clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 We are two days out from first flakes according to the 3k. Here's hoping everyone, including us westerners, actually see accumulations for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 I wonder what is going on with the RGEM on TT? The last run I see is the 18Z from yesterday. Anybody have a link to it somewhere else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Not as good as 0z but strong support for 1-3" through the region. Hopefully 12z paints full green coverage on all memebers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I like what the 3k is doing with the tail of the trough at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 The GFS gets precip into the western burbs midday Tuesday as well. It's a general 1-2 inches throughout the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not as good as 0z but strong support for 1-3" through the region. Hopefully 12z paints full green coverage on all memebers. I'll take a 2 or 9 please, but seeing how this winter has gone so far, a 8 or 16 is more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not as good as 0z but strong support for 1-3" through the region. Hopefully 12z paints full green coverage on all memebers. What did eps show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 There are both multiple ways to score and fail here. First I see 3 different paths to some snow. 1. This is the easiest and least risky but lowest end (1-2") the trough simply takes on just enough tilt to get enough cross boundary flow that we get a band of overrunning snow with the front. 2. The frontal band gets enhanced by the first piece of energy coming around the trough. This would develop a low east of us too late for us but it could enhance precip along the frontal wave for us. That's what last nights gfs was doing. This is a little more complicated but has 2-4 maybe 3-6 upside. 3. The trough digs and the first wave escapes then the h5 cuts off to our southwest and a storm develops and comes up. That's not dead yet. It's delayed. But it's still there on enough ensemble members, and the 3k nam looked headed that way,to keep an eye on it. The EPS was leaning that way only missed us south with most members. This is the lowest probability with the highest upside. How it can all go wrong is if the atmosphere tries to pull off option 3 and doesn't quite bring it together. As the trough digs then amplifies to our south ince it develops a closed circulation system it will cut off the moisture transport along the front. So if we end up in between like many of the EPS members with a stronger storm to our south but developing too late to get up to us we get screwed out of everything. I am kinda rooting on option 2. Simplest safest way to a respectable win. 1 is meh and 3 is nail biting risky. But if course the atmosphere don't care what I want. Who wants to take bets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There are both multiple ways to score and fail here. First I see 3 different paths to some snow. 1. This is the easiest and least risky but lowest end (1-2") the trough simply takes on just enough tilt to get enough cross boundary flow that we get a band of overrunning snow with the front. 2. The frontal band gets enhanced by the first piece of energy coming around the trough. This would develop a low east of us too late for us but it could enhance precip along the frontal wave for us. That's what last nights gfs was doing. This is a little more complicated but has 2-4 maybe 3-6 upside. 3. The trough digs and the first wave escapes then the h5 cuts off to our southwest and a storm develops and comes up. That's not dead yet. It's delayed. But it's still there on enough ensemble members, and the 3k nam looked headed that way,to keep an eye on it. The EPS was leaning that way only missed us south with most members. This is the lowest probability with the highest upside. How it can all go wrong is if the atmosphere tries to pull off option 3 and doesn't quite bring it together. As the trough digs then amplifies to our south ince it develops a closed circulation system it will cut off the moisture transport along the front. So if we end up in between like many of the EPS members with a stronger storm to our south but developing too late to get up to us we get screwed out of everything. I am kinda rooting on option 2. Simplest safest way to a respectable win. 1 is meh and 3 is nail biting risky. But if course the atmosphere don't care what I want. Who wants to take bets... Climo may argue for the latter scenario imo (not #3), but good descriptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Gfs just went option 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I'll roll with option 3. I've seen enough coatings to two inch storms this winter to last me a lifetime. No thanks. I want something where I can take my kid sledding or build a snowman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs just went option 1 Volatile nina pattern continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs just went option 1 Yep. And then NAM was actually very close to option 2. If it had strengthened the first wave instead of the second one we would have had a better event. I think it is likely that we all see at least an inch or two at this point regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: I'll roll with option 3. I've seen enough coatings to two inch storms this winter to last me a lifetime. No thanks. I want something where I can take my kid sledding or build a snowman. Well some of us havent even seen those light events this year. So we will take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yep. And then NAM was actually very close to option 2. If it had strengthened the first wave instead of the second one we would have had a better event. I think it is likely that we all see at least an inch or two at this point regardless. Nam was kind of a mix of 1&3. It digs the trough so slow it has enough separation between waves that we get some snow with the front then it cuts off and tries something to our south that looks like a miss but I don't sleep on cutoff h5 lows to our southwest with cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Well some of us havent even seen those light events this year. So we will take what we can get. Yea, this winter + picky = crazy I mean I get it. I want 50 feet in 12 hours but 1-3" on cold ground will be your first and my second biggest event of the year. I didn't dig deep on the gfs but the enhanced precip in cva looked like a weak lee side or inverted trough. That piece can move around a lot. Prob won't be until 0z tonight before we know which option Psu pointed out is most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Cmc tries to connect an IVT in front of the main band. Pretty short range so it's possible. Wouldn't amount to much before the band but since we're discussing the event it's worth pointing out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs just went option 1 light Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Fixed Gfs was generally .07-.15 across our entire area. That's 1-2". That was option 1. That's why I said it's meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 21 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Well some of us havent even seen those light events this year. So we will take what we can get. Yep. If I can get 1 inch I would double my seasonal snow total. 1 to 3 would look like a blizzard the way this season has went for us westerners...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs was generally .07-.15 across our entire area. That's 1-2". That was option 1. That's why I said it's meh. Much of Baltimore to DC close to I95 are in the .05 to .099 over a relatively long period (which never helps accumulations in marginal events.) That's why I said light. Plus, what systems we have had this year, despite the cold, ratios have been 10:1 give or take 1. Verbatim, the Gfs strikes me as <1" for most except for the usual favored locations. Plenty of time to change of course. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2018011412&fh=84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Much of Baltimore to DC close to I95 are in the .05 to .099 over a relatively long period (which never helps accumulations in marginal events.) That's why I said light. Plus, what systems we have had this year, despite the cold, ratios have been 10:1 give or take 1. Verbatim, the Gfs strikes me as <1" for most except for the usual favored locations. Plenty of time to change of course. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2018011412&fh=84 The long duration light point is a good one. It might be a coating-1". But either way it's a meh event. That's why I went option 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 12z rgem also has the weak ivt precip overnight Monday. T-1" from nova to the northern tier. This happens before the band gets here. Eta: On second glance some precip falls in the md corridor during the day tomorrow on the rgem as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: I wonder what is going on with the RGEM on TT? The last run I see is the 18Z from yesterday. Anybody have a link to it somewhere else? Meteocentre has it, but pivotalweather has better maps. Look for the RDPS. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=qpf_acc&rh=2018011412&fh=39&r=us_ma&dpdt Both it and the 3k NAM have some light recip somewhere in the region tomorrow before the front gets to us. ETA: Just saw that Bob Chill has an explanation for the precip above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I'll take an inch without question. We are a nickle and dime town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 The gefs is split. Some good members but honestly there are way too many that show my fail option and stick D.C. In between the overrunning and the developing coastal to the south. Hence the dry slot over us. The band dies from the front as the coastal to the south takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The gefs is split. Some good members but honestly there are way too many that show my fail option and stick D.C. In between the overrunning and the developing coastal to the south. Hence the dry slot over us. The band dies from the front as the coastal to the south takes over. Do we know if anyone, not necessarily on this Board, has done any research to determine biases of the individual members? Sure would save a lot of guesswork if there has been. I have to believe Ncep knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Do we know if anyone, not necessarily on this Board, has done any research to determine biases of the individual members? Sure would save a lot of guesswork if there has been. I have to believe Ncep knows. We don't need that... we know our climate... it happen all too often around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The gefs is split. Some good members but honestly there are way too many that show my fail option and stick D.C. In between the overrunning and the developing coastal to the south. Hence the dry slot over us. The band dies from the front as the coastal to the south takes over. Gefs resolution sucks and the event is light. I'm not saying I think fail isn't on the table but the gefs is not known for skill with light events. Our fate will prob be determined by the mesos tomorrow. Globals will broad brush and meso's will drill down. At least that's what I've been told. Lol. Can't wait for hrrr runs so we can live and die every 60 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 12Z Navgem looks pretty good. I dont have total precip panels but it looks like an extended period of snow at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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