winterwx21 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z RGEM totals Keep in mind this stops at hour 48 when it's still snowing. You would see a little more accumulation near the coast beyond hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: This is an arctic front with a wave on it. This will snow into coastal NJ and onto LI. The guidance is slowly bringing the heaviest axis down from C New England where it had it yesterday to just N og NYC and by tomorrow it will be laying up the I95 corridor. The 3k NAM is already showing you a cold boundary. The S flow is ahead of the front, but the winds switch and the entire later cools from 850 ( which it's already -4 ) and then the 925s sweep east. This accumulates right up 95 as well as the coast It's a classic SWFE and the only reason the mid-levels don't completely torch is because of the developing SLP. Once that develops, it will gradually switch everyone over to snow as it pulls away. That's why models are showing 4-8" North and West and 1-3" for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 36 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Don't give two craps, that Southwest wind is a problem until the SLP takes over and flips the winds to out of the Northeast. That's why the coast changes to snow as the low pulls away. Yes any south wind is bad for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 34 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The wind is coming straight off the ocean, and while it has been cold, it will severely limit snow chances on the South facing shore of LI and probably in coastal Queens and Brooklyn as well. This is the type of system where Central Park records 3" and JFK sees less than half that. And in the areas just west of Raritan Bay and probably the bayshore of SI, seen this repeatedly over the years. Of course these days all kinds of weird stuff happens so . I'd never write anything off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Models might be missing the low level cold with the airmass that we have in place This looks to be mostly snow for the whole area Here is the KLGA, 06Z GFS MOS. This one statistical model data supports up to 2+" of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 GFS is coming in more amped This is going to be a very good run for inland areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: And in the areas just west of Raritan Bay and probably the bayshore of SI, seen this repeatedly over the years. Of course these days all kinds of weird stuff happens so . I'd never write anything off. I'll take a repeat of 1/23/15 5" pastejob or 2/22/08. Both were heavy wet snow events but with some mixing at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: GFS is coming in more amped This is going to be a very good run for inland areas Heavier precip over Long Island, but BL is warm. Classic boundary getting hung up near the Hudson. This use to happen all the time and is more in line with long term climo vs the last 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's a classic SWFE and the only reason the mid-levels don't completely torch is because of the developing SLP. Once that develops, it will gradually switch everyone over to snow as it pulls away. That's why models are showing 4-8" North and West and 1-3" for the coast. The models ? Where was it`s 4 to 8 when I have been calling for that over the past week ? And I am telling you the models are still wrong , this is not finished correcting. It is an anafront with a wave on it , with low level cold air an driving the column down to the surface. I have been on this since I posted on it Jan 9 and no where on the models did 4 to 8 show up N and W and now it does. The cold layer collapses in to the NEG . Even the GFS sees it / follow the 3k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: GFS is coming in more amped This is going to be a very good run for inland areas 1" or less city South and east. 4 to 8 just 20 miles north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Stormlover74 said: 1" or less city South and east. 4 to 8 just 20 miles north and west I still dont think this is mainly rain for the city I am with PB on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The models ? Where was it`s 4 to 8 when I have been calling for that over the past week ? And I am telling you the models are still wrong , this is not finished correcting. It is an anafront with a wave on it , with low level cold air an driving the column down to the surface. I have been on this since I posted on it Jan 9 and no where on the models did 4 to 8 show up N and W and now it does. The cold layer collapses in to the NEG . Even the GFS sees it / follow the 3k NAM. LOL I just posted the GFS hour 54 temps. By hour 60, the line has collapsed East but precip is rapidly ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I still dont think this is mainly rain for the city I am with PB on this one h7 is like -10C and h85 is -5C for the city and Nassau....it won't take much for it to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: LOL I just posted the GFS hour 54 temps. By hour 60, the line has collapsed East but precip is rapidly ending. He's not going by the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: I still dont think this is mainly rain for the city I am with PB on this one Mainly rain for Staten Island, Southern Queens and most of Brooklyn. Northern Queens, Bronx and upper Manhattan could see double what the aforementioned areas receive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 High bust potential is huge IMO BL is close and we'll have to keep an eye on if modeling is over doing the warmth. QPF clearly on the rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: LOL I just posted the GFS hour 54 temps. By hour 60, the line has collapsed East but precip is rapidly ending. It`s - 4 at 850 on a NE wind and you are looking at a precip grid ? Dude , is this your 1st time doing this ? Look at the DP s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: High bust potential is huge IMO BL is close and we'll have to keep an eye on if modeling is over doing the warmth. QPF clearly on the rise. GFS is around 33 for the area with rain as per this model run That's very close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: h7 is like -10C and h85 is -5C for the city and Nassau....it won't take much for it to snow He loses this battle every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: He's not going by the models And his only argument is that models aren't seeing the low level cold. That's not exactly scientific reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: h7 is like -10C and h85 is -5C for the city and Nassau....it won't take much for it to snow Thats snow IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: It`s - 4 at 850 on a NE wind and you are looking at a precip grid ? Dude , is this your 1st time doing this ? Look at the DP s Don't care about the mid-levels. It's the BL which has always been the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: GFS is around 33 for the area with rain as per this model run That's very close In reality it's probably not rain with a NE wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Don't care about the mid-levels. It's the BL which has always been the issue. The Hi res NAM is 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: And his only argument is that models aren't seeing the low level cold. That's not exactly scientific reasoning. I said the same thing It's true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Anyone that's using the models from hour 48 and beyond are missing the first 12 hours of precip which is when temperatures are an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Don't care about the mid-levels. It's the BL which has always been the issue. It's not like its 37 degrees - it's right around freezing at the surface....with all levels above sufficiently cold enough for snow. It might be wet snow that doesn't accumulate but I don;t think it's just plain rain, based on the thermal profile - it could be for areas like JFK, Woodmere (where I am) and Long Beach but I doubt the city is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: It`s - 4 at 850 on a NE wind and you are looking at a precip grid ? Dude , is this your 1st time doing this ? Look at the DP s Yea I gotta agree with PB here, The dews look good and along an arctic front like this the cold can come in like a wedge right "underneath" any warm layer. Imagine driving a doorjam into a door swinging shut, it's going to stop that door and that wedge will hold it. I can't argue against a strong cold front coming in like this, with increasing precip rates and favorable dewpoints, I can't see how this is mostly rain for any of these areas. Despite a SW flow initially, it wouldn't take even the weakest of lows off the coast to be able to moderate the potential for increasing BL temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I still dont think this is mainly rain for the city I am with PB on this one Just talking about what the GFS shows verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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