jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Up to 46 right now,much warmer than the models showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: Up to 46 right now,much warmer than the models showed There is some serious WAA occurring right now, I'm up to 44 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, ShawnEastTN said: There is some serious WAA occurring right now, I'm up to 44 now. 44 here as well, this is good! I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 OHX Quick update mentioning upping temps: Quote Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 114 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 .UPDATE... FOR MORNING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Arctic front extends from southern IL southwest into the bootheel of MO. Patchy snowfall already ongoing in advance of this feature and is located just northwest of our cwa. For the update, will up temperatures by a few degrees area wide. Remainder of fcst appears to be on track in terms of onset of snow fall. One other change, though, was to remove the initial rain/snow mix. A closer look at the wet bulb soundings shows that wet bulb freezing heights at 21z will be around 1000 ft agl. Thus, the sounding would cool sufficiently, if measurable precip occurs, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Raobs hasn't updated yet at 1 but here's 12,clearly seeing WAA like Shawn was saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 40 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Biggest fly in the ointment is energy trying to transfer from the north/west PVA to the south/east PVA. In the past that has been an awful disappointment for snow fans. Understand why MRX is trying to hold; it's like staying on 16 in blackjack and hoping the dealer busts first.. ARW version shows the snow band disintegrating into eastern Tenn. Painful prog. BNA and MEM are a little more on board, and perhaps justified. I'm mentally preparing to get blanked in Chattanooga. Anything above a dusting will be a pleasant surprise. Knox has a better chance of sticking snow. Ditto TRI. Jeff i think my newbie eyes can understand what you are saying on the 12z rgem, which i interpret to show at hour 20 strong returns in west tn, then a transfer a few frames later to areas like northeast ga, northwest sc and on up into central nc and va? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJacks Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, jaxjagman said: Raobs hasn't updated yet at 1 but here's 12,clearly seeing WAA like Shawn was saying The warm air advection at the 700 mb back in Texas appears to be strong than progged will have to watch to see if this translates eastward, would mean more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 18Z NAM at hour 6 is definitely jucier than 12Z at the same time. Love the toggle on tidbits between previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The SREF average went up from 2 inches to 2.75 inches for Knoxville. One big dog at 6.5 inches. Most have at least 1.5 inches now. The lowest one is .8 inches. Let the good trends continue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, Wurbus said: The SREF average went up from 2 inches to 2.75 inches for Knoxville. One big dog at 6.5 inches. Most have at least 1.5 inches now. The lowest one is .8 inches. Let the good trends continue! Yeah here are the last 4 runs means for TYS red is the most recent followed by Blue Green and purple respectively for previous runs. That is a considerable jump in mean in fact the largest jump in mean i've seen on this storm so far for TYS. Probably a good indicator that the NAM is going to be much wetter this run. CHA jumped to a quarter inch shy of 2 inches the biggest jump it has had also, all the major sites in the forum jumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On the 18z nam, some of those returns out of north mississippi look shockingly strong to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 18z NAM quite obviously fatter and more juicy than 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The bands moving out of mississippi heading east northeast through tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 NAM really dries things out heading East compared to prior runs. West Tennessee wins big time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I think the 12 and 3K NAM look wetter east than previous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, ShawnEastTN said: I think the 12 and 3K NAM look wetter east than previous. Looks opposite to me. Maybe it's just slower. Knox area went from around 3 inches to 1.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: NAM really dries things out heading East compared to prior runs. West Tennessee wins big time though. Yep totals almost cut in half east from 12z to 18z hope it don't trend that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, John1122 said: Looks opposite to me. Maybe it's just slower. Knox area went from around 3 inches to 1.5 inches. Yeah actually I see what you see I wasn't looking at QPF maps. Does look like a fall in QPF in east on QPF maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 It amped up a lot in the west and dies as it moves East. Wouldn't be stunned to see that happen. It looks like West Tennessee is having a bonanza this winter if this run is right. Nashville gets a big hit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Thats really strange too because usually jumps in SREF can be seen in the NAM, its like its ensembles essentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I am a little confused as well, (might be my inexperience) but the simulated radar looked good to me on the 32 and 12 km nam...to the point, i didnt bother to check qpf. It wasnt the spectacular returns to the west but it looked to me consistent to prior runs if not a little better, and the same duration, and then i looked at the crummy qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The NAM 3k has been consistently drier than the 12k, but it actually ticked up for more of the forum that run. Still looking like 2 to 3 a good bet for parts of the plateau and west areas, .5-2 over the rest of these area with 1 to 1.5 being the most common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Bango said: I am a little confused as well, (might be my inexperience) but the simulated radar looked good to me on the 32 and 12 km nam...to the point, i didnt bother to check qpf. It wasnt the spectacular returns to the west but it looked to me consistent to prior runs if not a little better, until looking at qpf That is what got me as well, the reflective simulation looked better and I also didn't look at QPF right away for that reason. Still strange to me that it looked better but QPF dropped and SREF went up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Whats interesting it so far looks like QPF is higher on 3K for all the areas up to hour 27. May end up with the 3K upping totals 12K less. Still snowing at hour 27, so curious to see what its final looks like. EDIT: down for some up for others... Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I wouldn’t get worked up over one run when the theme today has been more qpf on every mod. Let it run again and see what happens, could of been a hiccup. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 MRX going 1-2 inches south of 40, 2-3” north of 40 and 3-4 inches in the favored areas outside the valley with more in the highest elevations. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: MRX going 1-2 inches south of 40, 2-3” north of 40 and 3-4 inches in the favored areas outside the valley with more in the highest elevations. . That's a little more amp'd than I expected out of them, typically being conservative. WBIR cut their totals down as soon as the 18z NAM came out. I know which model they like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 My ZFP is what I expected. Tuesday Snow in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Highs in the lower to mid 20s. Temperature steady or slowly falling in the afternoon. Northwest winds 10 mph or less. Chance of snow 80 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 NWS Tulsa noted this morning that the WAA was more than pronged and some areas of Kansas started as rain. But, they also mentioned most the moisture was anafrontal and the column cooled rapidly during frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Is the Hrrx any good on tropical tidbits snow looks good on it but it don't show totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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