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1/16-17 Anafrontal/Coastal Low Snows Disco/Obs


Zelocita Weather

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9 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

This is an arctic front with a wave on it.

This will snow into coastal NJ and onto LI.

The guidance is slowly bringing the heaviest axis down from C New England where it had it yesterday to just N og NYC and by tomorrow it will be laying up the I95 corridor.

The 3k NAM is already showing you a cold boundary.

The S flow is ahead of the front,  but the winds switch and the entire later cools from 850 ( which it's already -4 ) and then the 925s sweep east.

 

This accumulates right up 95 as well as the coast 

It's a classic SWFE and the only reason the mid-levels don't completely torch is because of the developing SLP. Once that develops, it will gradually switch everyone over to snow as it pulls away. That's why models are showing 4-8" North and West and 1-3" for the coast.

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34 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The wind is coming straight off the ocean, and while it has been cold, it will severely limit snow chances on the South facing shore of LI and probably in coastal Queens and Brooklyn as well. This is the type of system where Central Park records 3" and JFK sees less than half that.

And in the areas just west of Raritan Bay and probably the bayshore of SI, seen this repeatedly over the years. Of course these days all kinds of weird stuff happens so . I'd never write anything off.

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1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

And in the areas just west of Raritan Bay and probably the bayshore of SI, seen this repeatedly over the years. Of course these days all kinds of weird stuff happens so . I'd never write anything off.

I'll take a repeat of 1/23/15 5" pastejob or 2/22/08. Both were heavy wet snow events but with some mixing at the end

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

GFS is coming in more amped

 

This is going to be a very good run for inland areas

Heavier precip over Long Island, but BL is warm. Classic boundary getting hung up near the Hudson. This use to happen all the time and is more in line with long term climo vs the last 20 years.

gfs_T2m_neus_10.png

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's a classic SWFE and the only reason the mid-levels don't completely torch is because of the developing SLP. Once that develops, it will gradually switch everyone over to snow as it pulls away. That's why models are showing 4-8" North and West and 1-3" for the coast.

The models ? Where was it`s 4 to 8 when I have been calling for that over the past week ? 

 

And I am telling  you the models are still wrong , this is not finished correcting.  It is an anafront with a wave on it , with low level cold air an driving the column down to the surface.

 

 I have been on this since I posted on it Jan 9 and no where on the models did 4 to 8 show up N and W and now it does.

 

The cold layer collapses in to the NEG . 

 

Even the GFS sees it / follow the 3k NAM. 

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1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

The models ? Where was it`s 4 to 8 when I have been calling for that over the past week ? 

 

And I am telling  you the models are still wrong , this is not finished correcting.  It is an anafront with a wave on it , with low level cold air an driving the column down to the surface.

 

 I have been on this since I posted on it Jan 9 and no where on the models did 4 to 8 show up N and W and now it does.

 

The cold layer collapses in to the NEG . 

 

Even the GFS sees it / follow the 3k NAM. 

LOL

I just posted the GFS hour 54 temps. By hour 60, the line has collapsed East but precip is rapidly ending.

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Just now, Snow88 said:

I still dont think this is mainly rain for the city

I am with PB on this one

 

Mainly rain for Staten Island, Southern Queens and most of Brooklyn. Northern Queens, Bronx and upper Manhattan could see double what the aforementioned areas receive. 

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Don't care about the mid-levels. It's the BL which has always been the issue. 

It's not like its 37 degrees - it's right around freezing at the surface....with all levels above sufficiently cold enough for snow. It might be wet snow that doesn't accumulate but I don;t think it's just plain rain, based on the thermal profile - it could be for areas like JFK, Woodmere (where I am) and Long Beach but I doubt the city is rain

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1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

It`s - 4 at 850 on a NE wind and you are looking at a precip grid ? 

 

Dude , is this your 1st time doing this ? 

gfs_mslp_wind_neus_9.png

 

Look at the DP s

5a5ccd39ae79a.png

5a5ccd22c3e20.png

 

Yea I gotta agree with PB here,

The dews look good and along an arctic front like this the cold can come in like a wedge right "underneath" any warm layer. Imagine driving a doorjam into a door swinging shut, it's going to stop that door and that wedge will hold it. I can't argue against a strong cold front coming in like this, with increasing precip rates and favorable dewpoints, I can't see how this is mostly rain for any of these areas.

Despite a SW flow initially, it wouldn't take even the weakest of lows off the coast to be able to moderate the potential for increasing BL temperatures.

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