MJO812 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Upton has 1-3 inches for the NYC area with more north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 NAM, still early but looks like a nice hit for most of the area Tue Night/Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Albany’s going with a moderate event up here, I’d take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Models are keying in on an area of enhanced lift over the interior, seen here on the 12z NAM. That area then expands some and slides East, getting most of Long Island and SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 0.50"+ North and West of the NYC, a bit less to the Southeast. Solid 4"+ for most of the interior and 1-3" for the coast with marginal BL in the mid 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Wow, new NAM, verbatim would be at least a 3-6" across most of N NJ, NYC, LI, CT, NY State with possible more to come... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Zelocita Weather said: Wow, new NAM, verbatim would be at least a 3-6" across most of N NJ, NYC, LI, CT, NY State with possible more to come... Temperatures are an issue South and East of NYC, and possibly in the city itself. Wind direction is out of the Southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Nice 2-4 on the NAM for NYC per Pivotal maps and more inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Temperatures are an issue South and East of NYC, and possibly in the city itself. Wind direction is out of the Southwest. 3K looks colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nice 2-4 on the NAM for NYC per Pivotal maps and more inland areas. Biggest snow of the year possible in my area. Sorta of a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nice 2-4 on the NAM for NYC per Pivotal maps and more inland areas. Have to consider all of the other individual models data plus its too early to rely on snowfall maps especially since there are so many moving parts with these systems - a few miles either way can change those totals considerably in either direction...……... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Animal said: Biggest snow of the year possible in my area. Sorta of a big deal. Inland areas look good for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Have to consider all of the other individual models data plus its too early to rely on snowfall maps especially since there are so many moving parts with these systems - a few miles either way can change those totals considerably in either direction...……... I agree Just pointing it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, mikem81 said: 3K looks colder Which is what will happen. This is an arctic front so most of the precip will be behind the front and the mid levels and 2 meters will cool accordingly. This continues to be a moderate event and the models will continue to fix the 2m at the coast. Look for a 3 to 6 , 4 to 8 type system for many parts of the area from CNJ on N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3k Nam is further east and all snow near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 19 minutes ago, mikem81 said: 3K looks colder Don't give two craps, that Southwest wind is a problem until the SLP takes over and flips the winds to out of the Northeast. That's why the coast changes to snow as the low pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Don't give two craps, that Southwest wind is a problem until the SLP takes over and flips the winds to out of the Northeast. That's why the coast changes to snow as the low pulls away. It will come down to precip rates to determine if BL temps drop enough. 850's are more than cold enough and 925 is just below freezing all the way to coast. This is all with the grain of salt that the NAM will likely change every run until the storm starts tomorrow night. Night time precip time will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, mikem81 said: It will come down to precip rates to determine if BL temps drop enough. 850's are more than cold enough and 925 is just below freezing all the way to coast. This is all with the grain of salt that the NAM will likely change every run until the storm starts tomorrow night. Night time precip time will help The wind is coming straight off the ocean, and while it has been cold, it will severely limit snow chances on the South facing shore of LI and probably in coastal Queens and Brooklyn as well. This is the type of system where Central Park records 3" and JFK sees less than half that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, mikem81 said: It will come down to precip rates to determine if BL temps drop enough. 850's are more than cold enough and 925 is just below freezing all the way to coast. This is all with the grain of salt that the NAM will likely change every run until the storm starts tomorrow night. Night time precip time will help I agree Surface temps on the 3k Nam is near freezing. I doubt this will be mostly frozen for the coast with this airmass in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The wind is coming straight off the ocean, and while it has been cold, it will severely limit snow chances on the South facing shore of LI and probably in coastal Queens and Brooklyn as well. This is the type of system where Central Park records 3" and JFK sees less than half that. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065 Ocean is pretty cold for this time of year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065 Ocean is pretty cold for this time of year... Short of the ocean being frozen over it's not going to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Short of the ocean being frozen over it's not going to help. Models might be missing the low level cold with the airmass that we have in place This looks to be mostly snow for the whole area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Tough to tell, but 12z RGEM looks really amped down south with that second piece at 48 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Models might be missing the low level cold with the airmass that we have in place This looks to be mostly snow for the whole area Take the snow goggles off. You have a Southwest wind, and if that warm air advection precip is real, it's going to bring the warm air with it, that's the nature of SWFE. The coast has a chance to change over to snow as the SLP pulls away, but it's weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z RGEM totals Surprised it gets the 2 to 4 down to the CT coast! I am taking it and running if this is correct. However, I have seen many a storm in my past where Long Island Sound is the dividing line even though we were expecting rain. Will be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ace said: Tough to tell, but 12z RGEM looks really amped down south with that second piece at 48 hr. It's more neutrally tilted than the 12z NAM but still strongly positive. You need that to close off over Tennessee to have a chance at wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Take the snow goggles off. You have a Southwest wind, and if that warm air advection precip is real, it's going to bring the warm air with it, that's the nature of SWFE. This is an arctic front with a wave on it. This will snow into coastal NJ and onto LI. The guidance is slowly bringing the heaviest axis down from C New England where it had it yesterday to just N og NYC and by tomorrow it will be laying up the I95 corridor. The 3k NAM is already showing you a cold boundary. The S flow is ahead of the front, but the winds switch and the entire later cools from 850 ( which it's already -4 ) and then the 925s sweep east. This accumulates right up 95 as well as the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's more neutrally tilted than the 12z NAM but still strongly positive. You need that to close off over Tennessee to have a chance at wave 2. Yeah looking at it on tropical tidbits the 12z RGEM definitely has higher heights along the EC and a slower front compared to the 12Z NAM. I hate to extrapolate, but I would assume the 12Z RGEM would close off that second piece for a bit at least. Still probably won't be enough, but its an improvement over its last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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