TellicoWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, John1122 said: The HRRR is not handling the initial band of snow very well at all. It keeps drying it out too fast. Per last hour there was supposed to be no snow in northern Middle Tn right now. So now it had to adjust that and shows barely any snow next hour. It keeps missing badly on what's actually happening. Yeah it's been doing that the entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, JCVol said: Just my guess because the latest forecast from WXSouth has the area at 1 inch or under...it looks to be losing some of the gulf moisture, it's not moving to the east, and temps have risen above freezing in areas It's been moving very slow all night and all morning. Slow movement is what you want. Temps are also not an issue. All the snow is behind the arctic front. My temp is falling through the 20s right now and it's in the 10s 30 miles north of me. Nashville is snowing and 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Hi res models are struggling. Obviously they are missing fronto-genesis, small short-waves, and/or other forcing. 6 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: Ok I'm lost why is this a swing and miss for valley can some one elaborate. You are not lost. Game on! 5 minutes ago, EastKnox said: The last couple of scans on the radar seem to dry out a bit. Hoping that is just temporary and it rebuilds soon. Mid morning pause was shown. Everything is fine. I'm the biggest skeptic on the board, but we need an It's Happening cartoon about now. Check short-wave on Satellite water vapor coming out of Mississippi, with more energy back in TX/LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 O One the bright side the Kids got a day off from school.Well it would be nice to know if this is a revised map because it has yesterday’s date on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Hi res models are struggling. Obviously they are missing fronto-genesis, small short-waves, and/or other forcing. You are not lost. Game on! Mid morning pause was shown. Everything is fine. I'm the biggest skeptic on the board, but we need an It's Happening cartoon about now. So its not a swing and miss for valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I like the 12z 32k nam, and in general, i feel like the nam has handled the storm the best, although no meso models have done well with this event for the reasons john outlined. Think the jury is out until we see what the radar looks like post pivot, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said: So its not a swing and miss for valley Jeff says no, but we need a It’s Happening Cartoon Now! Someone start the Thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCVol Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Kasper said: Jeff says no, but we need a It’s Happening Cartoon Now! Someone start the Thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 Ceilings have really lowered in Spring City, might ride up to Grandview and see if anything is on the plateau! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Started a thread for observations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 If you're on a computer, put your mouse on the eastern edge of the precip on the Nashville radar and put it in motion. It's moving east at probably 25 miles per hour by the look of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 MRX just updated saying everything is still a go. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Also, when snow is showing up over Fentress County on radar, you know it's rolling. It's one of the worst radar holes in the state, if not the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Hi res models are struggling. Obviously they are missing fronto-genesis, small short-waves, and/or other forcing. You are not lost. Game on! Mid morning pause was shown. Everything is fine. I'm the biggest skeptic on the board, but we need an It's Happening cartoon about now. Check short-wave on Satellite water vapor coming out of Mississippi, with more energy back in TX/LA. Hope you are right. GREAT win by your Jayhawks last night. You were the first person I thought of when I saw the news, lol. By the way, we are all hoping you redeem yourself here at KTRI after the last storm.. hahahahaha All kidding aside, your thoughts on our board are VERY much appreciated. Hope Chattanooga over performs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bango said: I like the 12z 32k nam, and in general, i feel like the nam has handled the storm the best, although no meso models have done well with this event for the reasons john outlined. Think the jury is out until we see what the radar looks like post pivot, All the models have done very poorly with the system, LMK had probably best write up overnight...they went with their best guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: If you're on a computer, put your mouse on the eastern edge of the precip on the Nashville radar and put it in motion. It's moving east at probably 25 miles per hour by the look of it. Last couple of scans appear that the eastward motion has begun again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattywarmnose Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Bring the snow!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 Flakes are starting to fall in Spring City! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 12z cmc and rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Last couple of scans appear that the eastward motion has begun again.Looks like the southern valley section is starting to push NE now. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: All the models have done very poorly with the system, LMK had probably best write up overnight...they went with their best guess. I agree, its not even been a playing catch up scenerio for the short term models, its almost a chunk them all and go by radar/waiting game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Kasper said: Flakes are starting to fall in Spring City! Knocking on Chattanoogas doorstep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I'm just across the lake from Spring City waiting on flakes still. I still feel good about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Major movement in last 20 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 A question for you more experienced guys/gals, where do we look downstream to check for stronger returns for east tn, (could we follow/expect strong developing returns upward from say...louisianna/bama coast)? Or is this a scenerio where you look for the general stream of moisture and hone in on your area to look for intensifying ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 It’s starting to look a little ragged to me on radar. Back to the SW, moisture seems to be drying up and breaking apart in Alabama. Hopefully, it will hold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: It’s starting to look a little ragged to me on radar. Back to the SW, moisture seems to be drying up and breaking apart in Alabama. Hopefully, it will hold together. I am thinking that was expected, as it pivots it reestablishes shortly after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: It’s starting to look a little ragged to me on radar. Back to the SW, moisture seems to be drying up and breaking apart in Alabama. Hopefully, it will hold together. You are correct..she's drying up boys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 JKL just upgraded their western counties to a Winter Storm Warning. This band just keeps overperforming in spots. There are 35 dbz returns starting to show up in tiny spots NE of Nashville, 35 dbz is more than 2 inches per hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Drying of bands and reformation will occur over and over in the line, that is normal, not to mention the best snows will be in the last bands of the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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