PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 This is a 4 to 8 inch snowstorm per the UKEMT . Rates to that extent cool the column. Again , this is still trending S . 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Why are wx.graphics maps ( free ) not showing up in here ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: This is a 4 to 8 inch snowstorm per the UKEMT . Rates to that extent cool the column. Again , this is still trending S . 0z 12z You’re really banking on that precip shield digging South and clipping Long Island. Models could easily be overdone South of the city today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: You’re really banking on that precip shield digging South and clipping Long Island. Models could easily be overdone South of the city today. 0z last night The models are catching to a stronger WAR and bringing the energy up and not out. The A/F gets to the coast in time for this is start in CNJ and SNE like it did yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Honestly I would be surprised for anyone from NYC N/W to see anything but snow, maybe some snow will be wasted in extreme E NJ, NYC, etc., but I just cant see much mix/rain NW of there with this set up (arctic air in place, no wind of the ocean, low off the coast, most precip on the front or behind, etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 It is not trending south. Trends in the last 24 hours are for a slower and more moist system that is closer to the coast. Forecast soundings suggest to me this won't take long to flip to snow, even at JFK and most of Long Island. It is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: It is not trending south. Trends in the last 24 hours are for a slower and more moist system that is closer to the coast. Forecast soundings suggest to me this won't take long to flip to snow, even at JFK and most of Long Island. It is See the UKMET precip shield , that west trend is allowing the neg to snow further south. I have been on the west trend for 5 days Now go look at the precip on the GFS from 12z yesterday goes from nothing in N/E SW bending into NNJ That`s South with the .4 amounts / not to DC or Philly but it will start in CNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 From Intellicast, their radar in motion: http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just amazing that models outside of 48 hours are essentially useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Models are rightfully keying in on that warm tongue for heat release and the location of initial development. There have even been a few thunderstorms east of the Outer Banks this morning. Otherwise, most of this system involves that weak low throwing Atlantic moisture up over the cold dome, as the upper jet structure isn't entirely favorable for cyclogenesis until the low is way up in Canada. Mod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: EURO. And...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: And...? Around a foot in northwest CT and the Hudson valley/Catskill region with a sharp cutoff around the Bronx. Alot less on long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Don't care about the mid-levels. It's the BL which has always been the issue. What exactly are you seeing in the bL in that sounding. That is a wet snow sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, seanick said: Around a foot in northwest CT and the Hudson valley/Catskill region with a sharp cutoff around the Bronx. Alot less on long Island. I doubt the coast sees mostly rain I have a good feeling about this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 How much QPF does the EURO show for NE NJ/NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, seanick said: Around a foot in northwest CT and the Hudson valley/Catskill region with a sharp cutoff around the Bronx. Alot less on long Island. Thanks. I'm in mid hudson valley so temps are no concern for me but I heard it was pretty warm for coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 NYC is not all rain EURO/ plug in the NAM at 42 and you are fine. 42 is one tick away KNYC Hour 42 .3 850 -3 925 0 BL 34 DP 33 Hour 48 .3 850 -4 925 - 2 BL 32 DP 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: NYC is not all rain EURO/ plug in the NAM at 42 and you are fine. 42 is one tick away KNYC Hour 42 .3 850 -3 925 0 BL 34 DP 33 Hour 48 .3 850 -4 925 - 2 BL 32 DP 31 The EURO is showing .6" QPF for NYC isnt that bump up from last run?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The Euro is weak with the over running and more robust with the surface low, that's why precip is so light over the West and heavier for the far interior and New England. Much of what you see here is rain or a mix outside of the area of purple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: How much QPF does the EURO show for NE NJ/NYC? not much - Euro shows rain to start south of I-80 and total snowfall south of I -80 an inch or so - North of I-80 amounts increase significantly every mile north you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: The Euro is weak with the over running and more robust with the surface low, that's why precip is so light over the West and heavier for the far interior and New England. Much of what you see here is rain or a mix outside of the area of purple. This is a mix ? KNYC Hour 48 .3 850 -4 925 - 2 BL 32 DP 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The Euro isn’t seeing the coastal enhancement of precip the GFS has at all. Most of it’s well inland. I think we need heavier precip where I am to be confident that it’s snow. This would probably be rainy/showery stuff for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: This is a mix ? KNYC Hour 48 .3 850 -4 925 - 2 BL 32 DP 31 Dude you need to give it a rest. Look at the snowfall maps. There could also be a warm layer in there somewhere that you wouldn't see without looking at the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, jm1220 said: The Euro isn’t seeing the coastal enhancement of precip the GFS has at all. Most of it’s well inland. I think we need heavier precip where I am to be confident that it’s snow. This would probably be rainy/showery stuff for LI. The strongest lift is over the interior even on the GFS. The difference is that the GFS and NAM eventually pull that a bit South because of the stronger SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, jm1220 said: The Euro isn’t seeing the coastal enhancement of precip the GFS has at all. Most of it’s well inland. I think we need heavier precip where I am to be confident that it’s snow. This would probably be rainy/showery stuff for LI. .5 is showery ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 41 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Why are wx.graphics maps ( free ) not showing up in here ? Since the upgrade we are having some issues. Please PM "Wow". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Dude you need to give it a rest. Look at the snowfall maps. There could also be a warm layer in there somewhere that you wouldn't see without looking at the soundings. I would like if you presented some hard evidence of what you have been preaching here lately Yanksfan……….not saying you will be wrong ……. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Dude you need to give it a rest. Look at the snowfall maps. There could also be a warm layer in there somewhere that you wouldn't see without looking at the soundings. Look at the snowfall maps ? I will never take you seriously again / no one should. THESE ARE THE LEVELS /YOU DON`T USE SOME ALGO PRECIP GRID TO MAKE A FORECAST Hour 48 .3 850 -4 925 - 2 BL 32 DP 31 what layer is warm there WHAT LAYER ? Dude , no one should ever view you an even a passable analyst in here after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, NEG NAO said: I would like if you presented some hard evidence of what you have been preaching here lately Yanksfan………. I'm not preaching anything. I speak objectively. I'm sorry if it's not what some posters want to hear. If all the models are showing a sharp cutoff on the snowfall close to the city then it's probably safe to assume that it is correct. As the SLP pulls away temps crash and everyone ends as a period of snow. I have never argued against that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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