allgame830 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Dude you need to give it a rest. Look at the snowfall maps. There could also be a warm layer in there somewhere that you wouldn't see without looking at the soundings. If your basing your thinking solely on the snowmaps u will fall flat on your face... have to look at the overall picture here. Anybody north of say Upper Manhattan/Bronx area will see 3+... once north of 287 in Westchester the amounts will probably double. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Look at the snowfall maps ? I will never take you seriously again / no one should. THESE ARE THE LEVELS /YOU DON`T USE SOME ALGO PRECIP GRID TO MAKE A FORECAST Hour 48 .3 850 -4 925 - 2 BL 32 DP 31 what layer is warm there WHAT LAYER ? Dude , no one should ever view you an even a passable analyst in here after that. I was trying to dumb it down for ya. Enjoy your snow or rain or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Really need a sounding for the Ukie. It's hard to tell but could be a rain to snow for NYC on the Ukie but mostly rain. North and west of NYC is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: If your basing your thinking solely on the snowmaps u will fall flat on your face... have to look at the overall picture here. Anybody north of say Upper Manhattan/Bronx area will see 3+... once north of 287 in Westchester the amounts will probably double. Anyone that knows me knows that I think snowfall maps are a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 euro even wetter for interior, warning snow entire 84 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: I was trying to dumb it down for ya. Enjoy your snow or rain or whatever. I really don't think you need to dumb it down for PB I am pretty sure he is more than sufficient in analyzing what the models show and don't show as of yet.... have fun making those forecasts based solely on snow maps because you will probably be wrong 9 out of 10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Anyone that knows me knows that I think snowfall maps are a joke. Ya I've been on this board back to the days of eastern ..... and i remember you having stated that before ..... then why are you referring to the snowfall maps in response to PB post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: I was trying to dumb it down for ya. Enjoy your snow or rain or whatever. You were given the actual soundings and instead of forecasting for it , you told everyone to look at the snowfall maps and now you don`t use snowfall maps. Then after seeing the soundings you post " there`s a warm layer somewhere " I asked you to find me the warm layer 700 ? 850 ? 925 ? BL ? Come on Mr, I don`t use snowfall maps , find us the warm layer as to why on a NE wind the soundings I gave you at hour 48 at KNYC is not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: euro even wetter for interior, warning snow entire 84 corridor .8 ish for u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 NJwx85 is the king of saying “I don’t use snowfall maps” and then basing his analysis off of snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: Since the upgrade we are having some issues. Please PM "Wow". ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Ya I've been on this board back to the days of eastern ..... and i remember you having stated that before ..... then why are you referring to the snowfall maps in response to PB post. I go back to the Eastern days as well. PB takes every marginal event and makes a case as to why the models are wrong and a snowier outcome is the correct one. I conduct my own analysis and when necessary post why I am skeptical. I have posted my reasoning as to why I think the South facing shore of the five boroughs as well as much of Long Island and coastal NJ is in trouble with this event. I wouldn't even be surprised if I mixed up here. If people want to disagree that's fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Dude you need to give it a rest. Look at the snowfall maps. There could also be a warm layer in there somewhere that you wouldn't see without looking at the soundings. 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Anyone that knows me knows that I think snowfall maps are a joke. This genuinely confuses me Yanks. I've been on the boards with you since the days of the Bill Evans forum and have always thought you were a respectable poster, but why should anyone look at "a joke" when trying to nail this down? Bottom line: N&W crowd is in for a nice event in the midst of a "thaw." We coasties are riding the line, but potentially might be in for a nice surprise. West trends late in the game during past storms this season gives me some hope here on LI, as does Paul's analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: NJwx85 is the king of saying “I don’t use snowfall maps” and then basing his analysis off of snowfall maps. Like anything else, they can be useful at times. In this case, models are picking up on something which is causing less snowfall Southeast of the city. That something is an initially warm surface. If you want to ignore it, do so at your own risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Eduardo said: This genuinely confuses me Yanks. I've been on the boards with you since the days of the Bill Evans forum and have always thought you were a respectable poster, but why should anyone look at "a joke" when trying to nail this down? Bottom line: N&W crowd is in for a nice event in the midst of a "thaw." We coasties are riding the line, but potentially might be in for a nice surprise. West trends late in the game during past storms this season gives me some hope here on LI, as does Paul's analysis. Snowfall maps are a joke. They aren't to be taken literal. However when every single model is showing basically the same thing, it's a sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I looked at the weather.us outputs, and 925 temps look toasty for most of the good precip from the city on east this run. If it’s near zero that’s fine, but the Euro has it at 2-4C. That’s enough to melt the snow before it makes it to the ground. The 925 low goes right over my head and then into SE CT, and for much of the time those winds come from the south or east. That tells me all I need to know. The 2/13/14 storm will be the last time I ever underestimate warmth in that layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Like anything else, they can be useful at times. In this case, models are picking up on something which is causing less snowfall Southeast of the city. That something is an initially warm surface. If you want to ignore it, do so at your own risk. It’s really strange to me. In most of the numerical guidance the T/Td spread is good enough that except maybe central to eastern LI should be snow. The wind is simply too light and it’s ESE but only for a short time and mostly before precip falls. I’m not sure how it would be warm enough for rain anywhere in the Metro or most of Nassau if the rates were even borderline decent. You usually need really deep strong South or east flow which is missing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: It’s really strange to me. In most of the numerical guidance the T/Td spread is good enough that except maybe central to eastern LI should be snow. The wind is simply too light and it’s ESE but only for a short time and mostly before precip falls. I’m not sure how it would be warm enough for rain anywhere in the Metro or most of Nassau if the rates were even borderline decent. You usually need really deep strong South or east flow which is missing Agreed, I would be shocked for anyone NW of NYC (especially GSP) to see any appreciable rain/mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Euro is way further north west than the other models. Might be too amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 That being said Manhattan and the Bronx are just over zero with 925 temps, maybe that can still support snow. I just know that by me and out into Suffolk, that’s awful for snow. And the heaviest precip does stay west and north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I looked at the weather.us outputs, and 925 temps look toasty for most of the good precip from the city on east this run. If it’s near zero that’s fine, but the Euro has it at 2-4C. That’s enough to melt the snow before it makes it to the ground. The 925 low goes right over my head and then into SE CT, and for much of the time those winds come from the south or east. That tells me all I need to know. The 2/13/14 storm will be the last time I ever underestimate warmth in that layer. At hour 48 - 925s are -1 in L/B and the BL is 33 with .3 falling. I think once east of Nassau County that time frame they are have an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: Agreed, I would be shocked for anyone NW of NYC (especially GSP) to see any appreciable rain/mix If the Euro is right they are mostly rain, but if any other model is then probably not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 crazy how the models have been this year---they see it far in advance, then days later they lose it,,and then 24 hours or so before they find it again, just weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Maybe the Euro is too amped as others are saying. This run is awful even for the Boston area down to PVD. That area and SE MA are mostly rain, and face a nasty dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Maybe the Euro is too amped as others are saying. This run is awful even for the Boston area down to PVD. That area and SE MA are mostly rain, and face a nasty dryslot. ill take the euro, hope its right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro has a slightly stronger WAR than the other models. The stronger WAR idea is almost always right these days, so that’s one for the Euro output for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Sorry, what is WAR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 West Atlantic Ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, sferic said: Sorry, what is WAR? The better question is what is it good for, and I have heard absolutely nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The better question is what is it good for, and I have heard absolutely nothing. It would provide more amplitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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