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1/16-17 Anafrontal/Coastal Low Snows Disco/Obs


Zelocita Weather

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

That shows cold enough temps for the area besides LI

My argument from the beginning is that Queens, Brooklyn and SI will taint, with the exception of Northern Queens.

I've never argued that it wouldn't be mostly frozen or a mix for Manhattan or the Bronx.

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

I really don't see how folks like us see much out of this. You're a little west of me and literally the mountains on 22 could snow while we rain and sleet 10 mins away. 

I've never really experienced that. Usually east of 95 is the cutoff in these situations, like trenton to perth amboy. Plus the heaviest is at night

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

My argument from the beginning is that Queens, Brooklyn and SI will taint, with the exception of Northern Queens.

I've never argued that it wouldn't be mostly frozen or a mix for Manhattan or the Bronx.

In these situations I usually stay snow longer or change over faster than Anthony and I’m in Northern Brooklyn. Looking at soundings it stays below freezing except right at the surface here

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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

I've never really experienced that. Usually east of 95 is the cutoff in these situations, like trenton to perth amboy. Plus the heaviest is at night

Nighttime makes a difference to be sure. In small events, i have driven up to Warren and its been snowing when I got there while it was raining on 22, and was still raining when i got back. This happens in piddly events, not so much in big ones ( this seems piddly in my parts right now, but seeing PB bullish always gets my attention )

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Just now, seanick said:

Cmon fellas, why are you bickering? PB has been on top of this since day 1. So what if the models show marginal Temps? Since when do we live and die by that? How many times have the models corrected themselves this year within 24 hours?ww have also watched it snow with marginal Temps many times in the past. 

I have seen it snow 7 inches in April in marginal temps....heavy wet paste. With the daffodils sticking up....

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1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Nighttime makes a difference to be sure. In small events, i have driven up to Warren and its been snowing when I got there while it was raining on 22, and was still raining when i got back. This happens in piddly events, not so much in big ones ( this seems piddly in my parts right now, but seeing PB bullish always gets my attention )

Yeah with an elevation type event Warren being at 500 ft can help

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Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Ed going bold 

44DADB25-A06C-4F3B-BD83-9CBE43F8BE07.jpeg

Well it wouldn't surprise me either, if he means places like Highpoint. But it sure would surprise a lot of other people. Remember, we have a lot of different geography in a small area; people commute to work areas that are far from home, an hour or more, and the weather conditions are different. Hey, on 2/6/10 I had about 3 inches; an hour from me had 2 feet....

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12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The BL is going to be 34-35 on the South facing coast, and for coastal NJ. While you're certainly entitled to your analysis, I disagree. 

Yeah it may rain on the beach but that's about it if that thermal profile verified. 34 at the surface, at night when all other layers are sub-freezing? Snow. 

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31 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Yea I gotta agree with PB here,

The dews look good and along an arctic front like this the cold can come in like a wedge right "underneath" any warm layer. Imagine driving a doorjam into a door swinging shut, it's going to stop that door and that wedge will hold it. I can't argue against a strong cold front coming in like this, with increasing precip rates and favorable dewpoints, I can't see how this is mostly rain for any of these areas.

Despite a SW flow initially, it wouldn't take even the weakest of lows off the coast to be able to moderate the potential for increasing BL temperatures.

Hey Jets , I agree and my argument is this is not a finished product. Just look at what this looked like 24 hours ago.

The guidance is still looking for exact location of the energy on the boundary.  When low level cold air drives into the center the mid layers are the coldest in the guidance at a distance sometimes and then the model realizes the .5 QPF is enough to cool the B/L.

 

700/850/925/DPs  are all below freezing. When a model goes from 1 to 2 to 4 to 8 in 24 hours , you have to assume it`s not done correcting and with 48 hours to go the B/L from CNJ across LI will be the last to correct. 

 

I do like the higher QPF idea away from the coastal plain but that still means that 4 could happen on the coast and 8 inland and that`s more of function of more water in those areas as the front gets hung up. 

 

gfs_asnow_neus_15.png

 

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The earlier low development and favorable track on the GFS are encouraging to me, I’m not too concerned about the surface temps on it-those are often wrong. If precip is heavy enough it should bring cold air down for snow even near the coast. If it’s the light, showery stuff advertised earlier, it would likely be rain or nonaccumulating slop. I’m still not that enthused for my backyard but the GFS would be a step in the right direction. 

Should be a decent event for the northern suburbs and maybe into NYC if temps are cool enough and there’s enough precip down here. Some spots north of the city will probably reach 6”. 

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19 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah it may rain on the beach but that's about it if that thermal profile verified. 34 at the surface, at night when all other layers are sub-freezing? Snow. 

34 would be snow if all layers above are cool, and again the GFS is often too warm with the boundary layer in these situations especially if precip is mod to heavy. 

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