jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said: any way to post a map of this perhaps? thank you http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJacks Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Notice the 2nd snow band developing in MS and streaking into AL. That is some of the higher pwats being tapped as lift begins to max. I have seen this look before, I would guess that becomes the more dominant snow band. As the trough tilts, it will likely move a little slower. I think precip rates are being underplayed in that one band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJacks Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Here is a look at the higher PWATS trend. Especially in the last 5 frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJacks Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Also, when you look at the transformation happening aloft...I could see the snow finish a bit heavier than what NAM is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, RichardJacks said: Here is a look at the higher PWATS trend. Especially in the last 5 frames. You don't think the convection being shown in the lower plains and deep south being shown on the NAM will choke off the QPF's?Relative speaking it's not strong but still there,just wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Nam 3k was better that run for Northern Miss, West Tn, and NE TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The RGEM went from dry to 18z NAM mirror. Widespread 2+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJacks Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: You don't think the convection being shown in the lower plains and deep south being shown on the NAM will choke off the QPF's?Relative speaking it's not strong but still there,just wondering For moisture to be cutoff by convection, you typically need a more linear look to the south. There just isn't enough there to provide any kind of bock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 RGEM when from no qpf in most of the state to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 You can also see the GFS trending toward the NAM at 700 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Not that it was needed but the Icon is on board with the gulf connection now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Some interesting developments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 00z GFS looked better out west, then cuts a some of the moisture in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 27 minutes ago, RichardJacks said: For moisture to be cutoff by convection, you typically need a more linear look to the south. There just isn't enough there to provide any kind of bock. You are probably right.The NAM in this range might even be wrong with convection.But still with convection it's showing would cut off the QPFS it seems to me some way or another.We've seen this many times in the Tn Valley with winter storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 0z CMC is solid like the RGEM and then it pops a coastal that gives our friends east a good storm. 1-2 across most of the state (10:1 ratio on tropical tidbits) and some 3” spots over the Plateau and SWVA/KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 not a big snow maker,ratios still look good at times GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z JAN15 * - APPROXIMATED SFC SFC 2 M SFC SFC SFC 6 HR TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND PCP QPF CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (PCT) MON 00Z 15-JAN 21.8 12.2 06001 MON 06Z 15-JAN 24.2 21.6 23.8 14.0 15003 0.00 84 MON 12Z 15-JAN 25.5 23.4 23.6 12.6 19006 0.00 62 MON 18Z 15-JAN 40.0 23.6 40.0 26.7 22010 0.00 1 TUE 00Z 16-JAN 42.4 31.8 31.8 27.1 30005 0.01 63 TUE 06Z 16-JAN 31.6 23.8 23.9 21.8 35008 SN 0.01 76 TUE 12Z 16-JAN 23.6 17.0 17.0 14.6 35007 SN 0.05 100 TUE 18Z 16-JAN 18.2 14.9 18.2 15.6 33006 SN 0.03 95 WED 00Z 17-JAN 18.8 12.8 12.8 7.5 34006 0.00 89 WED 06Z 17-JAN 12.7 10.1 10.1 6.0 34005 0.00 79 WED 12Z 17-JAN 10.0 9.0 9.0 6.3 33005 0.00 74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, 1234snow said: 0z CMC is solid like the RGEM and then it pops a coastal that gives our friends east a good storm. 1-2 across most of the state (10:1 ratio on tropical tidbits) and some 3” spots over the Plateau and SWVA/KY. It looks like the Canucks are going to go from the driest model to the wettest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 00Z JAN15 * - APPROXIMATED SFC SFC 2 M SFC SFC SFC 6 HR TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND PCP QPF CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (PCT) MON 00Z 15-JAN 22.2 8.7 02001 MON 06Z 15-JAN 23.1 21.3 22.2 9.7 15001 0.00 8 MON 12Z 15-JAN 23.6 22.2 22.8 11.6 18001 0.00 38 MON 18Z 15-JAN 40.6 22.5 40.6 22.0 22008 0.00 0 TUE 00Z 16-JAN 42.4 31.6 31.6 20.8 20004 0.00 9 TUE 06Z 16-JAN 31.7 28.7 28.8 21.0 22002 0.00 4 TUE 12Z 16-JAN 28.8 26.7 27.0 22.4 22001 0.00 66 TUE 18Z 16-JAN 32.0 27.6 30.9 26.2 29004 SN 0.02 92 WED 00Z 17-JAN 30.9 22.7 22.8 19.0 32004 SN 0.06 99 WED 06Z 17-JAN 22.6 13.0 13.2 8.8 34004 0.00 74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The best convective snows should be in our NW parts of the Valley again on the GFS.The NAM appears to be out to lunch,shouldn't surprise anyone in this time frame.I did buy into it..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: The best convective snows should be in our NW parts of the Valley again on the GFS.The NAM appears to be out to lunch,shouldn't surprise anyone in this time frame.I did buy into it..lol The NAM gets over amped but it may have came in line at 00z with less qpf. The GFS is on an island though. It's either going to score when no other model does or it's going to bust badly. Right now it's the NAM/RGEM/Euro/GGEM vs the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Looking at the 700 RH and Vertical Velocities, I believe the GFS is out to lunch on QPF output. It looks fairly similar to NAM, but doesn't correlate it to QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, John1122 said: The NAM gets over amped but it may have came in line at 00z with less qpf. The GFS is on an island though. It's either going to score when no other model does or it's going to bust badly. Right now it's the NAM/RGEM/Euro/GGEM vs the GFS. You could be right.Looking at the convection on the euro just now it looks like the Nam.I just hate seeing convection into the southern plains and lower Ms Valley during a storm,its a recipe for disaster for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Canadian has way more lift than any of the other models as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Canadian has way more lift than any of the other models as well Only problem with the CMC is it's cold bias,you can't trust it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The Euro is virtually the same as 12z. Little larger with the .2+ qpf in the NW and SEKY/Plateau area and a little drier in some areas but that's just run to run variability. 1-3 inch event for many, in line with all the other models except the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Jma 0z not loading for me, but dang things are looking up...gfs is on an island, but even then it’s only had 1-2 drier runs, 6z looked like euro etc now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 32 minutes ago, John1122 said: The Euro is virtually the same as 12z. Little larger with the .2+ qpf in the NW and SEKY/Plateau area and a little drier in some areas but that's just run to run variability. 1-3 inch event for many, in line with all the other models except the gfs. Couple inches by the euro,ratios still look decent in Mid Tn.Carvers warm spell looks to be pushed back a couple days,but the Euro shows it.I didnt think it would be that bad,but it could be on the Euro ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z JAN15 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) MON 00Z 15-JAN 23.7 7.0 04002 0.00 0.00 97 MON 06Z 15-JAN 25.6 23.4 25.0 5.8 16004 0.01 0.01 93 MON 12Z 15-JAN 26.8 24.7 25.5 6.2 19006 0.00 0.00 10 MON 18Z 15-JAN 43.1 25.0 43.4 16.1 22009 0.00 0.00 40 TUE 00Z 16-JAN 46.5 33.2 33.8 24.8 31005 0.00 0.00 93 TUE 06Z 16-JAN 33.8 26.1 26.4 21.0 34007 0.00 0.00 97 TUE 12Z 16-JAN 26.4 20.1 20.0 11.5 34007 0.05 0.05 100 TUE 18Z 16-JAN 20.0 17.2 17.8 4.6 33006 0.06 0.06 100 WED 00Z 17-JAN 19.7 14.5 14.3 -1.4 33006 0.01 0.01 11 WED 06Z 17-JAN 14.6 10.9 11.3 -3.4 34005 0.00 0.00 2 WED 12Z 17-JAN 11.7 9.8 10.0 -1.0 32005 0.00 0.00 32 WED 18Z 17-JAN 24.4 9.7 24.7 4.3 33005 0.00 0.00 22 THU 00Z 18-JAN 26.9 20.5 20.3 6.7 30005 0.00 0.00 0 THU 06Z 18-JAN 20.4 17.0 17.1 6.6 26004 0.00 0.00 0 THU 12Z 18-JAN 17.4 15.8 16.2 4.2 22004 0.00 0.00 0 THU 18Z 18-JAN 35.9 16.0 36.2 0.1 23005 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 00Z 19-JAN 40.3 29.3 29.3 3.5 21006 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 06Z 19-JAN 29.3 25.6 25.6 2.1 21007 0.00 0.00 60 FRI 12Z 19-JAN 25.6 23.3 23.5 2.7 20006 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 18Z 19-JAN 45.3 23.5 45.6 12.2 21008 0.00 0.00 93 SAT 00Z 20-JAN 46.6 39.3 39.2 20.6 19007 0.00 0.00 88 SAT 06Z 20-JAN 39.2 37.0 37.8 19.9 19008 0.00 0.00 93 SAT 12Z 20-JAN 39.2 37.6 38.8 23.1 19008 0.00 0.00 94 SAT 18Z 20-JAN 51.1 38.7 51.3 29.2 19009 0.00 0.00 57 SUN 00Z 21-JAN 54.9 45.3 45.1 36.5 17008 0.00 0.00 18 SUN 06Z 21-JAN 45.4 43.0 44.6 39.7 18009 0.00 0.00 24 SUN 12Z 21-JAN 44.6 41.4 41.4 36.3 16008 0.00 0.00 6 SUN 18Z 21-JAN 59.3 41.1 59.6 46.9 17010 0.00 0.00 13 MON 00Z 22-JAN 61.9 56.4 56.4 47.9 16011 0.00 0.00 99 MON 06Z 22-JAN 58.6 55.3 55.8 55.3 17017 0.16 0.00 100 MON 12Z 22-JAN 56.3 44.8 44.5 42.8 23008 0.57 0.00 7 MON 18Z 22-JAN 49.1 42.6 49.2 29.4 25011 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 00Z 23-JAN 50.0 42.4 42.1 27.4 23007 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 06Z 23-JAN 42.1 36.1 36.0 27.1 24006 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 12Z 23-JAN 36.0 29.1 29.1 24.9 22005 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 18Z 23-JAN 50.6 28.4 50.8 29.4 15003 0.00 0.00 76 WED 00Z 24-JAN 53.0 42.5 42.3 31.5 14005 0.00 0.00 95 WED 06Z 24-JAN 43.6 40.8 43.2 27.4 18009 0.00 0.00 98 WED 12Z 24-JAN 43.7 42.0 42.4 30.1 18009 0.00 0.00 99 WED 18Z 24-JAN 48.3 41.6 47.9 41.2 17010 0.09 0.00 100 THU 00Z 25-JAN 50.7 47.7 48.7 47.9 20008 0.09 0.00 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6z NAM gets WNC in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 06z RGEM with another wet run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 06z GFS was a tiny bit better...looking like a 1"-2" event with some isolated higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.