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1/16-17 Anafrontal/Coastal Low Snows Disco/Obs


Zelocita Weather

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1 minute ago, Zelocita Weather said:

Wow, new NAM, verbatim would be at least a 3-6" across most of N NJ, NYC, LI, CT, NY State with possible more to come...

Temperatures are an issue South and East of NYC, and possibly in the city itself. Wind direction is out of the Southwest.

sketched_5a5cba9b51778.png

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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nice 2-4 on the NAM for NYC per Pivotal maps and more inland areas.

Have to consider all of the other individual models data plus its too early to rely on snowfall maps especially since there are so many moving parts with these systems - a few miles either way can change those totals considerably in either direction...……...

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2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Have to consider all of the other individual models data plus its too early to rely on snowfall maps especially since there are so many moving parts with these systems - a few miles either way can change those totals considerably in either direction...……...

I agree

Just pointing it out

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7 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

3K looks colder

 

Which is what will happen.

 

This is an arctic front so most of the precip will be behind the front and the mid levels and 2 meters will cool accordingly.

This continues to be a moderate event and the models will continue to fix the 2m at the coast.

Look for a 3 to 6 , 4 to 8 type system for many parts of the area from CNJ on N. 

 

 

hires_t2m_nyc_37  JAN 15 NAM 3K.png

hires_t2m_nyc_40 JAN 12 NAM 3K PART 2.png

 

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Don't give two craps, that Southwest wind is a problem until the SLP takes over and flips the winds to out of the Northeast. That's why the coast changes to snow as the low pulls away.

It will come down to precip rates to determine if BL temps drop enough. 850's are more than cold enough and 925 is just below freezing all the way to coast. This is all with the grain of salt that the NAM will likely change every run until the storm starts tomorrow night. Night time precip time will help

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Just now, mikem81 said:

It will come down to precip rates to determine if BL temps drop enough. 850's are more than cold enough and 925 is just below freezing all the way to coast. This is all with the grain of salt that the NAM will likely change every run until the storm starts tomorrow night. Night time precip time will help

The wind is coming straight off the ocean, and while it has been cold, it will severely limit snow chances on the South facing shore of LI and probably in coastal Queens and Brooklyn as well. This is the type of system where Central Park records 3" and JFK sees less than half that.

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4 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

It will come down to precip rates to determine if BL temps drop enough. 850's are more than cold enough and 925 is just below freezing all the way to coast. This is all with the grain of salt that the NAM will likely change every run until the storm starts tomorrow night. Night time precip time will help

I agree

Surface temps on the 3k Nam is near freezing.  I doubt this will be mostly frozen for the coast with this airmass in place.

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The wind is coming straight off the ocean, and while it has been cold, it will severely limit snow chances on the South facing shore of LI and probably in coastal Queens and Brooklyn as well. This is the type of system where Central Park records 3" and JFK sees less than half that.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065

 

Ocean is pretty cold for this time of year...

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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Models might be missing the low level cold with the airmass that we have in place

This looks to be mostly snow for the whole area

Take the snow goggles off.

You have a Southwest wind, and if that warm air advection precip is real, it's going to bring the warm air with it, that's the nature of SWFE.

The coast has a chance to change over to snow as the SLP pulls away, but it's weak.

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

12z RGEM totals

5a5cc55b7b2c5.png

Surprised it gets the 2 to 4 down to the CT coast! I am taking it and running if this is correct. However, I have seen many a storm in my past where Long Island Sound is the dividing line even though we were expecting rain. Will be close.

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Take the snow goggles off.

You have a Southwest wind, and if that warm air advection precip is real, it's going to bring the warm air with it, that's the nature of SWFE.

This is an arctic front with a wave on it.

This will snow into coastal NJ and onto LI.

The guidance is slowly bringing the heaviest axis down from C New England where it had it yesterday to just N og NYC and by tomorrow it will be laying up the I95 corridor.

The 3k NAM is already showing you a cold boundary.

The S flow is ahead of the front,  but the winds switch and the entire later cools from 850 ( which it's already -4 ) and then the 925s sweep east.

 

This accumulates right up 95 as well as the coast 

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's more neutrally tilted than the 12z NAM but still strongly positive. You need that to close off over Tennessee to have a chance at wave 2. 

Yeah looking at it on tropical tidbits the 12z RGEM definitely has higher heights along the EC and a slower front compared to the 12Z NAM. I hate to extrapolate, but I would assume the 12Z RGEM would close off that second piece for a bit at least. Still probably won't be enough, but its an improvement over its last run.

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