AMZ8990 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc&rh=2018011412&fh=66&r=us_ov&dpdt= The Nam through 60 looks decent statewide. The totals aren't mind blowing, but it lays down 1-3 inches across the whole state.. now I know it's the NAM but it did very well with this last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc&rh=2018011412&fh=66&r=us_ov&dpdt= The Nam through 60 looks decent statewide. The totals aren't mind blowing, but it lays down 1-3 inches across the whole state.. now I know it's the NAM but it did very well with this last system. At higher than 10:1 ratio's there would be areas in of the forum especially upper cumberland plateau if the NAM were gospel that would be approaching 6". I saw a write up by OHX in their overnight discussion that really sets perspective. Snip from OHX overnight discussion. Quote The physical difference in a cold atmosphere between a dusting of snow and 2 inches of snow is small, making it difficult to accurately forecast each location`s snowfall with decimal point precision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Euro isn't looking bad at QPF. Seeing widespread .1 to .2 across the forum up to hour 57, not through the whole event yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Looks like a pretty good southern Arkansas event as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 12Z Euro qpf output. Basically everyone is at or above .1 some are closer or over .2 inches. Ratios can work well with that still looks like widespread 1-3 some folks could go higher in SW TN, N MS, and AR as well as upper cumberland, NE TN, and East Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Looks like most folks in Western forum and middle Forum will get the best benefit of ratios 15:1 on low end and 20:1 for many. East TN looks like we start at 10:1, then quickly rise to around 15:1 through the event. If Temps aren't modeled correctly we could all have better ratios than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 The Euro and NAM are very close to each other on this. The NAM has more qpf than the euro but that's often a NAM thing. It's looking more and more likely that Southern Arkansas, N.Miss, N. Alabama, NW Ga and all points north get at least 1/2 inch of snow, with 1-2 being common and some areas going over 3. That's with my standard of taking 33 percent off the NAM totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Slowly ticking up!! 0180114/15 UTC SREF Runs TYS - Avg 1.9", 12 runs with 2"+, 3 runs near 4.5" CHA - Avg 1.0", 7 runs with 2"+, 2 runs near 3" TRI - Avg 1.8", 8 runs with 2"+, 2 runs 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I agree with John's snow forecast above, nothing to add. Some NWP is trying to give Kentucky a little bit too, which is still 'points north.' NAM is probably too amped. One can just use its qpf and go 10:1 instead of the more likely 15-20. Euro output seems reasonable/accurate, but with less precision. Euro blanks CHA so probably a perfect prog. Just kidding! Many areas may only be a half inch to inch of pixie dust. Get into a band with decent dendrite growth, and 2 inches of fluff is possible. Roads will go quickly. And really GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 12z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Nice, I like the EPS. I believe that’s the best it’s looked so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 18z nam coming in lovely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 MRX going 1” south of 40 and 1To 1.5 north of 40. Higher amounts in the favored locations outside the valley. They like the NAM/Euro and acknowledges the increased QPF in all the mods. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Might be a tough call on schools Tuesday. I imagine they'll elect to just close for the day rather than deal with the crap show of having to get the busses moving around in that stuff mid day. That didn't work out very well last time a few years ago. Unlike last time, maybe they will actually salt the roads given the amount of advance notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 18z 12k NAM another nice run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Pivotal shows higher amounts on nam 18z then the 12z so looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 And 18z 3k NAM, more in line with MRX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Winter storm watches just went out in southwestern Ark, Northeren Lousiana, and a large portion of south central to eastern Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: And 18z 3k NAM, more in line with MRX: Big differences with the 12k and 3k though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I don’t think I’d be inclined to trade positions with the plateau area in this event. 12k shows a nice lollipop over John at 3-4 inches at 10:1 ratio. TRI’s numbers seem to have stayed consistent in the 18z runs, which kind of surprised me given the overall increases...are we getting downsloped a little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 18z RDPS is drier...says move along nothing to see lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I think the 12k overamps precip and the lower resolution tends to skew the maps sometimes. Definitely agree with John and MRX thinking on system. Plateau and favored up slow should do decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 18z GFS fast and dry 1-2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 With our luck this Winter, we will probably be Snow chasing..... I’m renting a bus and headed to Southern Ark, North, La! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 18z icon doesn’t tap the gulf at all; but develops the storm nice for north Carolina in later frames...a near dud for almost all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Difference in the models seem to be speed of the front shutting the moisture return down..18z GFS and NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bango said: 18z icon doesn’t tap the gulf at all; but develops the storm nice for north Carolina in later frames...a near dud for almost all of us Fear The Germans.......”model” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 The NAM3k was actually a big step towards the Euro and 12k. It was very dry otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Little disturbance today actually was able to produce flurries as far SE as Starksville, MS (fairly impressed). Unless something drastically changes on 00z runs, should see WWA start being issued later tonight across the forum area. I40 today was a mess between Little Rock and Memphis with just a dusting of snow due to cold surface temps. Even with the models with the lower moisture, it would be enough to cause problems on area roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Kasper said: Fear The Germans.......”model” The Germans overthink everything. Have you had a VW lately they fall apart because they have sensors that try to monitor everything. My daughters VW fell apart within a year of purchase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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