John1122 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 If the trajectory of the band continues to be oriented how it is, someone will get a major boost to accums as it works it's way slowly off to the southeast. All the models have it orienting much more north to south and when that happens it starts breaking down moisture transport too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Not bad for an initial 1"-2" forecast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I'd like to see the JKL and OHX afd soon. MRX put theirs out but as always, it's woefully lacking on details compared to every other WFO in the country. It could be the blizzard of 93 redux and they'd put out a paragraph about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 06z RGEM, it doesn't seem to be backing off its numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 06z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 New WWA coming from RDU, GSP, and TAE....at this rate whole SE will be an advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 JKL finally updated their AFD. Say to expect heavier totals than first thought, so those of us who live near the KY border in Tennessee or SWVa can probably expect similar weather. Quote The cold front should continue to slowly sag south across the area with the slow movement of the boundary and the post frontal band of snow slow due to the still digging shortwave. However, this shortwave should begin moving more to the east through this morning with the through trending toward more neutral. This should lead to the boundary continuing to slowly move east with a surface wave or two likely moving along it while deeper moisture persist much of the day across East KY lingering into the evening in the southeast. Also, a jet steak moving through the OH Valley to northeast should put much of the region in deeper lift when combined with the lift from the approaching shortwave. The forecast soundings trend closer to becoming isothermal nearer to -10C this morning and into the afternoon across the south and southeast. Thus, the combination of this, the deeper lift and substantial omega for a while in the DGZ will probably lead to higher snow to liquid ratios from later this morning into this evening and a bit more snow than the previous forecast. As the shortwave starts to move east and approach, the steadier moderate to at times heavy snow should continue pushing south and east, possibly not arriving at the VA border until as late as 10 AM. The steadier snow should end this morning near I-64 and north though the steadier snow will persist longer in the southeast, especially near to the VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Looks like it may finally be moving on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Radar still shows good moisture coming from gulf hope it helps up the totals for east tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Some WFO are saying totals up, some say totals down, some stay the same and OHX has chosen radio silence and apparently decided not to issue an AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Temps are rising in valley I'm up to 32 dew point 26 hope we don't get a warm nose . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Temps are rising in valley I'm up to 32 dew point 26 hope we don't get a warm nose .Column above too cold, warming in advance won't have an effect on the snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Seems hrrr is 4 hrs behind it shows snow not past Nashville for 4 more hours but on radar it's already past there and on plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Hrr also showing moisture plume shooting into the valley as the snow arrives could help bring up totals ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJacks Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Quick question: for hours, the precip band was barely moving...stuck in a more SW -> NE progression, but now it seems to be moving more east and picking up speed? Was hoping these dbz’s would last longer; not sure why they rush once they get south of LBL and east of the TN River. the upper trough is beginning to pivot. Yes, it will cause the band to move but also it is the pivoting that helps bring up moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattywarmnose Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Thought I wouldn’t show up? Here I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Hope everyone in middle and East Tennessee has fun with a daytime snow today. I'll have total accumulations for MBY shortly. Looks like snow will be tapering off for me in another hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Some of the weaker model runs began showing the precip field to deteriorate about now, or in the next hour or two, looks as robust as ever to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Still liking the SREFs... TYS CHA Tri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I still got sunshine in Loudon county in valley waiting for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said: I still got sunshine in Loudon county in valley waiting for snow Stupid sun low on the eastern horizon, doesn't it know to wait just a few more hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 When was the last time that the entire states of TN, AL, MS, and LA were under winter weather advisories and or Storm warnings simultaneously? I don’t know. I can’t remember anytime. And most of AR, KY, part of GA, NC, and SC, VA, and even FL are as well. Regardless of how much falls in any one given area, this is about as large of an area of the south that I can remember seeing covered. Image below is from Pivotal Weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Knoxtron said: Stupid sun low on the eastern horizon, doesn't it know to wait just a few more hours? that stupid sun has us above freezing at 33 and rising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Knoxtron said: Stupid sun low on the eastern horizon, doesn't it know to wait just a few more hours? That evil sun it always makes its appearance when the snow is late arriving it knows and is trying to raise our temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 40 minutes ago, Bango said: Some of the weaker model runs began showing the precip field to deteriorate about now, or in the next hour or two, looks as robust as ever to me. If the band of snow can hold together we should get a good snow let's hope it don't fall apart. To me it looks to be growing on radar anyone else see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: If the band of snow can hold together we should get a good snow let's hope it don't fall apart. I’m leaving Cleveland now headed toward Dayton, very thick overcast with haze to the West, be in Dayton for about an hour or so then off to Spring City! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Jon, reports? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 17 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: If the band of snow can hold together we should get a good snow let's hope it don't fall apart. To me it looks to be growing on radar anyone else see that. I noticed that the band seemed to be widening some across N MS and W TN, but in SE AR it was fading some. May just be normal ebb and flow, but it does seem to look pretty good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jed33 said: I noticed that the band seemed to be widening some across N MS and W TN, but in SE AR it was fading some. May just be normal ebb and flow, but it does seem to look pretty good right now. Still snowing steady in west Tn at my place. Got around 3-3 1/2 inches of new accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Radar Looks considerably more robust to me in roughly similiar frames,.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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