort of but we had the cold to work with. After this one we prob have to deal with another rainer/warm couple days. However, starting to see some changes from the 23rd onward. Confluence and blocking could force something under us. Ensembles are slowly adding snowier solutions down the line every suite. 0z gfs had a pretty decent fantasy storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Where is Ji? The 00z JMA (which is statistically much better) is basically a MECS. Don't have it beyond 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The page I get the the JMA from is off Earl Barker page. I don't even know if the 00z run goes out beyond 72 hours because on his page the 00z runs never do. That precip is just from 72 hours, so I imagine with the ULL almost positive and about to be even tilt negative it would be spit out some big time #s...Anyway, EURO should be be beginning any minute. Good luck to all. If EURO comes in decent I am going to hop on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Agreed @Wentzadelphia...this is a decent look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Must get an actual low pressure center interacting with the upper low, otherwise it's going to be dead stratocumulus with trace amounts of sleet and snow grains. Lots of time for this to evolve, I'm just saying that surface low is vital, otherwise this won't ignite until upper low gets out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Jma is just about perfect at h5. That's a big hit for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Jma is just about perfect at h5. That's a big hit for sure. Is there anyway the gfs and ensembles could be so wrong so close to game time? Just hard to phathomSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Lol. Jma is ccb rakage for a 12 hours from 95 east. Good everywhere though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: Is there anyway the gfs and ensembles could be so wrong so close to game time? Just hard to phathom Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk They were way off for costal areas in the Jan 4th storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Where is Ji? The 00z JMA (which is statistically much better) is basically a MECS. Don't have it beyond 72 The jma loves coastal but this is a good sign. I usually worry when it's not on board with the A team models Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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