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January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event


Kasper

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6 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

I still don’t think that the HRRR is really picking up on all the returns.

Look at how quick the hrrr tries to break it down in two hours time...seems the radar is already proven it wrong, and given the strength it seems really wrong

C88ED851-58EF-44CE-A09D-940E716261E0.png

E9D0C682-AAB2-4B50-820C-DC8F9D22556B.png

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Look at how quick the hrrr tries to break it down in two hours time...seems the radar is already proven it wrong, and given the strength it seems really wrong
C88ED851-58EF-44CE-A09D-940E716261E0.thumb.png.75399e8bfe6bab5ee17e517528bd9e6b.png
E9D0C682-AAB2-4B50-820C-DC8F9D22556B.thumb.png.3e5dfb694434d64bdae66f30941bf924.png


Yep. The real time observation to look for is how well the line holds up crossing the Plateau and how long it gets held up by the Plateau. HRRR and NAM have it sitting there for a while before moving east.
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6 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

 


Yep. The real time observation to look for is how well the line holds up crossing the Plateau and how long it gets held up by the Plateau. HRRR and NAM have it sitting there for a while before moving east.

 

Its holding good on radar looks like snow almost to Oakridge. I think the models have missed this big time there not seeing the moisture. 

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3 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

Yep. The real time observation to look for is how well the line holds up crossing the Plateau and how long it gets held up by the Plateau. HRRR and NAM have it sitting there for a while before moving east.

As the radar goes onto the Plateau it is like it hits a wall and stops its eastern progression.

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Models are seeing the moisture, problem is they are drying the mid levels out to quickly. Good write-up from HUN disco:

 

One
caveat to this is how poorly models have handled the current band of
snow. With observed totals exceeding 3 inches in some areas of
western Tennessee, am generally inclined to believe that the models
are also overdoing the drying trend over the forecast area. However,
as the upper level jet becomes more oriented in a north- south
direction and lifts to the north, we may lose out on the enhanced
lift aloft.
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2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Models are seeing the moisture, problem is they are drying the mid levels out to quickly. Good write-up from HUN disco:

 


One
caveat to this is how poorly models have handled the current band of
snow. With observed totals exceeding 3 inches in some areas of
western Tennessee, am generally inclined to believe that the models
are also overdoing the drying trend over the forecast area. However,
as the upper level jet becomes more oriented in a north- south
direction and lifts to the north, we may lose out on the enhanced
lift aloft.

areas further south will have a better opportunity to realize deeper moisture.  Not sure yet how this translates east in TN, but holding out hope for an inch or two across the area, east of the plateau..  

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2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

areas further south will have a better opportunity to realize deeper moisture.  Not sure yet how this translates east in TN, but holding out hope for an inch or two across the area, east of the plateau..  

Most models show it intensify in east tn before it ends so we should get that 

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I'd like to see the JKL and OHX afd soon. MRX put theirs out but as always, it's woefully lacking on details compared to every other WFO in the country. It could be the blizzard of 93 redux and they'd put out a paragraph about it.

Can’t like this enough!!!!

In the meantime, I’m singing Tom Petty’s “waiting is the hardest part” while staring at a temperature gauge stuck on 34


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5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

areas further south will have a better opportunity to realize deeper moisture.  Not sure yet how this translates east in TN, but holding out hope for an inch or two across the area, east of the plateau..  

Depends on how quickly the lift pulls north for the southern valley. As it pulls north the line decays from south to north. 

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4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Depends on how quickly the lift pulls north for the southern valley. As it pulls north the line decays from south to north. 

Hopefully it holds off the northern progression.  There's a good line of precip extending all the way to Galveston, TX right now.

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