John1122 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: I think its getting safer to say 2-4 for the State of TN, any exceptions are likely to be few spots along southern border where could be less, and Western may over perform. I'd still say 1-3 with some who bonus and some who starve, as is the nature of these events. I always remove a certain percentage from clown maps. Though that occasionally busts in the other direction. A few years ago I got 6 inches from a high performance clipper that models struggled with as the storm moved SE. The RGEM was the only model that even got close and even it played catch up and never quite got what fell here. The HRRR and RAP were hot garbage for it and couldn't even initialize right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, TellicoWx said: Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but GEM is also known as GDPS, and RGEM is RDPS. Some people call the GEM, the CMC, but that's just the name of the orginaziation. That's correct. Many names for the two models. The Canadian, the GEM, the GGEM, the GDPS etc is the 240 hour model. RGEM, RDPS is the Canadian hi res model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but GEM is also known as GDPS, and RGEM is RDPS. Some people call the GEM, the CMC, but that's just the name of the orginaziation. I was never sure of the RGEM and RDPS were the same or not because the output of the 2 between Pivitol Weather and Tidbits look different, almost like RDPS might be a high res version of the RGEM like the difference between 12K and 32K NAM. I always prefered the RGEM from tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 LMK upgraded western areas to a Warning now, also mention they may need to expand eastward in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 Well, we now know the GFS is on crack, underperform much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 OHX upgraded western and northern counties to warning. Quote FXUS64 KOHX 160334 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 934 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Latest radar imagery shows snow has spread throughout our northwest counties with leading edge of snow approaching Nashville - a couple hours faster than guidance had previously suggested. Reports indicate 1 inch of snow has already fallen in Stewart County in the past 2 hours. Latest model guidance including the 18Z GFS, 00Z NAM, HRRR and RAP models indicate higher snow accumulations in much of the cwa, especially the northwest counties which will see snow for roughly another 12 hours or so. Based on this as well as coordination with surrounding offices, have upgraded some of our northwest counties to a Winter Storm Warning with 2 to 4 inches of snow now expected, with possibly higher amounts. The rest of the forecast area still falls into the 1 to 3 inch total snowfall range, where a Winter Weather Advisory will remain in place. Grids and zones have been updated with the new hazards and to begin snow a little faster in the northwest, but otherwise remain on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 From LMK, for the folks along TN/KY border: The NAM/GFS/RAP/HRRR indicate a weakening of 700mb/600mb frontogenetic forcing over the next 2-3 hours before ramping it up again after 06z over eastern/southern portions of the CWA. Theoretically, we should see radar reflectivities come down some during this timeframe and banding becoming more disorganized, with intensification of reflectivity after 06z and more organized banding structure. Right now the winter storm warning area highlights our best guess for where the potential banding will set up, though it may have to be expanded if this system continues to over-achieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, John1122 said: I'd still say 1-3 with some who bonus and some who starve, as is the nature of these events. I always remove a certain percentage from clown maps. Though that occasionally busts in the other direction. A few years ago I got 6 inches from a high performance clipper that models struggled with as the storm moved SE. The RGEM was the only model that even got close and even it played catch up and never quite got what fell here. The HRRR and RAP were hot garbage for it and couldn't even initialize right. The way things are going some will have 1-3 before midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 White House got upgraded to a winter storm warning. They say 2-4 inches with locally higher totals. I just got about 4 inches on Friday so no doubt this will be the quickest I have ever had 4 inch snow storms so close in time to eachother if this pans out. It also started snowing lightly about 30 minuets ago. Last years horrible winter is quickly turning into a distant memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 Sorry I can’t react to anyone’s post, I’ve exceeded my limit apparently! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Not much longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 WSW slowly tracking east across the mid state. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Pic from Big Sandy in Benton Co TN: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, TellicoWx said: Pic from Big Sandy in Benton Co TN: Nice size flakes, that was one of the things I was worried about was getting super fine snow. Bigger the flakes the faster it piles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, ShawnEastTN said: Nice size flakes, that was one of the things I was worried about was getting super fine snow. Bigger the flakes the faster it piles. I've always loved the fine flakes. That means its cold! The blizzard of 1993 had dime sized flakes here and it snowed 11 inches in 3 hours at one point with them! I do admit that I also enjoy silver dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Nice size flakes, that was one of the things I was worried about was getting super fine snow. Bigger the flakes the faster it piles. The snow I've been getting is wet and heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, John1122 said: I've always loved the fine flakes. That means its cold! The blizzard of 1993 had dime sized flakes here and it snowed 11 inches in 3 hours at one point with them! I do admit that I also enjoy silver dollars. I like dimes too, just not the straight up dust that it can snow for hours and virtually not accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Where is Flash? Radar looks good over him.... nice to see so many overperform west of here. Hope that translates east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Seen some discussion from various Mets about how the Hi-Res models are simply not seeing the moisture that is available with the system. Hopefully, that continues as it tracks east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Where is Flash? Radar looks good over him.... nice to see so many overperform west of here. Hope that translates east. He was on earlier, he mentioned it was starting to snow around his place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Did this system start sooner then pronged, not necessarily that the front is moving fast, but the models mis-time it a hair? The reason I ask is that most meso models I looked at were showing the current precip fields at 3 or 4 a.m,unless I read them wrong (rgem 0z)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Roads reportedly snow covered in Dickson and Sumner Co TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 We got bumped up overnight Tonight Snow. Low around 16. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Tuesday Snow, mainly before noon. High near 18. North northwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: We got bumped up overnight Tonight Snow. Low around 16. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Tuesday Snow, mainly before noon. High near 18. North northwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Hope you overperform, Jax. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I have a feeling that west TN is probably going to see 3-6 inches from this system overnight and into the morning. If areas around Paducah are already at 8” then some spots from Nashville to Memphis will see lollipops to 6. The radar looks great and the same direction of southwesterly flow will continue for west TN into the morning commute hours. Don’t look at the HRRR or other HI-RES models out west. They clearly are going to underperform from Nashville west. Just look at the radar and outside your window at this point and enjoy! I expect Winter Storm Warnings to move east all the way to Nashville. For eastern areas I think the 18z RGEM was too amped and the 0z RGEM is probably the more realistic scenario minus the weird snow hole it tries to depict over parts of the valley. The 18z RGEM actually cut off the 500 mb energy right over the TN Valley which no other model has shown so far. 0z RGEM does not cut off the 500 mb low and moves the energy thru slightly faster. This is the reason why the totals were so high on the 18z RGEM. I think a blend of the 0z NAM/0z RGEM is the way to go for the Plateau eastward toward the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 11" now reported in East Prairie MO, near KY/MO/TN line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, *Flash* said: I can vouch for that...granted it’s only a quarter inch. Same here, doesn't seem to be affecting traffic too much at the moment though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, 1234snow said: I have a feeling that west TN is probably going to see 3-6 inches from this system overnight and into the morning. If areas around Paducah are already at 8” then some spots from Nashville to Memphis will see lollipops to 6. The radar looks great and the same direction of southwesterly flow will continue for west TN into the morning commute hours. Don’t look at the HRRR or other HI-RES models out west. They clearly are going to underperform from Nashville west. Just look at the radar and outside your window at this point and enjoy! I expect Winter Storm Warnings to move east all the way to Nashville. For eastern areas I think the 18z RGEM was too amped and the 0z RGEM is probably the more realistic scenario minus the weird snow hole it tries to depict over parts of the valley. The 18z RGEM actually cut off the 500 mb energy right over the TN Valley which no other model has shown so far. 0z RGEM does not cut off the 500 mb low and moves the energy thru slightly faster. This is the reason why the totals were so high on the 18z RGEM. I think a blend of the 0z NAM/0z RGEM is the way to go for the Plateau eastward toward the valley. trained spotter reports of over a foot south of paducah, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just curious, but has anyone been able to find a model that initialized correct? I have looked at a bunch and they all seem to be missing what is happening at the surface.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 11" now reported in East Prairie MO, near KY/MO/TN line. trained spotter reports of over a foot south of paducah, wowForecast was for 1-2”. Has to be the biggest forecast bust I can remember! Radar still has returns over them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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