NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The Hi res NAM is 31 You cherry picked the model with the weakest warm air advection. Even the RGEM shows how the city will be split from South the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: You cherry picked the model with the weakest warm air advection. Even the RGEM shows how the city will be split from South the North. That shows cold enough temps for the area besides LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You cherry picked the model with the weakest warm air advection. Even the RGEM shows how the city will be split from South the North. Hour 48 KNYC 850 -4 925 - 2 BL 34/32 NAM IS 31 NE WIND Rain ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The other issue on the gfs is you have heavy precip to the nw and east of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: That shows cold enough temps for the area besides LI My argument from the beginning is that Queens, Brooklyn and SI will taint, with the exception of Northern Queens. I've never argued that it wouldn't be mostly frozen or a mix for Manhattan or the Bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 1" or less city South and east. 4 to 8 just 20 miles north and west I really don't see how folks like us see much out of this. You're a little west of me and literally the mountains on 22 could snow while we rain and sleet 10 mins away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Hour 48 KNYC 850 -4 925 - 2 BL 34/32 NAM IS 31 NE WIND Rain ? The BL is going to be 34-35 on the South facing coast, and for coastal NJ. While you're certainly entitled to your analysis, I disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Hour 48 KNYC 850 -4 925 - 2 BL 34/32 NAM IS 31 NE WIND Rain ? If the wind becomes NE that would likely mean more frozen precip. But I'm not much in the game anyway for this one, it's very very borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, weatherpruf said: I really don't see how folks like us see much out of this. You're a little west of me and literally the mountains on 22 could snow while we rain and sleet 10 mins away. I've never really experienced that. Usually east of 95 is the cutoff in these situations, like trenton to perth amboy. Plus the heaviest is at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: My argument from the beginning is that Queens, Brooklyn and SI will taint, with the exception of Northern Queens. I've never argued that it wouldn't be mostly frozen or a mix for Manhattan or the Bronx. In these situations I usually stay snow longer or change over faster than Anthony and I’m in Northern Brooklyn. Looking at soundings it stays below freezing except right at the surface here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: And this illustrates what I mentioned before. 5 inches on CT coast with 1 on LI. Dividing line is Long Island Sound. Could be paste job. Have seen it snow heavy at 35 before (1 ft. In Feb of 95 with temp of 35) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Cmon fellas, why are you bickering? PB has been on top of this since day 1. So what if the models show marginal Temps? Since when do we live and die by that? How many times have the models corrected themselves this year within 24 hours?we have also watched it snow with marginal Temps many times in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Stormlover74 said: I've never really experienced that. Usually east of 95 is the cutoff in these situations, like trenton to perth amboy. Plus the heaviest is at night Nighttime makes a difference to be sure. In small events, i have driven up to Warren and its been snowing when I got there while it was raining on 22, and was still raining when i got back. This happens in piddly events, not so much in big ones ( this seems piddly in my parts right now, but seeing PB bullish always gets my attention ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, seanick said: Cmon fellas, why are you bickering? PB has been on top of this since day 1. So what if the models show marginal Temps? Since when do we live and die by that? How many times have the models corrected themselves this year within 24 hours?ww have also watched it snow with marginal Temps many times in the past. I have seen it snow 7 inches in April in marginal temps....heavy wet paste. With the daffodils sticking up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Nighttime makes a difference to be sure. In small events, i have driven up to Warren and its been snowing when I got there while it was raining on 22, and was still raining when i got back. This happens in piddly events, not so much in big ones ( this seems piddly in my parts right now, but seeing PB bullish always gets my attention ) Yeah with an elevation type event Warren being at 500 ft can help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Ed going bold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ed going bold Well it wouldn't surprise me either, if he means places like Highpoint. But it sure would surprise a lot of other people. Remember, we have a lot of different geography in a small area; people commute to work areas that are far from home, an hour or more, and the weather conditions are different. Hey, on 2/6/10 I had about 3 inches; an hour from me had 2 feet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ed going bold I'd be happy with 4-6 up our way. What's your thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The BL is going to be 34-35 on the South facing coast, and for coastal NJ. While you're certainly entitled to your analysis, I disagree. Yeah it may rain on the beach but that's about it if that thermal profile verified. 34 at the surface, at night when all other layers are sub-freezing? Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: I'd be happy with 4-6 up our way. What's your thinking? 3-6” Lollies if 4-8” in and I84c mid in NWCT/Western MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 3-6” Lollies if 4-8” in and I84c mid in NWCT/Western MA Yup I will take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 31 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Yea I gotta agree with PB here, The dews look good and along an arctic front like this the cold can come in like a wedge right "underneath" any warm layer. Imagine driving a doorjam into a door swinging shut, it's going to stop that door and that wedge will hold it. I can't argue against a strong cold front coming in like this, with increasing precip rates and favorable dewpoints, I can't see how this is mostly rain for any of these areas. Despite a SW flow initially, it wouldn't take even the weakest of lows off the coast to be able to moderate the potential for increasing BL temperatures. Hey Jets , I agree and my argument is this is not a finished product. Just look at what this looked like 24 hours ago. The guidance is still looking for exact location of the energy on the boundary. When low level cold air drives into the center the mid layers are the coldest in the guidance at a distance sometimes and then the model realizes the .5 QPF is enough to cool the B/L. 700/850/925/DPs are all below freezing. When a model goes from 1 to 2 to 4 to 8 in 24 hours , you have to assume it`s not done correcting and with 48 hours to go the B/L from CNJ across LI will be the last to correct. I do like the higher QPF idea away from the coastal plain but that still means that 4 could happen on the coast and 8 inland and that`s more of function of more water in those areas as the front gets hung up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The earlier low development and favorable track on the GFS are encouraging to me, I’m not too concerned about the surface temps on it-those are often wrong. If precip is heavy enough it should bring cold air down for snow even near the coast. If it’s the light, showery stuff advertised earlier, it would likely be rain or nonaccumulating slop. I’m still not that enthused for my backyard but the GFS would be a step in the right direction. Should be a decent event for the northern suburbs and maybe into NYC if temps are cool enough and there’s enough precip down here. Some spots north of the city will probably reach 6”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 19 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah it may rain on the beach but that's about it if that thermal profile verified. 34 at the surface, at night when all other layers are sub-freezing? Snow. 34 would be snow if all layers above are cool, and again the GFS is often too warm with the boundary layer in these situations especially if precip is mod to heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just remember that since it's upgrade, the gfs warm coastal bias...every snow map it shows LI and nearby coastal locations as if they were under water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 NWS, for New Yor, NY ~ duration and snow accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 For reference, here's the 12z RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Sucks that we’ve had all this cold and this is what we have to be dealing with now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said: Sucks that we’ve had all this cold and this is what we have to be dealing with now I don't think anyone N/W of the GSP has to worry about anything other then snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: I don't think anyone N/W of the GSP has to worry about anything other then snow... I would say north and west of I-287 for anything other than snow at this juncture based on 12z data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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