Kasper Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 On 1/14/2018 at 11:18 PM, bearman said: The Germans overthink everything. Have you had a VW lately they fall apart because they have sensors that try to monitor everything. My daughters VW fell apart within a year of purchase. Expand I feel your pain I made the mistake of buying a BMW once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 On 1/14/2018 at 9:30 PM, Bango said: TRI’s numbers seem to have stayed consistent in the 18z runs, which kind of surprised me given the overall increases...are we getting downsloped a little? Expand Downsloping shouldn’t be an issue with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 On 1/14/2018 at 11:48 PM, Math/Met said: Downsloping shouldn’t be an issue with this system. Expand Mathmet, thank you for your input. For you new folks, this is a meteorologist who is pretty much an expert on mountain wave events among other things. He knows how winds operate in the mountains. I keep saying this...we have great mets in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/14/2018 at 11:48 PM, Math/Met said: Downsloping shouldn’t be an issue with this system.Glad you’re on here. This might sound strange but going up the Camp Creek during a Mountain wave event is on my Weather bucket list. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just take a general average on the model qpf maps. None of them will be exact and will change from run to run for individual areas and back yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 12:04 AM, PowellVolz said: Glad you’re on here. This might sound strange but going up the Camp Creek during a Mountain wave event is on my Weather bucket list. . Expand I spent the night in a house near camp creek when I was younger, having never heard of mountain wave winds...I stuck my head out the window at least 4 times expecting a giant storm, as each gust sounded like the top was coming off the roof...pretty wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Models are missing the moisture in Ms,friend of mine in Philadelphia,Ms said they are having a snow shower going through right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dgx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Actually after further examination the HRRR did pick up on this,weak impulse by the looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Touchet Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 This looks like it’s becoming a significant event. I’ve been watching the models for a couple of days. Each run ups the precipitation. I think this will catch a lot of people by surprise because they are expecting wet snow where the roads are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/14/2018 at 11:54 PM, Carvers Gap said: Mathmet, thank you for your input. For you new folks, this is a meteorologist who is pretty much an expert on mountain wave events among other things. He knows how winds operate in the mountains. I keep saying this...we have great mets in this forum. Expand Thanks for the compliment. I've been less active on weather forums in recent years, but I still enjoy reading the discussions on this forum. There's a lot of great information here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 12:04 AM, PowellVolz said: Glad you’re on here. This might sound strange but going up the Camp Creek during a Mountain wave event is on my Weather bucket list. . Expand If you get the chance to experience one of the major events, then I think it would worth the trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Not sure whats going to happen.The shortwave in Ms around Philadelphia was stronger by the looks,even the disco in Jackson doesnt mention it on TAF's discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 1:49 AM, Touchet said: This looks like it’s becoming a significant event. I’ve been watching the models for a couple of days. Each run ups the precipitation. I think this will catch a lot of people by surprise because they are expecting wet snow where the roads are fine. Expand I agree, the widespread nature and cold conditions will cripple travel in the south, even with small amounts (if verified). It should have the net effect of a winter storm warning type of event, minus the duration etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJacks Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The NAM has been steadily increasing PWATS, the higher amounts still do not make it as far east as Alabama, but could be sign of more moisture avail than what it is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 00z NAM looks better at 500mb, better moisture transport by a bit too. QPF field is better, larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 2:22 AM, John1122 said: 00z NAM looks better at 500mb, better moisture transport by a bit too. QPF field is better, larger. Expand Looks good for you,typical upslope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 2:24 AM, jaxjagman said: Looks good for you,typical upslope Expand I was actually toggled to the wrong map, it actually looks pretty similar to 18z overall. Still expect 1/2 to 3 inches for the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 2:26 AM, John1122 said: I was actually toggled to the wrong map, it actually looks pretty similar to 18z overall. Still expect 1/2 to 3 inches for the forum. Expand Cold air is diving down with vengeance,expect to still see some decent ratios with your orographics i think you might be in the sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 2:10 AM, RichardJacks said: The NAM has been steadily increasing PWATS, the higher amounts still do not make it as far east as Alabama, but could be sign of more moisture avail than what it is showing. Expand Thanks for the post, welcome! Always good to see a professional take the time to drop some knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 0Z NAM is way slower in timing.... Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12k NAM trend increasing moisture return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 NAM lost some qpf overall that run by the end of it. Kinda surprised me because it was similar or maybe even better at 500mb than prior runs. Especially dropped QPF in the Northeastern areas and some western areas. All in all still similar thoughts. There will be areas of 2-3 inches with maybe a few who pass 3, but by in large most will be in the .5 to 2 inch range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 2:40 AM, John1122 said: NAM lost some qpf overall that run by the end of it. Kinda surprised me because it was similar or maybe even better at 500mb than prior runs. Especially dropped QPF in the Northeastern areas and some western areas. All in all still similar thoughts. There will be areas of 2-3 inches with maybe a few who pass 3, but by in large most will be in the .5 to 2 inch range. Expand Agree! SREF means fell too although marginally for TYS and CHA. Up everywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 any way to post a map of this perhaps? thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 2:39 AM, TellicoWx said: 12k NAM trend increasing moisture return Expand I was about to post the 700mb humidity. That's the snow growth zone as a rule and it's great when you see humidity above 90 percent there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 2:40 AM, John1122 said: NAM lost some qpf overall that run by the end of it. Kinda surprised me because it was similar or maybe even better at 500mb than prior runs. Especially dropped QPF in the Northeastern areas and some western areas. All in all still similar thoughts. There will be areas of 2-3 inches with maybe a few who pass 3, but by in large most will be in the .5 to 2 inch range. Expand Same here, thought it.was going to be a better run...not quite sure what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 As Richard mentioned, pwats are increasing. The .5 line never made it into Tennessee last run, this run at hour 45 it's into the central Valley from Chattanooga towards Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 2:45 AM, John1122 said: I was about to post the 700mb humidity. That's the snow growth zone as a rule and it's great when you see humidity above 90 percent there. Expand Old friend taught me a long time ago to watch the 700mb maps lol. Just looking at 3k PWAT trend, you can also see a subtle trend increase on it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 When you run a longer trend on the 12k NAM, it looks as if it is slowly digging the trough further SSW, which slows the front allowing a little better moisture return each run. Question is it a bias of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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